Yellin & the News

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Welcome to Something More with Chris Boyd.

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Chris Boyd is a certified financial planner, practitioner,

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and senior vice president and financial advisor at

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Wealth Enhancement Group, one of the nation's largest

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registered investment advisors.

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We call it Something More because we'd like

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to talk not only about those important dollar

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and cents issues, but also the quality of

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life issues that make the money matters matter.

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Here he is, your fulfillment facilitator, your partner

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in prosperity, advising clients on Cape Cod and

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across the country.

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Here's your host, Jay Christopher Boyd.

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Welcome to another episode of Something More with

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Chris Boyd.

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And Jeff Perry is joining me.

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We are both of the AMR team of

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Wealth Enhancement Group and glad to have you

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here.

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Jeff, it felt like the old days today.

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I was coming.

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Oh boy, what's that?

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I've been collecting newspapers over the last week

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or so.

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Where'd you get them?

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Well, just the Wall Street Journal, you know,

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I've been collecting and Barron's and stuff.

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And so, you know, they come in and

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often I read things online, but, you know,

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so I, but they still, I think, I

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forget what it was, but there was one

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of these things where they was like, oh,

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it's cheaper to get the paper than it

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is to just get it.

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Which is kind of annoying, but in any

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case.

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I think that has something to do with

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the advertisers.

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Yeah, that must be it.

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So I got my stack of papers, like

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the radio days.

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And you've talked about that before.

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So that's why I brought that for you.

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But I thought we'd talk a little bit

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about news items this week.

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As we just over the last week, there's

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been all this accumulation of things that I

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thought, let's talk about a variety of these

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and get some perspective out of that.

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But before we do, after talking about, you

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know, oh, the radio days.

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I was at home on Saturday and my

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mom calls and says, hey, can I stop

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by you around?

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Sure.

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She comes by with this beautiful, huge orchid

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from Verde and Mashpee Commons.

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And a little card that says, congratulations on

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your 18th anniversary of the show.

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So I was like, anniversary of thinking, you

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know, at first, but it was the radio

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show, now podcast that she was, I'll spare

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you the rest.

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She's gushing about how proud she is of

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me.

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Anyone who knows you and your mom knows

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how proud she is.

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So I can envision what the rest of

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the card said.

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It's very nice.

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And I was not even thinking about it

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because you were on last weekend with Russ

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and I enjoyed those podcasts, but while I

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was out of town.

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So every year, I mean, being on the

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radio and podcasts and having that commitment to

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do it every week and have meaningful content.

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And it's something to stop and say, wow,

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another year.

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We're still doing it.

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Yeah, we're still doing it.

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So we've got 20 in our sites, right?

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Definitely.

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You can see it ahead.

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Yeah.

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So anyway, so fun to celebrate an anniversary.

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We've done shows like the 10 and 5

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and 15.

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There's been some like significance of, oh, what

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did we do in retrospective and so forth.

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But it's fun to step back and think.

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It's important to do it.

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It's an accomplishment.

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And, you know, you'll never know.

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It's like so many things in life, but

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you'll never know the people that you impacted

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and how they impacted.

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Certainly, some of them became clients because, you

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know, that people say, you know, I heard

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you on the radio.

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I listened to your podcast, whatever it is.

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And so there's a direct correlation of that,

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you know, people benefit from it.

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But there's also a lot of people who

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gain motivation to do something that they should,

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you know, whether that's to fix something like

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attack their debt or whether it's to start

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investing or whether it's to hire an advisor,

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you know, all take positive steps in their

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life and you'll never know.

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And it's not insignificant.

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I can 18 years, thousands of shows and

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hours, all these different guests we've had and

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charitable organizations along the way that hopefully that's

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been some of the impact.

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Whenever I'm complimenting you, you shift the topic.

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You have that habit.

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I'll just start by saying, thank you.

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How's that?

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You do that every time.

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I think it's not just me.

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I think it's just your humility.

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When I was growing up, my mom instilled

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in me that it was important not to

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be braggadocious or to be, you know, full

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of yourself.

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So I think it's part of that upbringing.

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I could be a wise guy and say,

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did your mom teach you not to interrupt

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people?

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She did.

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Sorry.

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She disappointed me.

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I'm not going to go back to it,

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but congratulations for the 18 years, Mr. Boyd.

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It is an accomplishment.

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Thanks.

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Thank you.

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And no, you know, the reason I started

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the program, yes, we wanted to get visibility

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for our work and recognition if people wanted

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to connect with us.

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But it was truly the motivation was to

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try to have impact and to influence our

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listeners for the better.

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We've tried to have a show that is

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constructive and respectful.

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And, you know, at different times we've covered,

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you know, politics and we've talked about things

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totally off topic of finance, but always tried

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to have that kind of tone where it

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was about something positive, something constructive.

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Substantive.

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Yeah.

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Substantive.

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And ultimately we've, you know, really over the

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last five years or so, really zoomed in

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on trying to focus more on financial content

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exclusively, maybe even less than that.

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But, you know, we're really focused on the

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financial content these days.

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But again, the motivation is that we want

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people to come away with this show and

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having had an experience that lifts them up,

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helps them in some form, helps in their

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financial planning and their journey, but their life

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journey, more importantly, not strictly their finances.

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And not just what's in their wallet.

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Right.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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It's about more than the stuff.

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Right.

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So in any case, thank you for your

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comment.

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In any case, we hope people will continue

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to listen and share the show and benefit

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from it.

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So today we're going to talk a little

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bit about what's been happening in the news.

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And to start that off, I thought I

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had occasion to go to a talk, the

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CFA society of Boston on May 1st invited

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Janet Yellen as their guest for their big

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meeting, their 39th annual market dinner.

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And I had the benefit of being invited

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by the capital group, the capital funds sorry,

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capital group, American funds to attend.

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And so thanks to them for the invitation.

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And maybe we can just talk a little

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bit about that, Jeff, for a minute.

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I shared with you some of my notes.

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And what I would say is interesting is

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first off, Janet Yellen is really kind of

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interesting individual in so far as first female

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to be a Fed secretary, Fed chair, first

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female treasury secretary.

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Right.

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Sort of a trendsetter in certain regards.

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At the same time, no shock as to

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her political leanings.

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She has been appointed by Democrat administrations in

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these posts.

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So when her comments about what's going on

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to start off with referred to the idea

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that broad based tariffs, she used a couple

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of words like blowtorch and wrecking ball at

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times in the mix, which she wasn't really

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being flamethrowing, but these were comments that she

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happened to mention, which I'm pretty sure she

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knew they were going to get.

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Which I made note of because they were.

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And she was clearly saying she was not

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a fan of broad based tariffs, this drastic

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change in policy, that there was a risk

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that these would drive costs higher, increase uncertainty,

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delay business investment because of the uncertainty, perhaps

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contribute to a decline in consumer spending or

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capital spending because of this, let's see what

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really transpires kind of mindset, raise the probability

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of a recession and the likelihood of inflation

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being an issue that we need to contend

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with.

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Though maybe not prolonged, maybe that issue of

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it could be a one shot deal, right?

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It could be.

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TBD, right?

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Her comments aren't really unique.

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We're hearing them from a lot of credible

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sources, a lot of political sources, right?

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It's exactly right.

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Nothing that she said struck me as, I

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guess, unexpected in a sense.

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She's threading the needle a bit.

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Meaning during when President Biden was president and

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he opposed tariffs on China, she was talking

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about the benefits.

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Now, there's a distinction, but I'm just...

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To your point, she did make that point

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as well, that targeted tariffs are maybe a

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different thing than broad based tariffs, right?

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That targeted tariffs, this issue with China is

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this question that I think everyone has frustrations

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relating to intellectual property theft when it comes

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to the lack of openness of markets.

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You did see in Trump 1.0, increasing

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tariffs on China with respect to this.

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In the Biden administration, they retained those tariffs.

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They didn't try to change that.

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And enhance them in some ways.

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Her comments at that time, of course, I

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went back and read them because I remembered

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and just wanted to see how her position

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had changed.

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And it is different.

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I'm not being critical.

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I'm just saying she's making these comments in

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the context of previously supporting tariffs for many

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of the same underlying reasons that President Trump...

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I think the difference is scale, right?

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Absolutely.

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There is a difference.

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Scale, broad based, but she did support...

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We'll just talk about China for a second.

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Tariffs in China to protect US manufacturing, to

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protect certain sectors of our business economy.

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Yeah.

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Actually, she did talk about certain sectors where

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there could be some really intentional targeting that

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would make sense.

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I don't remember exactly all of them that

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she mentioned, but there were a few specifics

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when it came to AI and clean energy

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and certain things like that that were things

275
00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:44,080
that we might want to try to have

276
00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:47,540
the opportunity to cultivate as a industry and

277
00:12:47,540 --> 00:12:49,060
so forth before...

278
00:12:50,300 --> 00:12:53,000
But I do think the difference is this

279
00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:57,840
expectation of a long-term solution or a

280
00:12:57,840 --> 00:12:59,300
temporary fix, right?

281
00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:03,460
Some of these kinds of things, the perspective

282
00:13:03,460 --> 00:13:03,760
on it.

283
00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:08,980
But in any event, yeah, I follow your

284
00:13:08,980 --> 00:13:09,260
point.

285
00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:10,660
I don't think it was...

286
00:13:10,660 --> 00:13:12,720
I didn't take it as hypocritical because she

287
00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:15,300
did, in the content of the talk, she

288
00:13:15,300 --> 00:13:18,860
did offer caveats to the point that you're

289
00:13:18,860 --> 00:13:19,720
making, I think.

290
00:13:20,140 --> 00:13:21,720
I didn't suggest it was.

291
00:13:22,100 --> 00:13:25,460
I'm just pointing out that she's not anti

292
00:13:25,460 --> 00:13:26,000
-tariff.

293
00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:30,180
She is anti this policy, this broad-based

294
00:13:30,180 --> 00:13:30,400
policy.

295
00:13:30,420 --> 00:13:35,620
The whole notion of reshaping trade, rearranging the

296
00:13:35,620 --> 00:13:37,580
world order when it comes to trade.

297
00:13:37,580 --> 00:13:41,320
I guess my pushback for her would be

298
00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:46,940
Trump 1.0 didn't work to achieve these

299
00:13:46,940 --> 00:13:47,320
goals.

300
00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:53,020
Biden's administration was not successful to achieve these

301
00:13:53,020 --> 00:13:53,300
goals.

302
00:13:53,540 --> 00:13:55,240
I know we're just focusing on China and

303
00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:56,500
Trump's doing a lot more than that, and

304
00:13:56,500 --> 00:13:58,020
I don't support all the things he's doing.

305
00:13:59,620 --> 00:14:00,580
But perhaps...

306
00:14:00,580 --> 00:14:03,580
I'm trying not to be a defender of

307
00:14:03,580 --> 00:14:05,100
what he's doing, but I'm trying to say

308
00:14:05,100 --> 00:14:08,040
maybe there is a reason for this president

309
00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:10,200
or for whoever the president is to try

310
00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:13,040
something different because what we've done before has

311
00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:13,580
not worked.

312
00:14:17,980 --> 00:14:20,980
Well, I'll just continue with some of the

313
00:14:20,980 --> 00:14:23,460
content of what else was discussed in the

314
00:14:23,460 --> 00:14:28,000
talk rather than going down that rabbit hole.

315
00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:28,380
Okay.

316
00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:38,940
So, additionally, the notion of trade deficits as

317
00:14:38,940 --> 00:14:42,480
an issue.

318
00:14:45,340 --> 00:14:48,700
She questioned the effectiveness of reducing trade deficits

319
00:14:48,700 --> 00:14:53,160
and restoring as a way to restore domestic

320
00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:53,800
jobs.

321
00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:58,920
I think some of the discussion was, are

322
00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:04,480
these really the jobs we want to build

323
00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:05,920
in the United States?

324
00:15:06,060 --> 00:15:12,360
Is it better to bring those jobs back

325
00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:13,640
in some respects?

326
00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:16,940
Are the quality of the jobs the jobs

327
00:15:16,940 --> 00:15:19,540
we really would like to grow?

328
00:15:19,820 --> 00:15:21,180
That's a real important question.

329
00:15:21,800 --> 00:15:22,020
Yeah.

330
00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:29,740
We benefit by buying cheap goods overseas that

331
00:15:29,740 --> 00:15:31,540
we use every day, whether it be a

332
00:15:31,540 --> 00:15:34,040
plastic bowl, or whether it be a baseball

333
00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:35,600
or whatever it is.

334
00:15:37,140 --> 00:15:40,140
And this was her argument when she was

335
00:15:40,140 --> 00:15:43,300
supporting President Biden's certain sectors.

336
00:15:43,780 --> 00:15:48,580
The United States needs a manufacturing capability on

337
00:15:48,580 --> 00:15:51,760
our soil for national security, for jobs, for

338
00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:54,620
the future, for supply chains, as was evident

339
00:15:54,620 --> 00:15:56,420
in the COVID years.

340
00:15:56,680 --> 00:15:59,100
So, I think she's right on in that

341
00:15:59,100 --> 00:15:59,560
respect.

342
00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:05,980
CHIPS Act, which Republicans and Democrats, something that's

343
00:16:05,980 --> 00:16:08,860
not political per se, is a great example

344
00:16:08,860 --> 00:16:10,840
of that, where the parties came together and

345
00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:13,860
recognized that we need computer chips, certain types

346
00:16:13,860 --> 00:16:16,380
of computer chips manufactured in the United States.

347
00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:17,080
Yeah.

348
00:16:17,140 --> 00:16:18,280
And I think that's a good point.

349
00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:20,360
There are certain industries and certain...

350
00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:25,580
It may be just important that we do

351
00:16:25,580 --> 00:16:29,780
continue to have the viability of these businesses,

352
00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:31,640
and it may be in our national interest.

353
00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:34,250
Steel may be an example of...

354
00:16:34,920 --> 00:16:36,480
I think steel's one of them, yeah.

355
00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:38,920
You can point to certain kinds of chips,

356
00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:42,120
clearly, as there's certain priorities when it comes

357
00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:45,320
to weaponry technology that comes out of that.

358
00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:47,220
We don't want to have to import our

359
00:16:47,220 --> 00:16:50,580
defense products from an adversary.

360
00:16:50,960 --> 00:16:51,100
Right.

361
00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:51,800
Exactly.

362
00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:52,200
Exactly.

363
00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:55,000
So, yeah, I think that's one of the

364
00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:57,080
things that came out of the experience of

365
00:16:57,080 --> 00:16:59,760
the pandemic and in the first Trump administration

366
00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:02,440
that there was heightened awareness around.

367
00:17:02,540 --> 00:17:05,319
And I think that was probably a valid

368
00:17:05,319 --> 00:17:11,119
realization that we need to make change, and

369
00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:13,880
that's part of what came out of that,

370
00:17:13,940 --> 00:17:14,119
I think.

371
00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:18,720
The other point that Jenny Yellen talked about

372
00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:20,260
was, what do you call her?

373
00:17:20,319 --> 00:17:22,800
Secretary Yellen or chair?

374
00:17:23,260 --> 00:17:25,300
I would say secretary is probably...

375
00:17:25,300 --> 00:17:27,280
You call them their highest position, right?

376
00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:28,140
That they've achieved.

377
00:17:28,380 --> 00:17:28,580
The highest?

378
00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:29,660
I would think so.

379
00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:30,060
Yeah.

380
00:17:30,220 --> 00:17:30,940
So in any case...

381
00:17:30,940 --> 00:17:31,880
Cabinet secretary, yeah.

382
00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:34,200
She pointed to the notion of fiscal policy

383
00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:40,460
as, look, if we want to reduce our

384
00:17:40,460 --> 00:17:44,060
deficits, our trade deficits, as well as our

385
00:17:44,060 --> 00:17:47,560
own deficit in terms of the budget deficit,

386
00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:51,520
that this is probably where this should focus.

387
00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:54,580
Fiscal policy would be a big part of

388
00:17:54,580 --> 00:17:55,200
how to deal with that.

389
00:17:57,540 --> 00:18:02,140
So, yeah, you mentioned this targeted, maybe targeted

390
00:18:02,140 --> 00:18:05,260
support for certain types of manufacturing.

391
00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:08,140
I'm trying to remember what else.

392
00:18:08,140 --> 00:18:10,280
Which typically has, this type of manufacturing we're

393
00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:12,160
talking about, typically has higher wages for the

394
00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:12,680
employees.

395
00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:15,800
So that's something that we want.

396
00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:16,400
Yeah.

397
00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:19,240
We don't want to create a million new

398
00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:21,080
jobs of minimum wage jobs.

399
00:18:21,620 --> 00:18:21,800
Right.

400
00:18:21,900 --> 00:18:24,700
I mean, we need minimum wage jobs, but

401
00:18:24,700 --> 00:18:27,640
that should not be our policy as a

402
00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:30,420
country to create jobs that people can't survive

403
00:18:30,420 --> 00:18:30,740
on.

404
00:18:32,120 --> 00:18:36,980
She talked about having been involved in negotiating

405
00:18:36,980 --> 00:18:39,900
with other countries in her time as treasury

406
00:18:39,900 --> 00:18:43,660
secretary, and that a lot of nations are

407
00:18:43,660 --> 00:18:45,940
just a little bit, you know, just puzzled,

408
00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:47,740
like what to make of this.

409
00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:53,340
And that the way we're interacting with friend

410
00:18:53,340 --> 00:18:56,160
and foe, kind of lumping everybody into this

411
00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:58,760
one bucket of, hey, we're being screwed, you

412
00:18:58,760 --> 00:18:59,980
know, kind of mindset.

413
00:19:00,860 --> 00:19:02,840
Certainly doesn't make sense to treat every country,

414
00:19:02,900 --> 00:19:04,560
no matter what their posture with you, with

415
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:05,820
us is the same.

416
00:19:06,300 --> 00:19:08,160
And on that note, hopefully you have some

417
00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:08,700
good news.

418
00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:11,140
You know, so much news that's floated is

419
00:19:11,140 --> 00:19:12,680
not actually fact.

420
00:19:13,020 --> 00:19:14,200
So, yeah, that's a good point.

421
00:19:14,380 --> 00:19:18,280
But we do have a potential agreement, you

422
00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:19,320
know, in the news this week.

423
00:19:20,580 --> 00:19:24,800
Yeah, with Thursday, midday, the 8th of May.

424
00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:25,860
So there is a...

425
00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:28,880
Sounds like the beginnings of a deal with

426
00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:29,480
UK, huh?

427
00:19:29,580 --> 00:19:31,460
There is a teaser out there that's happening.

428
00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:34,960
And the United States representatives and Chinese representatives

429
00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:36,860
are meeting in Switzerland coming up, I think

430
00:19:36,860 --> 00:19:37,460
this weekend.

431
00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:41,360
So, hopefully, there'll be something good coming out

432
00:19:41,360 --> 00:19:42,520
of that, something constructive.

433
00:19:46,100 --> 00:19:46,580
Yeah.

434
00:19:46,780 --> 00:19:50,580
So another question that I just, I'll get

435
00:19:50,580 --> 00:19:52,160
through Janet Yellen, and we'll move on to

436
00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:53,020
more news items.

437
00:19:53,140 --> 00:19:54,460
That's, those are big ones.

438
00:19:56,840 --> 00:20:00,860
She was asked about the dollar reserve status.

439
00:20:01,140 --> 00:20:02,940
You know, would that, is this something you

440
00:20:02,940 --> 00:20:04,900
see changing in light of all these dynamics

441
00:20:04,900 --> 00:20:08,160
of what's happening in the world with trade?

442
00:20:09,340 --> 00:20:11,880
And basically, the answer was, not for a

443
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:12,360
long time.

444
00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:14,640
And we keep hearing that.

445
00:20:15,500 --> 00:20:17,480
But that sounded like it.

446
00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:19,080
There was talk about crypto.

447
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:22,200
And that's also been in the news a

448
00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:25,240
little bit lately with regard to some issues

449
00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:28,500
with the Trump administration, or not administration, Trump

450
00:20:28,500 --> 00:20:32,660
family, having some ties to crypto and so

451
00:20:32,660 --> 00:20:32,980
forth.

452
00:20:32,980 --> 00:20:34,840
We'll come back and talk about that at

453
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:35,280
some point.

454
00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:40,600
But just generally, she was asked, you know,

455
00:20:40,660 --> 00:20:42,540
about, you know, this sort of change in

456
00:20:42,540 --> 00:20:46,460
tone on the regulatory environment with respect to

457
00:20:46,460 --> 00:20:46,800
crypto.

458
00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:52,760
And she said she remained skeptical about crypto

459
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:59,560
as something appealing generally for people because of

460
00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:04,560
the lack of transparency, the volatility, and this

461
00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:09,120
weak regulatory setting where there's, you know, weak

462
00:21:09,120 --> 00:21:10,600
protections for the consumer.

463
00:21:11,580 --> 00:21:14,160
She was also asked about private credit, which

464
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:16,160
Brian talks about from time to time as

465
00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:19,000
a possible worry point.

466
00:21:19,820 --> 00:21:23,060
And she actually said, although, you know, private

467
00:21:23,060 --> 00:21:27,960
credit has certain attractive benefits, so she'll start

468
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:32,400
off positive about it, but then said, again,

469
00:21:32,580 --> 00:21:38,940
it lacks transparency and that there's some, she

470
00:21:38,940 --> 00:21:42,280
said there's less systemic risk than feared, maybe.

471
00:21:42,700 --> 00:21:44,060
I shouldn't say it that way, but that

472
00:21:44,060 --> 00:21:45,600
was the way I interpret it.

473
00:21:46,340 --> 00:21:49,280
Though there are risks there, you know, there

474
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:50,040
are risks there.

475
00:21:51,020 --> 00:21:51,820
Certainly are.

476
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:53,720
And lack of transparency is one thing.

477
00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:55,680
And I think a lot of people think

478
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:56,500
it's less volatile.

479
00:21:57,140 --> 00:21:59,740
And it's less volatile because it's not marked

480
00:21:59,740 --> 00:22:01,340
up every 10 seconds.

481
00:22:01,340 --> 00:22:03,000
Yeah, exactly.

482
00:22:03,260 --> 00:22:06,100
People don't see what the market would, or

483
00:22:06,100 --> 00:22:08,320
a buyer would value it at because it's

484
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:08,480
not.

485
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:10,640
Less liquid, less accessible.

486
00:22:11,540 --> 00:22:14,820
But does that cause people to have a

487
00:22:14,820 --> 00:22:17,280
fire sale, you know, on other assets?

488
00:22:17,740 --> 00:22:23,900
Does it create the potential for volatility or

489
00:22:23,900 --> 00:22:28,460
disruption in other asset classes when people do

490
00:22:28,460 --> 00:22:30,340
have needs, you know, because anyway.

491
00:22:30,340 --> 00:22:30,900
Yep.

492
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:32,900
All right.

493
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:37,980
So you talked about trade a little bit

494
00:22:37,980 --> 00:22:44,620
with the notion of the, I think it

495
00:22:44,620 --> 00:22:46,800
sounds like some potential developments.

496
00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:52,140
I had gone through these newspapers that I

497
00:22:52,140 --> 00:22:57,060
waved around to you earlier, and I had

498
00:22:57,060 --> 00:22:59,840
topics on all kinds of subject matter.

499
00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:04,180
And trade and tariffs is one of them.

500
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:09,760
So one of the headlines was China feeling

501
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:10,580
the trade war.

502
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:15,820
The idea that their economy is also feeling

503
00:23:15,820 --> 00:23:16,240
this.

504
00:23:16,420 --> 00:23:18,620
It's not just the impact that we're going

505
00:23:18,620 --> 00:23:19,040
to feel.

506
00:23:19,340 --> 00:23:21,340
Well, that's the whole plan.

507
00:23:21,580 --> 00:23:25,200
That's the leverage that President Trump thinks he

508
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:25,620
has.

509
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:29,720
I'm just going to rifle through a few

510
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:31,860
of these that were related to trade.

511
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:32,560
Go ahead.

512
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:35,240
And then you decide if any we want

513
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:35,800
to talk about.

514
00:23:36,140 --> 00:23:36,300
OK?

515
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:37,160
OK.

516
00:23:37,940 --> 00:23:40,780
So the China thing we just hit on.

517
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:44,260
Trade deficits balloon as companies stockpile.

518
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:49,940
Countries worldwide are attempting to deepen their trade

519
00:23:49,940 --> 00:23:53,360
ties to offset pain from US, so other

520
00:23:53,360 --> 00:23:54,940
countries amongst themselves.

521
00:23:56,140 --> 00:23:59,860
Some manufacturers in the US see uptick in

522
00:23:59,860 --> 00:24:03,000
orders from companies looking to avoid tariffs.

523
00:24:03,820 --> 00:24:05,940
I guess that's related to what I said

524
00:24:05,940 --> 00:24:06,220
earlier.

525
00:24:06,620 --> 00:24:09,500
Retailers may be keeping prices steady for the

526
00:24:09,500 --> 00:24:14,340
moment, but unstable and worn to expect shortages.

527
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:19,740
Wall Street Journal reporting that of trade deal

528
00:24:19,740 --> 00:24:22,240
framework with UK, which you just talked about.

529
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:26,760
And then kind of unrelated to all of

530
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:29,520
those, but happened in the last week was

531
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:30,740
the Canadian elections.

532
00:24:30,740 --> 00:24:33,000
And we had the visit from the Canadian

533
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:34,320
Prime Minister.

534
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:35,980
Carney, is it?

535
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:38,500
Not for sale.

536
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:39,240
Not ever.

537
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:40,770
It didn't seem like a...

538
00:24:41,580 --> 00:24:44,500
It doesn't seem like Canada's close to a

539
00:24:44,500 --> 00:24:44,700
deal.

540
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:48,980
Well, it sounded like they're happy to talk.

541
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:49,840
Happy to talk.

542
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:54,000
But they're not intending to...

543
00:24:56,420 --> 00:24:58,180
To me, it seemed like they had...

544
00:24:58,180 --> 00:24:59,140
Yeah, don't want to get bullied.

545
00:25:00,120 --> 00:25:03,260
And that's if I was Canada, I think

546
00:25:03,260 --> 00:25:04,660
that would be my posture as well.

547
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:06,800
You're not going to come in and kiss

548
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,740
the ring and say, how much can we

549
00:25:09,740 --> 00:25:10,220
pay you?

550
00:25:14,140 --> 00:25:15,980
So one of the things that struck me

551
00:25:15,980 --> 00:25:22,220
in this is that notion of activity in

552
00:25:22,220 --> 00:25:25,780
the front, the surge of activity that may

553
00:25:25,780 --> 00:25:28,240
be happening, which is when...

554
00:25:29,620 --> 00:25:31,100
One of the other things that happened this

555
00:25:31,100 --> 00:25:32,480
week was the GDP numbers.

556
00:25:32,980 --> 00:25:35,100
That was the economy in a different section

557
00:25:35,100 --> 00:25:36,100
of topics here.

558
00:25:36,540 --> 00:25:38,900
But this kind of overlaps with that.

559
00:25:39,460 --> 00:25:41,640
The fact that we might be importing more

560
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:45,040
stuff, trying to get ahead of the tariffs,

561
00:25:45,500 --> 00:25:46,700
right?

562
00:25:47,140 --> 00:25:48,300
Well, if I owned a company that was

563
00:25:48,300 --> 00:25:50,160
importing products, I would be doing that.

564
00:25:50,700 --> 00:25:50,800
Right.

565
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:52,240
So the fact that we're doing some of

566
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,000
that, and then the idea that this might

567
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:56,260
impact availability of goods.

568
00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:58,040
Initially, there's a surge.

569
00:25:58,940 --> 00:26:01,200
Brian was talking to us about the idea

570
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:04,640
that he bought some stuff because he's thinking

571
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:05,560
there might be shortages.

572
00:26:05,940 --> 00:26:07,020
And he's like, well, I'm going to need

573
00:26:07,020 --> 00:26:07,760
these things anyway.

574
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:08,460
I might as well get them.

575
00:26:09,620 --> 00:26:11,580
It seems to me we might see a

576
00:26:11,580 --> 00:26:14,220
flurry of these kind of things where incidentally,

577
00:26:14,360 --> 00:26:20,120
the accelerated imports could create a circumstance where

578
00:26:20,120 --> 00:26:25,680
we have a two quarterly negative GDPs because

579
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:29,140
the import of stuff works against the GDP.

580
00:26:31,360 --> 00:26:36,080
But in any case, these seem like themes

581
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:38,260
that are going on where we might see

582
00:26:38,260 --> 00:26:41,720
the appearance of a surge of economic activity.

583
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:45,280
Because people are at consumption, trying to get

584
00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:45,760
ahead of this.

585
00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:46,960
Retail sales, all that stuff.

586
00:26:47,180 --> 00:26:51,700
And the purchase of materials and goods to

587
00:26:51,700 --> 00:26:52,740
get ahead of it.

588
00:26:53,460 --> 00:26:57,260
And then subsequently, the other side of that

589
00:26:57,260 --> 00:26:58,640
is, well, I already bought that stuff.

590
00:26:58,820 --> 00:27:00,460
So maybe I have an economic slowdown.

591
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:01,700
Reversion to the mean, right?

592
00:27:01,940 --> 00:27:02,140
Yeah.

593
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,080
So that's a concern.

594
00:27:05,180 --> 00:27:06,760
I think at this point, that could be

595
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:07,460
a possibility.

596
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:08,080
Yeah.

597
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:10,260
And I think the numbers that everyone looks

598
00:27:10,260 --> 00:27:12,900
at, especially the Fed, who's thinking about interest

599
00:27:12,900 --> 00:27:13,200
rates.

600
00:27:13,340 --> 00:27:14,180
That was in the news.

601
00:27:14,580 --> 00:27:15,720
Maybe we'll hit it, maybe we won't.

602
00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:20,740
But all this data is being, I won't

603
00:27:20,740 --> 00:27:24,100
say manipulated, but it isn't consistent because of

604
00:27:24,100 --> 00:27:26,560
the things that are happening.

605
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:30,920
That's disruptive, maybe, as a consequence of this.

606
00:27:31,360 --> 00:27:34,780
So net exports, when it came to the

607
00:27:34,780 --> 00:27:39,320
GDP, was negative, right?

608
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:40,660
Notably negative.

609
00:27:41,140 --> 00:27:43,040
When you look at the line on the

610
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:46,840
graph, that's what drove us into, I'd say,

611
00:27:46,900 --> 00:27:50,500
a negative GDP last week.

612
00:27:51,820 --> 00:27:52,840
Was it last week?

613
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:54,340
Whenever that was announced on the GDP.

614
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:55,400
Minus, yeah.

615
00:27:55,820 --> 00:27:57,060
You want to talk about the Fed?

616
00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:57,860
Let's do it now.

617
00:27:58,320 --> 00:27:58,460
Sure.

618
00:27:58,700 --> 00:28:00,160
The Fed met this week for one of

619
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:04,220
their regular meetings, and to no one's surprise,

620
00:28:04,940 --> 00:28:06,100
did nothing.

621
00:28:06,660 --> 00:28:06,880
Yeah.

622
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:11,980
And Chairman Powell had all the same question

623
00:28:11,980 --> 00:28:14,560
over and over again, which he's not going

624
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:15,000
to answer.

625
00:28:16,120 --> 00:28:17,780
You know, when, how much?

626
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:18,840
Yeah, go ahead.

627
00:28:19,060 --> 00:28:19,260
Yeah.

628
00:28:19,380 --> 00:28:20,500
When are you going to lower?

629
00:28:20,660 --> 00:28:21,920
I mean, it's assuming it's lower.

630
00:28:23,500 --> 00:28:24,240
What are you looking at?

631
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:25,380
We're looking at the data.

632
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:26,340
I mean, it's the same.

633
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:28,100
There's no surprises there.

634
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:31,240
And unlike most Fed meetings, the market did

635
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:32,660
not go down when he was speaking.

636
00:28:33,140 --> 00:28:35,240
It went down when he was going to

637
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:35,660
speak.

638
00:28:36,100 --> 00:28:38,160
And then he started speaking and ended up

639
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:39,900
to be a decent day on Wednesday.

640
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:43,900
So I kind of, it's a big, it's

641
00:28:43,900 --> 00:28:45,060
as expected in my view.

642
00:28:45,140 --> 00:28:46,720
I don't know if you saw something that...

643
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:47,240
No, I agree.

644
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:49,040
I think there was nothing, there was really

645
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:51,260
nothing unexpected at all.

646
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:56,560
But basically he said the risks of inflation

647
00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:58,780
and unemployment both rose.

648
00:28:59,080 --> 00:28:59,500
Yeah.

649
00:28:59,920 --> 00:29:01,080
That was my takeaway.

650
00:29:01,740 --> 00:29:05,960
But that being said, his perspective was there's

651
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:08,800
room to wait to see how things evolve.

652
00:29:09,620 --> 00:29:11,380
I think even in the midst of that

653
00:29:11,380 --> 00:29:15,740
meeting, there was, I forget what the president

654
00:29:15,740 --> 00:29:20,840
posted out on social media, but he pointed

655
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:22,180
to something about tariffs.

656
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:28,040
And that was anecdotal to the whole reality

657
00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:29,060
of it.

658
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:31,400
There's no point in them doing anything because

659
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:33,160
it remains to be seen what's really going

660
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:33,540
to happen.

661
00:29:33,540 --> 00:29:36,100
I think it's a general, the right decision.

662
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:38,920
And I think it's great advice for most

663
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:40,600
things when you don't know what to do,

664
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:41,780
you do nothing.

665
00:29:42,020 --> 00:29:44,860
You just kind of keep thinking, keep watching

666
00:29:44,860 --> 00:29:47,440
the data or keep analyzing your problem if

667
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:48,360
it's something personal.

668
00:29:48,780 --> 00:29:50,000
In this case, I think it's just, there's

669
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:52,400
so many variables of how it could turn

670
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:52,660
out.

671
00:29:52,780 --> 00:29:53,980
And conflicting variables.

672
00:29:54,220 --> 00:29:57,320
And so one of the tasks as we

673
00:29:57,320 --> 00:29:58,680
talk about all the time, one of the

674
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,640
primary obligations of the Fed is full employment.

675
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:05,340
And we had employment weekly data, we get

676
00:30:05,340 --> 00:30:08,720
every week, the unemployment claims and the continuing

677
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:09,240
claims.

678
00:30:09,460 --> 00:30:12,040
And the number of claims this week was

679
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:15,020
below, I think 15,000 below expectations this

680
00:30:15,020 --> 00:30:15,340
morning.

681
00:30:15,700 --> 00:30:19,240
So a good number, continuing claims, it's been

682
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:21,620
for a long time, right around 1.9

683
00:30:21,620 --> 00:30:22,880
million people.

684
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:26,340
It went slightly under that, was slightly over

685
00:30:26,340 --> 00:30:28,020
last week, slightly under this week.

686
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,620
So there's no like crack in the employment

687
00:30:30,620 --> 00:30:31,120
data.

688
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:33,820
And the last, actually the data was pretty

689
00:30:33,820 --> 00:30:36,980
good last week when they did the jobs

690
00:30:36,980 --> 00:30:40,280
numbers, 177,000 jobs.

691
00:30:40,420 --> 00:30:40,720
New jobs.

692
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:41,620
Yeah, new jobs.

693
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:42,140
Yeah.

694
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:47,980
The headline on the journal was hiring bucks

695
00:30:47,980 --> 00:30:51,480
trade turmoil, economic clouds loom.

696
00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:55,820
So they put this sort of, to the

697
00:30:55,820 --> 00:30:57,460
point right now, it's not been a problem,

698
00:30:57,760 --> 00:30:59,860
but there's still anxiety out there.

699
00:30:59,860 --> 00:31:02,020
It's a nice day, but there's clouds over

700
00:31:02,020 --> 00:31:02,340
there.

701
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:04,000
Whether they come, we don't know.

702
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:04,560
Yeah.

703
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:05,840
Exactly.

704
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:08,620
We did see, these are a couple other

705
00:31:08,620 --> 00:31:10,400
things from headlines I'll share, and you can

706
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:11,880
see if any of these you wanna talk

707
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:12,160
about.

708
00:31:12,500 --> 00:31:16,800
OPEC, oil prices, they are gonna increase their

709
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:19,780
production and oil prices did fall.

710
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:23,180
Trade deficit balloons as companies stockpile.

711
00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:24,200
We talked about that already.

712
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:29,900
Stock investors stay bullish despite recession forecast.

713
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,400
Cloud boosts Microsoft's earnings.

714
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:38,140
Cloud, the- Earnings have been, I mean,

715
00:31:38,220 --> 00:31:42,640
so earnings generally we're looking back before Liberation

716
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:42,740
Day.

717
00:31:42,740 --> 00:31:43,900
And they had strong growth.

718
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:45,180
There were a couple of these that were

719
00:31:45,180 --> 00:31:46,100
notable headlines.

720
00:31:46,500 --> 00:31:49,240
Generally, they've been okay or good in many

721
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:49,720
cases.

722
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:52,760
Yeah.

723
00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:57,100
One related item.

724
00:31:57,100 --> 00:32:03,380
As you've been saying, data, backward data, right

725
00:32:03,380 --> 00:32:05,200
now still looks good.

726
00:32:06,140 --> 00:32:09,000
But I think there's a lot of concerns

727
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:11,300
about will they materialize?

728
00:32:11,940 --> 00:32:13,200
That's this unknown.

729
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:14,300
It is.

730
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:18,280
It's tough to give up the weight that

731
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:22,600
data backwards, of course, gives us and we,

732
00:32:22,900 --> 00:32:25,600
people usually rely on it heavier, more heavily.

733
00:32:27,100 --> 00:32:29,180
But with the changes, and we don't really

734
00:32:29,180 --> 00:32:32,060
have a sustained period of data since Liberation

735
00:32:32,060 --> 00:32:33,780
Day and what that means.

736
00:32:34,380 --> 00:32:37,080
So it seems to mean, I'm trying to

737
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:38,660
say the first quarter data seems to mean

738
00:32:38,660 --> 00:32:40,300
a lot less than it might typically.

739
00:32:40,620 --> 00:32:43,900
First quarter earnings seem to mean, could mean

740
00:32:43,900 --> 00:32:46,860
a lot less because the market is a

741
00:32:46,860 --> 00:32:47,940
forward-looking indicator.

742
00:32:48,140 --> 00:32:50,280
And if it gets, if this starts to

743
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:52,040
get some cracks in that data, I think

744
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:54,440
that's when the story changes.

745
00:32:55,220 --> 00:32:56,900
And how companies respond to this?

746
00:32:56,900 --> 00:32:58,600
One thing in the news this week, I

747
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:01,500
think it's very related about how companies are

748
00:33:01,500 --> 00:33:04,240
going to respond to the situation, the tariff

749
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:04,860
situation.

750
00:33:05,300 --> 00:33:08,700
Toyota said this morning or yesterday that they

751
00:33:08,700 --> 00:33:12,540
are not raising prices on the cars that

752
00:33:12,540 --> 00:33:14,820
are imported and have subject to the tariff

753
00:33:16,260 --> 00:33:18,780
for the, they didn't give it a time

754
00:33:18,780 --> 00:33:20,440
period that I saw, but they're not doing

755
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:20,600
it.

756
00:33:20,700 --> 00:33:24,880
They are absorbing the price, which means profits

757
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:25,580
on Toyota.

758
00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:30,420
The company will be down, but so each

759
00:33:30,420 --> 00:33:31,720
company is going to do something.

760
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:34,360
Will there be a preponderance in one way

761
00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:34,680
or the other?

762
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:36,060
I think it's too early to tell.

763
00:33:36,820 --> 00:33:38,160
Well, I think that was a headline I

764
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:40,660
had earlier as well that I mentioned that

765
00:33:40,660 --> 00:33:43,120
there are certain, I think it was retailers

766
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,420
they were talking about, but in that instance,

767
00:33:45,580 --> 00:33:48,640
but in any case, for a time, you

768
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:51,620
can see this willingness to try to absorb

769
00:33:51,620 --> 00:33:53,700
some of this to say, will this get

770
00:33:53,700 --> 00:33:55,520
resolved rather than raising prices?

771
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:59,340
Yeah, and slowing their supply chain and laying

772
00:33:59,340 --> 00:34:01,580
off employees and whatever they would have to

773
00:34:01,580 --> 00:34:02,000
do to.

774
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:04,640
But whether that will be sustainable is a

775
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:05,240
different question.

776
00:34:05,340 --> 00:34:06,140
Well, probably not.

777
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:06,660
Yeah.

778
00:34:06,900 --> 00:34:08,820
But that just goes back to the uncertainty.

779
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:11,480
The word of the quarter, I guess, is

780
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:15,500
uncertainty because no one really knows how this

781
00:34:15,500 --> 00:34:16,300
is going to play out.

782
00:34:17,219 --> 00:34:18,820
One of the things that I noticed when

783
00:34:18,820 --> 00:34:22,659
it came to corporate trends, company news, like

784
00:34:22,659 --> 00:34:24,739
you said, there are a lot of good

785
00:34:24,739 --> 00:34:25,980
earnings and things like that.

786
00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:30,120
But we've seen a lot of this notion

787
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:33,380
of suspending outlook.

788
00:34:34,380 --> 00:34:34,840
Guidance.

789
00:34:35,139 --> 00:34:37,380
Guidance, withdrawing guidance.

790
00:34:37,940 --> 00:34:38,179
Yep.

791
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:43,020
I think that's indicative of something.

792
00:34:43,460 --> 00:34:46,920
And what I mean by that is, if

793
00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:48,719
I don't even know how to tell you

794
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:52,179
what to expect my profitability and so forth

795
00:34:52,179 --> 00:34:55,780
is going to look like, how am I

796
00:34:55,780 --> 00:34:57,680
going to make decisions about how I want

797
00:34:57,680 --> 00:34:59,640
to move forward as a company?

798
00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:04,440
And I think that this gives reason to

799
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:06,960
think that the economy is likely to slow.

800
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:10,740
That aside from the higher costs and all

801
00:35:10,740 --> 00:35:17,900
the pricing considerations of tariffs working their way

802
00:35:17,900 --> 00:35:21,680
into this, there's the uncertainty of, is this

803
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:22,580
going to get resolved?

804
00:35:22,580 --> 00:35:24,880
Is it going to be worse?

805
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:27,080
Is it going to have very high costs?

806
00:35:28,140 --> 00:35:30,120
What's going to happen where kind of thing?

807
00:35:32,060 --> 00:35:35,780
Companies are in a position where they're a

808
00:35:35,780 --> 00:35:38,860
little bit mystified as to whether or not

809
00:35:38,860 --> 00:35:42,040
or what exactly is going to happen.

810
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:44,480
And that leaves them in a position where,

811
00:35:44,620 --> 00:35:46,420
like you said, when you don't know, maybe

812
00:35:46,420 --> 00:35:47,180
you do nothing.

813
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:51,980
And that strikes me as a slowing effect

814
00:35:51,980 --> 00:35:52,920
on the economy.

815
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:56,180
And similarly, as a consumer, we might be

816
00:35:56,180 --> 00:35:59,020
in a similar kind of face at some

817
00:35:59,020 --> 00:35:59,400
point.

818
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:00,900
I don't know that we're there today.

819
00:36:01,460 --> 00:36:06,000
But as you say, I hear there's more

820
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:06,640
layoffs.

821
00:36:06,740 --> 00:36:09,240
We've been hearing certain layoffs getting creeping into

822
00:36:09,240 --> 00:36:11,060
the headlines as well.

823
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:14,600
Gee, maybe I'll tighten my belt.

824
00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:19,000
Maybe I'll pause before I make that purchase,

825
00:36:19,500 --> 00:36:20,340
et cetera.

826
00:36:20,580 --> 00:36:25,680
And back to data, we have seen some

827
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:30,000
initial data respecting travel and tourism.

828
00:36:30,860 --> 00:36:35,560
Airlines specifically are indicating that their bookings are

829
00:36:35,560 --> 00:36:40,260
below expectations or below normal, whatever they're using

830
00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:44,640
for whatever their booking period is.

831
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:48,300
And that's something that consumers' uncertainty, there it

832
00:36:48,300 --> 00:36:52,180
is again, leads you to do nothing, or

833
00:36:52,180 --> 00:36:56,560
should perhaps, and vacations and travel, whether it's

834
00:36:56,560 --> 00:37:00,340
corporate or leisure, are something that is very,

835
00:37:01,500 --> 00:37:03,200
it's like kind of first on the forefront.

836
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:06,540
Let's not plan that now, right?

837
00:37:06,740 --> 00:37:08,740
Yeah, I mean, didn't we see big layoffs

838
00:37:08,740 --> 00:37:12,160
from one of the casino companies because they

839
00:37:12,160 --> 00:37:16,980
were expecting tourism to decline when it comes

840
00:37:16,980 --> 00:37:18,460
to, I saw UPS.

841
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:23,140
Anecdotally, you see some announcing that some of

842
00:37:23,140 --> 00:37:23,680
these layoffs.

843
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:25,700
It doesn't mean that this is, as you

844
00:37:25,700 --> 00:37:28,520
said, it's not in the data right now,

845
00:37:28,780 --> 00:37:31,240
but you kind of get the sense of,

846
00:37:31,340 --> 00:37:32,560
hey, there's some things happening.

847
00:37:32,780 --> 00:37:35,300
There's something, and I think a lot of

848
00:37:35,300 --> 00:37:37,580
that is tied to uncertainty.

849
00:37:37,580 --> 00:37:43,860
I think from what I've heard discussed is

850
00:37:43,860 --> 00:37:46,660
that notion that a lot of companies, because

851
00:37:46,660 --> 00:37:50,040
it's been hard to get good talent, are

852
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:53,580
reluctant to let go of good, you know,

853
00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:54,340
their workforce.

854
00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:58,060
So that may be something that, you know,

855
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:00,580
in a different moment in time, a lot

856
00:38:00,580 --> 00:38:03,600
of times companies are quick to let go

857
00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:05,960
of, to try to keep their profitability and

858
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:06,260
so forth.

859
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:08,600
Today, I don't think that's as much the

860
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:08,920
case.

861
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:10,700
Yeah, I would agree with that.

862
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:16,580
Coming before this Liberation Day, you know, in

863
00:38:16,580 --> 00:38:18,660
the years prior, the number one thing that

864
00:38:18,660 --> 00:38:20,740
we heard from business owners that we talk

865
00:38:20,740 --> 00:38:23,880
about that their number, their biggest challenge was

866
00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:25,540
finding quality employees.

867
00:38:26,060 --> 00:38:26,240
Yeah.

868
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:28,340
So that's fresh on their mind and if

869
00:38:28,340 --> 00:38:30,580
they have good staff, if they have, you

870
00:38:30,580 --> 00:38:33,400
know, adequate staff to what they, if they're

871
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:35,240
in a good place now, I can see

872
00:38:35,240 --> 00:38:38,380
them, like Toyota, I can see the decision

873
00:38:38,380 --> 00:38:40,400
being made no matter what their outlook is,

874
00:38:40,700 --> 00:38:42,580
which is probably back to the reason that

875
00:38:42,580 --> 00:38:46,060
they are suspending guidance, but saying for now,

876
00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:47,200
we're just going to keep things the way

877
00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:47,560
they are.

878
00:38:47,700 --> 00:38:48,520
But that could change.

879
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:50,380
I think that's what it all boils down

880
00:38:50,380 --> 00:38:50,600
to.

881
00:38:52,260 --> 00:38:54,780
There was an interesting article in Barron's last

882
00:38:54,780 --> 00:38:59,100
week where they were consulting money pros and

883
00:38:59,100 --> 00:39:03,900
getting their views on markets, which is worth,

884
00:39:03,980 --> 00:39:07,200
you know, absolutely nothing, but still kind of,

885
00:39:07,260 --> 00:39:09,480
you know, it's quick discussion.

886
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:14,740
Describe your own outlook for the US equities

887
00:39:14,740 --> 00:39:16,000
of the next 12 months.

888
00:39:17,020 --> 00:39:21,800
32% bearish, 26% bullish, 42%

889
00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:22,120
neutral.

890
00:39:23,060 --> 00:39:23,660
Good time to buy.

891
00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:28,480
Are your clients bullish, bearish or neutral?

892
00:39:29,740 --> 00:39:31,580
56% bearish.

893
00:39:33,820 --> 00:39:35,300
7% bullish.

894
00:39:35,660 --> 00:39:38,560
As a contrary indicator, that's my flippant comment,

895
00:39:38,740 --> 00:39:41,800
which was not advice to anyone specifically, but

896
00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:45,840
my flippant comment was typically when it's bearish

897
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:48,620
sentiment, it ends up to be a good

898
00:39:48,620 --> 00:39:50,580
time to think about adding to your equity

899
00:39:50,580 --> 00:39:51,140
exposure.

900
00:39:51,620 --> 00:39:52,900
Not guaranteed, of course.

901
00:39:53,240 --> 00:39:53,820
Possibility.

902
00:39:54,220 --> 00:39:54,400
Yeah.

903
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:59,720
Is the US stock market overvalued, undervalued, or

904
00:39:59,720 --> 00:40:02,520
fairly valued at current levels?

905
00:40:03,740 --> 00:40:11,260
58% overvalued, 38% fairly valued, 4

906
00:40:11,260 --> 00:40:12,920
% undervalued.

907
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:16,640
Again, perceptions, right?

908
00:40:16,900 --> 00:40:19,260
A lot of that comes back to what

909
00:40:19,260 --> 00:40:22,980
happens with profitability and tariffs and all this

910
00:40:22,980 --> 00:40:25,320
that factors into that equation.

911
00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:31,220
Will stocks suffer a bear market, a decline

912
00:40:31,220 --> 00:40:34,880
of 20% from the highs sometime in

913
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:35,440
2025?

914
00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:37,500
Well, we did.

915
00:40:38,500 --> 00:40:40,880
I think we were technically 19% on

916
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:41,740
the S&P.

917
00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:42,680
Okay.

918
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:45,560
But you could argue we already did.

919
00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:46,960
65% say yes.

920
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:51,300
I think a better question, and maybe it's

921
00:40:51,300 --> 00:40:53,400
there, but are we going back to the

922
00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:56,740
lows of that or are we somewhere else?

923
00:40:58,750 --> 00:41:00,510
That would be a better question.

924
00:41:01,950 --> 00:41:03,130
Do you want to answer it?

925
00:41:04,230 --> 00:41:06,650
I could answer it in my humble opinion.

926
00:41:07,530 --> 00:41:10,250
I don't think we're going back to those

927
00:41:10,250 --> 00:41:13,150
lows, but I think we have a trading

928
00:41:13,150 --> 00:41:16,510
range here for a while until these issues

929
00:41:16,510 --> 00:41:17,890
are resolved.

930
00:41:18,790 --> 00:41:20,370
And that trading range, I don't think will

931
00:41:20,370 --> 00:41:23,870
go back down below 5,000 on the

932
00:41:23,870 --> 00:41:24,330
S&P.

933
00:41:24,850 --> 00:41:26,750
But there's a lot of things I don't

934
00:41:26,750 --> 00:41:26,990
know.

935
00:41:27,150 --> 00:41:31,050
If the trade negotiations, tariff negotiations fell apart

936
00:41:31,050 --> 00:41:34,590
at the same time that unemployment had a

937
00:41:34,590 --> 00:41:38,650
crack and we were getting bad signs from

938
00:41:38,650 --> 00:41:42,270
the consumer, all those things are possible.

939
00:41:43,130 --> 00:41:46,410
Those aren't like crazy predictions that would never

940
00:41:46,410 --> 00:41:46,850
happen.

941
00:41:49,090 --> 00:41:52,030
We could, but if we're somewhere in the

942
00:41:52,030 --> 00:41:55,250
middle there, if things are progressing, if employment

943
00:41:55,250 --> 00:41:57,230
holds steady and the consumer stands up, I

944
00:41:57,230 --> 00:41:59,050
think we're probably in this trading range somewhere

945
00:41:59,050 --> 00:42:03,630
between 5,300 and 5,800 for a

946
00:42:03,630 --> 00:42:05,830
while until there's a clearer indication.

947
00:42:09,840 --> 00:42:13,160
You didn't ask, but I'll chime in as

948
00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:13,500
well.

949
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:15,500
I'm going to cheat by saying, I don't

950
00:42:15,500 --> 00:42:16,120
know, of course.

951
00:42:17,460 --> 00:42:22,700
But to your comment, I think what we're

952
00:42:22,700 --> 00:42:27,080
trying to do as a design for our

953
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:30,780
clientele in the way we're positioning our discretionary

954
00:42:30,780 --> 00:42:37,580
managed portfolios is err on the side of

955
00:42:37,580 --> 00:42:37,980
caution.

956
00:42:38,980 --> 00:42:40,260
So we're a little underweight.

957
00:42:40,380 --> 00:42:43,060
We're a little defensive in our positioning, but

958
00:42:43,060 --> 00:42:45,040
we're trying to take advantage of certain industries

959
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:47,680
that we think are opportunistic that may do

960
00:42:47,680 --> 00:42:48,040
well.

961
00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:51,840
And so although we're a little underweight, we're

962
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:53,180
trying to be in a position where we

963
00:42:53,180 --> 00:42:56,840
can keep in place good returns.

964
00:42:56,840 --> 00:43:00,000
And of course, I think as some of

965
00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:05,020
this news around tariffs offers greater clarity, we'll

966
00:43:05,020 --> 00:43:08,380
be in a position to react to that,

967
00:43:08,460 --> 00:43:09,180
respond to that.

968
00:43:11,820 --> 00:43:14,420
But it goes back to that point.

969
00:43:14,720 --> 00:43:17,800
Generally, you want to, as we talked about,

970
00:43:17,880 --> 00:43:18,920
have liquidity.

971
00:43:20,220 --> 00:43:23,040
In other instances, you want to have a

972
00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:26,200
bucketed approach and you want to have an

973
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:31,200
allocation that retains your tolerance of your temperament

974
00:43:31,780 --> 00:43:34,140
so that you're staying the course over time.

975
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:40,640
Don't try to overly think through some of

976
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:41,040
this stuff.

977
00:43:41,140 --> 00:43:42,340
I've got some cue with it.

978
00:43:42,700 --> 00:43:45,660
Yeah, drastic decisions, as you've said many times,

979
00:43:45,880 --> 00:43:48,220
are usually the wrong decision.

980
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:52,800
Yeah, when you're making those decisions in the

981
00:43:52,800 --> 00:43:54,680
heat of the moment.

982
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:58,040
Last couple of things on this particular one

983
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:02,760
was probably the most interesting two here left

984
00:44:02,760 --> 00:44:04,780
of the things that we didn't touch on

985
00:44:04,780 --> 00:44:08,800
was is the stock market's tariff-related sell

986
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:10,680
-off a buying opportunity?

987
00:44:11,720 --> 00:44:14,560
60% say yes, 40% say no.

988
00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:19,100
What odds do you put on a recession

989
00:44:20,360 --> 00:44:22,060
stemming from trade policy?

990
00:44:26,220 --> 00:44:29,100
So the bulk is you'd expect this looks

991
00:44:29,100 --> 00:44:30,100
like a bell curve.

992
00:44:31,660 --> 00:44:40,300
Okay, so 40% probability of recession, 25

993
00:44:40,300 --> 00:44:41,800
% of the respondents said.

994
00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:46,000
60% of recession, 27% of the

995
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:46,840
respondents said.

996
00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:51,000
80% probability of recession, 25% of

997
00:44:51,000 --> 00:44:51,960
the respondents said.

998
00:44:52,260 --> 00:44:52,940
Sure does, yeah.

999
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:56,560
We started off the show celebrating your 18th

1000
00:44:56,560 --> 00:44:58,760
year of being on the air.

1001
00:44:59,900 --> 00:45:02,120
If you could leave people today with like

1002
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:05,020
one, we talked a lot about a lot.

1003
00:45:05,540 --> 00:45:09,240
And I think the thing that makes our

1004
00:45:09,240 --> 00:45:12,900
clients or investors or people in the public

1005
00:45:12,900 --> 00:45:14,560
nervous is that uncertainty.

1006
00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:18,120
And you have lived through and guided people

1007
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:21,840
through a number of different periods of uncertainty,

1008
00:45:22,260 --> 00:45:24,440
all with a different trigger, but all having

1009
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:26,880
that feeling like, what do I do?

1010
00:45:27,740 --> 00:45:30,020
If you could kind of leave people with

1011
00:45:30,020 --> 00:45:32,700
a thoughtful comment on.

1012
00:45:33,620 --> 00:45:35,180
Okay, yeah, good question.

1013
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:39,180
I'll just mention we didn't get to a

1014
00:45:39,180 --> 00:45:42,680
whole bunch of things with ranging from geopolitical

1015
00:45:42,680 --> 00:45:43,940
tensions that are happening.

1016
00:45:43,940 --> 00:45:44,320
Right.

1017
00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:48,020
Air traffic control issues.

1018
00:45:48,180 --> 00:45:52,260
And even the papal conclave has started.

1019
00:45:52,580 --> 00:45:56,480
All like individual podcasts by themselves.

1020
00:45:56,880 --> 00:45:57,980
Yeah, all fun stuff.

1021
00:46:00,260 --> 00:46:01,280
Well, maybe not all fun stuff.

1022
00:46:01,420 --> 00:46:01,720
You know what I mean?

1023
00:46:01,780 --> 00:46:01,940
No.

1024
00:46:05,650 --> 00:46:07,390
Your point is a great one.

1025
00:46:07,450 --> 00:46:08,370
I appreciate the question.

1026
00:46:11,630 --> 00:46:14,110
The circumstances of what happens is new.

1027
00:46:14,270 --> 00:46:15,510
It's different each time.

1028
00:46:17,370 --> 00:46:21,690
But how to respond to it is probably

1029
00:46:21,690 --> 00:46:22,250
not new.

1030
00:46:28,550 --> 00:46:31,150
It's not necessarily the same for every investor.

1031
00:46:33,210 --> 00:46:36,170
If you are a younger person with many

1032
00:46:36,170 --> 00:46:40,590
years to invest, don't use this as an

1033
00:46:40,590 --> 00:46:43,730
occasion to change anything that you're doing in

1034
00:46:43,730 --> 00:46:46,050
terms of like saying, oh, maybe it's a

1035
00:46:46,050 --> 00:46:46,610
crazy time.

1036
00:46:46,770 --> 00:46:48,290
Maybe I'll stop buying.

1037
00:46:48,290 --> 00:46:50,390
I'll stop adding to my 401k.

1038
00:46:51,230 --> 00:46:52,630
Definitely don't do that.

1039
00:46:52,690 --> 00:46:54,790
If you haven't been investing in your 401k,

1040
00:46:54,930 --> 00:46:55,690
do it now.

1041
00:46:56,810 --> 00:46:57,830
Get started.

1042
00:46:58,070 --> 00:46:58,550
Get going.

1043
00:46:58,890 --> 00:47:00,090
You've got a long horizon.

1044
00:47:00,810 --> 00:47:04,570
And we know that there will be volatility

1045
00:47:04,570 --> 00:47:05,450
along the way.

1046
00:47:05,630 --> 00:47:08,310
But ultimately, people are benefited from the creation

1047
00:47:08,310 --> 00:47:14,110
of wealth by owning stocks, owning the market,

1048
00:47:14,290 --> 00:47:15,390
owning stocks and bonds.

1049
00:47:16,810 --> 00:47:19,870
And different assets and so forth.

1050
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:23,750
We work with retirees primarily.

1051
00:47:24,810 --> 00:47:28,150
And I hear from not exclusively, but frequently.

1052
00:47:28,450 --> 00:47:30,210
Cape Cod, there's lots of retirees.

1053
00:47:31,940 --> 00:47:35,150
And I hear from people often saying, well,

1054
00:47:35,730 --> 00:47:37,330
I'm now this age.

1055
00:47:37,690 --> 00:47:39,610
How long do I really have?

1056
00:47:40,510 --> 00:47:46,850
And although that's a valid consideration, it's not

1057
00:47:46,850 --> 00:47:47,830
the only consideration.

1058
00:47:48,090 --> 00:47:51,530
Because for most people, a lot of their

1059
00:47:51,530 --> 00:47:53,270
wealth is going to outlive them.

1060
00:47:53,590 --> 00:47:54,530
Not everyone, of course.

1061
00:47:56,070 --> 00:48:00,270
So I would start by saying, have a

1062
00:48:00,270 --> 00:48:00,910
financial plan.

1063
00:48:02,770 --> 00:48:04,310
Review your liquidity.

1064
00:48:05,010 --> 00:48:09,390
Do you have sufficient resources that are stable

1065
00:48:09,390 --> 00:48:15,050
and steady, unimpacted by market fluctuations, so that

1066
00:48:15,050 --> 00:48:17,890
over the next few years, whether it's the

1067
00:48:17,890 --> 00:48:19,670
next few years or some future next few

1068
00:48:19,670 --> 00:48:22,190
years, volatility happens.

1069
00:48:22,370 --> 00:48:23,410
And we know that happens.

1070
00:48:23,570 --> 00:48:25,350
And there's times when it's nice to have

1071
00:48:25,350 --> 00:48:29,350
a reserve that you can draw from if

1072
00:48:29,350 --> 00:48:31,170
it's needed, when it's needed.

1073
00:48:31,390 --> 00:48:33,450
If you don't want to be selling things

1074
00:48:33,450 --> 00:48:34,390
at a bad time.

1075
00:48:35,670 --> 00:48:38,690
So make sure you have the liquidity you

1076
00:48:38,690 --> 00:48:39,070
need.

1077
00:48:39,770 --> 00:48:42,510
We generally guide people about that.

1078
00:48:42,510 --> 00:48:43,790
Come and see us if you need some

1079
00:48:43,790 --> 00:48:46,290
help on thinking through how much is the

1080
00:48:46,290 --> 00:48:48,390
right amount and where to keep it.

1081
00:48:48,890 --> 00:48:51,390
Because it's less about the rate of return.

1082
00:48:51,590 --> 00:48:54,330
It's more about the access and stability.

1083
00:48:55,310 --> 00:49:03,430
But in any event, but then your tolerance

1084
00:49:03,430 --> 00:49:05,270
for risk can change over time.

1085
00:49:06,230 --> 00:49:08,910
But you don't want to make drastic changes.

1086
00:49:09,270 --> 00:49:11,550
We refer to that Vanguard study all the

1087
00:49:11,550 --> 00:49:16,890
time about behavioral finance, behavioral coaching.

1088
00:49:18,240 --> 00:49:21,230
We want to have an allocation that is

1089
00:49:21,230 --> 00:49:23,650
befitting your needs and your tolerances.

1090
00:49:25,350 --> 00:49:27,550
And there are times when we might make

1091
00:49:27,550 --> 00:49:31,190
modest adjustments to that, but we want to

1092
00:49:31,190 --> 00:49:34,170
stay the course despite volatility.

1093
00:49:35,250 --> 00:49:37,850
Now, we've had the benefit in recent years

1094
00:49:37,850 --> 00:49:41,390
where when markets go down frequently within a

1095
00:49:41,390 --> 00:49:43,410
couple of years, you're back in the plus.

1096
00:49:44,490 --> 00:49:46,290
And that doesn't always happen, I understand.

1097
00:49:46,770 --> 00:49:48,690
And that's why we want to plan in

1098
00:49:48,690 --> 00:49:53,330
a way that's deliberate with the liquidity and

1099
00:49:53,330 --> 00:49:54,490
graduated risk.

1100
00:49:57,210 --> 00:50:01,590
But I think it's prudent to say, which

1101
00:50:01,590 --> 00:50:02,970
I think is where you were going with

1102
00:50:02,970 --> 00:50:05,630
this, Jeff, is stay the course.

1103
00:50:06,190 --> 00:50:07,530
Don't make rash decisions.

1104
00:50:08,530 --> 00:50:10,230
Speak to your financial advisor.

1105
00:50:10,230 --> 00:50:12,890
Get some input around, do you have the

1106
00:50:12,890 --> 00:50:14,330
right structure today?

1107
00:50:14,870 --> 00:50:18,250
If it's not something that's proactively managed, that

1108
00:50:18,250 --> 00:50:20,610
might be something to investigate, getting something that's

1109
00:50:20,610 --> 00:50:24,210
not just static and only adjusted by your

1110
00:50:24,210 --> 00:50:26,410
phone call to say, hey, should we be

1111
00:50:26,410 --> 00:50:27,190
doing something?

1112
00:50:28,190 --> 00:50:30,350
You want to be dealing with a manager

1113
00:50:30,350 --> 00:50:33,950
that's going to be forward thinking, forward looking.

1114
00:50:34,770 --> 00:50:36,530
Did you have anything you wanted to add

1115
00:50:36,530 --> 00:50:36,930
to that?

1116
00:50:37,350 --> 00:50:39,810
No, I think that was perfectly said.

1117
00:50:40,050 --> 00:50:43,070
And I hope our listeners take heed that

1118
00:50:43,070 --> 00:50:47,030
we all have emotions and we all want

1119
00:50:47,030 --> 00:50:47,910
to react to things.

1120
00:50:48,050 --> 00:50:49,450
We all think if we make a move,

1121
00:50:49,510 --> 00:50:51,730
it might be the right move at the

1122
00:50:51,730 --> 00:50:52,390
right time.

1123
00:50:53,250 --> 00:50:55,710
But history tells us and data tells us

1124
00:50:55,710 --> 00:50:58,590
and that Vanguard tells us that those decisions

1125
00:50:58,590 --> 00:51:01,830
that are emotionally based out of fear or

1126
00:51:01,830 --> 00:51:06,050
greed, either one, are usually the wrong decisions.

1127
00:51:06,050 --> 00:51:08,550
And most of the time, when you're working

1128
00:51:08,550 --> 00:51:10,710
with a trusted financial advisor who has the

1129
00:51:10,710 --> 00:51:13,850
experience, that's why you hire them.

1130
00:51:14,130 --> 00:51:15,510
So stick to your plan.

1131
00:51:16,330 --> 00:51:17,330
Ask questions, certainly.

1132
00:51:18,610 --> 00:51:20,050
Think about your risk tolerance.

1133
00:51:20,270 --> 00:51:23,650
But most of the times you're better off,

1134
00:51:23,930 --> 00:51:27,450
sir, by sticking to your plan and listening

1135
00:51:27,450 --> 00:51:28,210
to your advisor.

1136
00:51:30,110 --> 00:51:30,270
Excellent.

1137
00:51:30,690 --> 00:51:33,830
If you need help in working with someone

1138
00:51:33,830 --> 00:51:36,090
who can look at your portfolio and your

1139
00:51:36,090 --> 00:51:40,850
financial plan, help you glean insight as to

1140
00:51:40,850 --> 00:51:45,910
where the risks are, whether your structure makes

1141
00:51:45,910 --> 00:51:48,190
sense for your stage of life and your

1142
00:51:48,190 --> 00:51:51,790
cash flow demands and various things that you

1143
00:51:51,790 --> 00:51:56,050
might have concerns about, don't hesitate to reach

1144
00:51:56,050 --> 00:51:56,390
out.

1145
00:51:56,630 --> 00:51:58,390
We offer a complimentary consultation.

1146
00:51:58,970 --> 00:52:00,830
Perhaps we can be a resource to you

1147
00:52:00,830 --> 00:52:03,890
as well as the many clients we serve

1148
00:52:03,890 --> 00:52:04,250
now.

1149
00:52:04,850 --> 00:52:07,250
So in any case, it's a no obligation,

1150
00:52:07,730 --> 00:52:09,490
you know, kind of a conversation.

1151
00:52:09,890 --> 00:52:11,230
Happy to be a resource.

1152
00:52:12,030 --> 00:52:13,730
Jeff, thanks.

1153
00:52:14,330 --> 00:52:14,710
Thank you.

1154
00:52:14,930 --> 00:52:15,870
Good conversation.

1155
00:52:16,170 --> 00:52:17,390
Happy 18th anniversary.

1156
00:52:17,690 --> 00:52:18,530
Thanks, thanks.

1157
00:52:19,410 --> 00:52:21,630
And we hope our listeners are enjoying it

1158
00:52:21,630 --> 00:52:22,070
as well.

1159
00:52:22,150 --> 00:52:24,830
And we'll keep on with us as we

1160
00:52:24,830 --> 00:52:28,370
go forward, hopefully gleaning useful insights as you

1161
00:52:28,370 --> 00:52:30,610
think about your portfolio and your financial planning.

1162
00:52:31,090 --> 00:52:33,570
Until next time, everybody keeps striving for something

1163
00:52:33,570 --> 00:52:33,890
more.

1164
00:52:35,430 --> 00:52:37,430
Thank you for listening to Something More with

1165
00:52:37,430 --> 00:52:38,130
Chris Boyd.

1166
00:52:38,470 --> 00:52:40,610
Call us for help, whether it's for financial

1167
00:52:40,610 --> 00:52:44,530
planning or portfolio management, insurance concerns, or those

1168
00:52:44,530 --> 00:52:46,570
quality of life issues that make the money

1169
00:52:46,570 --> 00:52:47,670
matters matter.

1170
00:52:48,050 --> 00:52:51,330
Whatever's on your mind, visit us at somethingmorewithchrisboyd

1171
00:52:51,330 --> 00:52:54,530
.com or call us toll free at 866

1172
00:52:54,530 --> 00:53:00,050
-771-8901 or send us your questions to

1173
00:53:00,050 --> 00:53:03,990
amr-info at wealthenhancement.com.

1174
00:53:04,130 --> 00:53:06,110
You're listening to Something More with Chris Boyd,

1175
00:53:06,150 --> 00:53:08,730
Financial Talk Show, Wealth Enhancement Advisory Services and

1176
00:53:08,730 --> 00:53:10,870
Jay Christopher Boyd provide investment advice on an

1177
00:53:10,870 --> 00:53:12,430
individual basis to clients only.

1178
00:53:12,590 --> 00:53:14,570
Proper advice depends on a complete analysis of

1179
00:53:14,570 --> 00:53:15,750
all facts and circumstances.

1180
00:53:16,010 --> 00:53:17,850
The information given on this program is general

1181
00:53:17,850 --> 00:53:19,890
financial comments and cannot be relied upon as

1182
00:53:19,890 --> 00:53:21,490
pertaining to your specific situation.

1183
00:53:21,490 --> 00:53:23,650
Wealth Enhancement Group cannot guarantee that using the

1184
00:53:23,650 --> 00:53:25,650
information from this show will generate profits or

1185
00:53:25,650 --> 00:53:26,770
ensure freedom from loss.

1186
00:53:26,970 --> 00:53:29,130
Listeners should consult their own financial advisors or

1187
00:53:29,130 --> 00:53:31,230
conduct their own due diligence before making any

1188
00:53:31,230 --> 00:53:31,990
financial decisions.