Portfolio Positioning for 2026: Lessons, Risks, and Opportunities

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With a new year comes new challenges, new

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opportunities.

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What to think about as we start 2026

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for your portfolio.

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That's what we're talking about today on something

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more with Chris Boyd.

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Stay with us.

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Welcome to something more with Chris Boyd.

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Chris Boyd is a certified financial planner practitioner

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and senior vice president, financial advisor at wealth

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enhancement group.

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One of the nation's largest registered investment advisors.

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We call it something more because we'd like

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to talk not only about those important dollar

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and cents issues, but also the quality of

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life issues that make the money matters better.

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Here he is your fulfillment facilitator, your partner

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in prosperity, advising clients on Cape Cod and

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across the country.

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Here's your host, Jay Christopher Boyd.

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Welcome everybody to something more with Chris Boyd.

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Thanks for being with us for another segment.

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As we start off a new year, we

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often think about these kinds of issues.

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So we're going to talk about markets and

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portfolio planning.

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Joining me today, of course, is Jeff Perry.

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And we also have Brian Regan.

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Our, uh, all of us are with the

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AMR team at, uh, wealth enhancement.

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So glad to have you joining us.

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Well, this is going to be good.

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I was just looking at Brian here and

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looking at his name with his.

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Yeah.

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What's, uh, what's going on with this title

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here, Brian?

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Uh, I was going to put baloney sauce,

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but I don't know.

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I, I just, you know, I'm in a

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mood this week, Chris, you know, the conversations

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we've had about, um, not mincing words as

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I say, but I'm just saying I'm not

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no sugarcoating.

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Um, I'm all fired up.

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So it should be a fun show.

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And I, I think those are the best

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shows to listen to when people actually say

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what they mean, um, rather than dancing around

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the topic for one reason or another.

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So if you're not, we're, we're talking about

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the video.

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Uh, we obviously, if you're listening to us

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on a podcast, you know, we have the

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podcast.

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We also, uh, have a video that we

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put out on YouTube and on our webpage.

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You can find that easily by going to

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something more with chrisboyd.com.

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Brian has put not only his name on

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the show here, but his, uh, under title,

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he's put no sugar coating.

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So that's what we're, that's what we're referring

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to.

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So that's what we're in store for a

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no sugar coating.

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You know, let's start off Brian, as we

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think about how to be thinking about, uh,

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posture and positioning in a portfolio, uh, maybe

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we can start with just a quick look

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back to think about what lessons from 2026

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do you think are worth paying attention to?

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And maybe, um, that, that carry forward into

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our thinking about what should we be, you

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know, being attentive to in 2026, I think

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the big lessons of 2025 is just the

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narratives change constantly and it's best just to

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keep focused on the longer term.

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Um, that's the longer term for the prospects

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of a business.

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If you own individual stocks, the longer term

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and the focus of your.

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Um, financial plan.

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If you're thinking about yourself personally and how

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you should be allocated, um, when it comes

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to your savings and your spending, I think

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focusing on the longer term is much better

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than reacting to whatever news headlines, if you

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just think of just 25, 25, right.

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Um, you know, at the end of 24,

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we had a bit of a rally in

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the markets because there was optimism, optimism about

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tax cuts.

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And then, uh, you know, basically soon after

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the inauguration with market started going down because

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they were afraid of tariffs.

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And then in April we had a big

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drop because of tariffs.

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So, you know, we had, uh, the market

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go up because of, um, the government policy.

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We had the market go down because of

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government policy.

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We had the market panic because of government

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policy.

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Then we had the market rally all the

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way back because of reversal of a lot

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of that policy.

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So, um, just in the first, you know,

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six months of the year, we had a

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bit of a rollercoaster when it came to

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government policy.

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Um, and I, I think the average person

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is probably worse off if they reacted too

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aggressively in one way or another to, to

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any, any particular headline.

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Um, when you think about individual stocks or

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themes, um, Nvidia, which is currently the stock

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market darling and has been the stock market

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darling.

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Uh, really saw a lot of pedals fall

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off during the middle of the year.

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Right.

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It actually had a 40% drawdown, uh,

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trades around $185 today.

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At one point, um, you could have bought

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it at $85 a share this year in

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2025.

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Um, so if you were a big bull

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and then became a big bear, uh, it

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didn't get bullish again, you know, that, that

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was painful, right?

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Um, open AI, uh, was hailed, uh, and

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has, has an amazing product.

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So I think chat GPT, um, definitely the

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first mover advantage when it came to the

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large language models, it was hailed as, you

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know, the, the.

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Sacred cow of, um, AI technology going forward.

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And, uh, in Google was pronounced, you know,

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dead and that narrative is completely flipped.

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Now people are saying open AI is flipped

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and Google's the, the, you know, um, MVP

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of the league.

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You know, I think that battle is going

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to continue.

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I think, you know, there's a lot of

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players in the large language model space.

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I think, you know, saying Google's out or

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open AI as I was probably premature.

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Um, I do have my opinions on what

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it's going to be for the longer term.

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Um, and you know, we can talk about

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that.

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It's interesting, but it had huge effects on

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other companies too, right?

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So Oracle, uh, took a big order from

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open AI, um, to do a lot of,

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uh, uh, a lot of their data center

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work, uh, $300 billion between now and 2030.

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Um, and Oracle shot up and then was

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quickly met with a lot of skepticism when

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the market started piecing together the numbers and

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said, hold on a second.

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Open open AI has about $1.4 trillion

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in commitments between now and 2030.

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That's an awful big number.

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How are they going to get there?

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Uh, and so Oracle started to fall and

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Microsoft, which, um, you know, owns a significant

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stake in open AI, uh, you know, started

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staggering as well.

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So, you know, there was a lot of

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ups and downs and different changes in narratives.

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Um, and I think, uh, you know, if

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you, if you clung to any one of

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those, uh, you know, you, you probably really,

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really hurt, um, one way or another this

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year.

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So I think the biggest lesson is to

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have a long-term thesis that's well researched,

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thought out and sticking with that and monitoring

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it for real purposeful, uh, changes in that

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thesis.

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Yeah, that was good comments, Brian.

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I want to just drill down on one

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piece of it because it's the thing that

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seems to be on the forefront of our

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clients' minds when they come in for reviews

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and meetings is the politics of it all.

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You know, during the elections, when we have

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an upcoming election, we talk a lot to

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our clients and on the podcast about, you

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know, don't put your politics in with your

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investing, right?

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Don't, if your team's, if your political team's

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not winning, don't jump out of the market.

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And if your team is winning, that doesn't

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mean you should be all in on the

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market.

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So we talk about that a lot because

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people are thinking about in elections, but, you

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know, with this administration we have for the

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next three years, we've had one for the

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next three years, politics and the market are

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going to be on the mind of the

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investors.

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It's kind of one thing, especially if they

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have a significant leaning to the left or

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right, but Brian's right.

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If they don't go together, they don't go

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together.

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You can't react negatively or positively because you

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like or dislike something that your political party

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is promoting because it's probably not going to

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happen.

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It might be overruled by a court.

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Somebody might change your mind and it might

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actually be okay.

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So the two separate and distinct things.

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So don't mix your politics with your financial

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plan.

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I think that's the big lesson for me,

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Chris, for 2025.

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Yeah, portfolio and politics, huh?

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Not always the same outcome.

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But, you know, Brian, you talked about how

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it did move markets to some extent.

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Right.

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So how do you, you know, use that

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term, how do you square that circle or

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whatever?

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How do you make sense of that when

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you know it's not always the right thing

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to be letting your politics invade your portfolio

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planning, but that policy is impacted?

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And but does it is it is it

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the kind of thing that you should be

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thinking about as you structure your portfolio design?

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As a general rule, I agree with Jeff

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100 percent.

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I do think this administration has been a

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little bit different and it's not just the

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administration, but it's the congressional makeup and the

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makeup of the Supreme Court.

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We're supposed to have three co-equal branches

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of government.

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Doesn't necessarily seem to have been the case

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over the last year.

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Tariffs have been unilaterally enacted and it's a

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guess as to whether or not the Supreme

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Court will push back on those and to

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what degree and what's going to happen.

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And that does have a huge effect on

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the economy.

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I mean, a very, very big effect.

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We've had significant threats to the Federal Reserve

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independence where I would say manipulation of the

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yield curve should be your base case going

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forward for the next for the next few

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years.

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And Congress has no desire to push back

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on anything the president does.

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So there's doesn't seem to be any checks

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whatsoever.

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So, you know, there are significant reason to

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believe that this administration and this congressional makeup

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and the Supreme Court make the situation different

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than has been in the past.

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When we were thinking and analyzing prior to

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the election, I think the general assumption is

271
00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:04,280
that we would have at least one part

272
00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:06,460
of Congress, the House or the or the

273
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Senate to be blue.

274
00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:09,400
And that's not the case.

275
00:10:09,700 --> 00:10:10,820
They're both they're both red.

276
00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:14,580
The Supreme Court's red and the president, the

277
00:10:14,580 --> 00:10:16,700
president is a Republican as well.

278
00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:19,260
So there's an overwhelming amount of power right

279
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now that resides in the executive branch.

280
00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:27,700
And that has caused a lot of turmoil

281
00:10:27,700 --> 00:10:30,840
in the last year, despite the fact that

282
00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:33,760
the economy has continued to deliver very, very

283
00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:37,520
strong results and very and filled with a

284
00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:39,780
lot of optimism with the future of technology

285
00:10:39,780 --> 00:10:42,620
and and productivity growth.

286
00:10:43,680 --> 00:10:44,980
So, you know, that that's a that's a

287
00:10:44,980 --> 00:10:45,540
great thing.

288
00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:46,240
And if you were.

289
00:10:47,020 --> 00:10:50,960
And maybe you could add to that, which

290
00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:54,600
relates to policy issues, but you could include

291
00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:58,760
tax policy as being favorable to industry.

292
00:10:59,120 --> 00:10:59,660
Yeah.

293
00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:00,920
So another tailwind there.

294
00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:01,160
Right.

295
00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:05,280
So Jeff is right where to say that,

296
00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:07,480
you know, if you let's say if you

297
00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:09,220
were a Democrat and you sold out of

298
00:11:09,220 --> 00:11:12,020
everything because you were concerned about the Republican

299
00:11:12,020 --> 00:11:16,360
administration and a lot of Republican power, you

300
00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:19,460
missed out on a good year because there's

301
00:11:19,460 --> 00:11:21,220
a lot of a lot of other good

302
00:11:21,220 --> 00:11:22,300
things going on in the economy.

303
00:11:22,500 --> 00:11:24,540
I mean, you know, one one man does

304
00:11:24,540 --> 00:11:28,160
not decide the earnings for for all every

305
00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:30,260
company in the country, at least at least

306
00:11:30,260 --> 00:11:30,640
not yet.

307
00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:32,200
I mean, there there has been a lot

308
00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:35,800
of proposals for price controls and socialistic type

309
00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:41,260
policies, but no legislative fervor for that, at

310
00:11:41,260 --> 00:11:41,660
least yet.

311
00:11:42,300 --> 00:11:43,860
Let's focus on a couple of other things.

312
00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:46,240
And by the way, before I turn attention

313
00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:50,860
to something as it relates to this, I

314
00:11:50,860 --> 00:11:55,280
wanted to mention for our compliance team here

315
00:11:55,280 --> 00:11:58,000
at Wealth Enhancement, we've talked about a number

316
00:11:58,000 --> 00:11:59,640
of stocks and some earlier comments.

317
00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:02,100
Mention of stocks is not a recommendation or

318
00:12:02,100 --> 00:12:02,500
an offer.

319
00:12:02,980 --> 00:12:05,660
Individual investors should do their own due diligence

320
00:12:05,660 --> 00:12:08,200
to determine the appropriateness of their own for

321
00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:09,140
their own circumstances.

322
00:12:09,780 --> 00:12:12,680
If you need help, consult an advisor.

323
00:12:13,680 --> 00:12:14,880
We certainly are available.

324
00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:16,960
One of the things I will be mentioning

325
00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:19,700
throughout the show is it's the time of

326
00:12:19,700 --> 00:12:21,940
year when people are more focused on their

327
00:12:21,940 --> 00:12:25,760
portfolio and are available to help with a

328
00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:28,760
portfolio review, complementary consultation.

329
00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:30,720
We usually do that in the context of

330
00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:33,440
a framework of a financial plan as well.

331
00:12:33,860 --> 00:12:35,820
But happy to help you.

332
00:12:35,900 --> 00:12:37,300
And one of the things we've been finding

333
00:12:37,300 --> 00:12:40,200
a lot of attention around these days is

334
00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:46,200
tax strategies to help people navigate embedded capital

335
00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:49,200
gains or some of the challenges that people

336
00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:52,180
face, that there are techniques that can be

337
00:12:52,180 --> 00:12:56,240
helpful to help you manage risk and manage

338
00:12:56,240 --> 00:12:57,220
taxes as well.

339
00:12:57,380 --> 00:12:59,920
So in any case, if you need a

340
00:12:59,920 --> 00:13:03,260
complementary consultation, don't hesitate to reach out to

341
00:13:03,260 --> 00:13:03,440
us.

342
00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:07,200
You can do that by phone, 508-771

343
00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:11,880
-8900, or you can always send us an

344
00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:16,800
email AMR-info at wealthenhancement.com.

345
00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:19,980
In any event, you know, one of the

346
00:13:19,980 --> 00:13:23,400
things that policy, I think, you know, you

347
00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:24,820
guys talked about this a couple of weeks

348
00:13:24,820 --> 00:13:28,560
ago when making predictions, I think is really

349
00:13:28,560 --> 00:13:31,980
kind of relevant is the outlook when it

350
00:13:31,980 --> 00:13:35,940
comes to the Fed and interest rate expectations.

351
00:13:36,380 --> 00:13:38,920
And Brian, I think that's part of among

352
00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:42,640
the things that you are giving thought to

353
00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:47,180
as it relates to positioning and portfolio design

354
00:13:47,180 --> 00:13:52,960
and what that means for markets, you know,

355
00:13:53,380 --> 00:14:01,220
productivity and the availability of low cost, you

356
00:14:01,220 --> 00:14:03,000
know, use of money, you know, if interest

357
00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:06,560
rates are lower and likely to be going

358
00:14:06,560 --> 00:14:09,880
lower on the short end, that has certain

359
00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:10,520
consequences.

360
00:14:11,220 --> 00:14:13,880
The overall structure of the yield curve has

361
00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:14,600
some implications.

362
00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:18,040
Talk a little bit about this issue when

363
00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:23,160
it comes to your framing of portfolio design.

364
00:14:24,380 --> 00:14:26,080
Interest rates are an important part of that

365
00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:27,600
consideration, are they not?

366
00:14:29,520 --> 00:14:33,160
They're a huge input, they might be the

367
00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:33,720
biggest input.

368
00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:36,220
And, you know, one of the themes that

369
00:14:36,220 --> 00:14:37,920
I'm going to talk about in this quarter's

370
00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:40,000
webinar is about holistic asset allocation.

371
00:14:40,260 --> 00:14:41,620
And what does that mean?

372
00:14:41,740 --> 00:14:44,280
I think a big problem that a lot

373
00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:46,520
of investment shops do is siloing their thought

374
00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:47,380
process, right?

375
00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:49,000
They might think this is the right thing

376
00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:51,820
to do for equities right now.

377
00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:53,260
This might be the right thing to do

378
00:14:53,260 --> 00:14:54,620
for fixed income right now.

379
00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:57,540
But in my mind, they're kind of married

380
00:14:57,540 --> 00:14:59,960
to each other, just like my wife and

381
00:14:59,960 --> 00:15:01,140
I are married to each other, right?

382
00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:03,360
If she gets upset, I'm going to be

383
00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:03,640
upset.

384
00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:05,580
If she's very happy, I'm probably having a

385
00:15:05,580 --> 00:15:07,920
good day, too, and vice versa.

386
00:15:08,220 --> 00:15:08,320
Right.

387
00:15:08,380 --> 00:15:11,900
So they're very much involved and there are

388
00:15:11,900 --> 00:15:15,780
good ways to utilize the shape of the

389
00:15:15,780 --> 00:15:16,120
yield curve.

390
00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:23,300
So, for example, small banks, when they take

391
00:15:23,300 --> 00:15:25,200
in your deposits and they pay you a

392
00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:28,420
very low rate of return based on the

393
00:15:28,420 --> 00:15:30,040
short end of the yield curve, or they

394
00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:32,440
can borrow from other banks at a rate

395
00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:34,840
that's reflective of the Fed funds rate.

396
00:15:35,340 --> 00:15:37,060
You know, that's actually what the Fed funds

397
00:15:37,060 --> 00:15:37,700
rate is, right?

398
00:15:37,780 --> 00:15:40,320
It's the overnight interbank rate.

399
00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:47,050
So if that is lower than the rate

400
00:15:47,050 --> 00:15:49,070
that they're lending at, they get something called

401
00:15:49,070 --> 00:15:50,070
a net interest margin.

402
00:15:50,510 --> 00:15:52,990
And the bigger that spread, the more money

403
00:15:52,990 --> 00:15:53,550
they're going to make.

404
00:15:54,090 --> 00:15:56,290
It's not that it's not that simple, but

405
00:15:56,290 --> 00:15:59,170
generally speaking, that's a good rule of thumb,

406
00:15:59,210 --> 00:15:59,370
right?

407
00:15:59,450 --> 00:16:00,830
They don't want the duration to be too

408
00:16:00,830 --> 00:16:02,270
far off, which is why it's not.

409
00:16:04,130 --> 00:16:06,050
It's not a hard and fast rule, but

410
00:16:06,050 --> 00:16:07,770
that's a good example of how the shape

411
00:16:07,770 --> 00:16:10,010
of the yield curve can affect an equity

412
00:16:10,010 --> 00:16:10,570
investment.

413
00:16:11,590 --> 00:16:13,230
In this case, the regional bank is probably

414
00:16:13,230 --> 00:16:13,830
going to make more money.

415
00:16:13,930 --> 00:16:15,050
That means their equity is probably going to

416
00:16:15,050 --> 00:16:15,470
do well.

417
00:16:16,790 --> 00:16:18,810
You know, another way, if you think about

418
00:16:18,810 --> 00:16:23,990
from 2009 to 2019, what type of assets

419
00:16:23,990 --> 00:16:25,170
really outperformed?

420
00:16:25,430 --> 00:16:30,650
In that case, we had extreme intervention by

421
00:16:30,650 --> 00:16:33,450
the Federal Reserve with the yield curve.

422
00:16:33,770 --> 00:16:35,430
And I actually think it was the appropriate

423
00:16:35,430 --> 00:16:37,130
thing to do at that time because we

424
00:16:37,130 --> 00:16:38,370
had very, very low inflation.

425
00:16:39,410 --> 00:16:42,930
But we had a zero Fed funds rate

426
00:16:42,930 --> 00:16:44,590
and a 10 year treasury that was below

427
00:16:44,590 --> 00:16:45,110
2 percent.

428
00:16:45,390 --> 00:16:46,230
And what did you see?

429
00:16:46,310 --> 00:16:50,710
You saw growth stocks really chug along north

430
00:16:50,710 --> 00:16:54,890
because people were willing to wait for their

431
00:16:54,890 --> 00:16:57,170
longer term returns rather than getting their returns

432
00:16:57,170 --> 00:17:00,470
today because of the difference in interest rates.

433
00:17:01,410 --> 00:17:02,710
So it's very important.

434
00:17:02,990 --> 00:17:04,829
And we I think it's the first thing

435
00:17:04,829 --> 00:17:08,210
I look at when I think about asset

436
00:17:08,210 --> 00:17:08,630
allocation.

437
00:17:08,630 --> 00:17:11,130
And it's one of the biggest inputs, along

438
00:17:11,130 --> 00:17:13,050
with earnings, when I think about valuation.

439
00:17:15,490 --> 00:17:18,109
So, yeah, I think it's super important.

440
00:17:18,109 --> 00:17:20,609
And we're in a situation right now where

441
00:17:20,609 --> 00:17:25,569
the Federal Reserve independence is very much under

442
00:17:25,569 --> 00:17:27,710
question and likely going to be close to

443
00:17:27,710 --> 00:17:28,770
non-existent in May.

444
00:17:30,350 --> 00:17:31,690
So what do I expect?

445
00:17:31,810 --> 00:17:34,270
I expect an extreme shape to the yield

446
00:17:34,270 --> 00:17:34,410
curve.

447
00:17:34,510 --> 00:17:37,050
I expect the Fed funds to go much

448
00:17:37,050 --> 00:17:40,010
lower, the one, two and three year part

449
00:17:40,010 --> 00:17:42,650
to be much lower than it is today.

450
00:17:42,710 --> 00:17:44,010
Today is around three and a half percent.

451
00:17:44,010 --> 00:17:46,750
And I expect the 10 year to stay

452
00:17:46,750 --> 00:17:48,130
where it is or float a little higher.

453
00:17:49,230 --> 00:17:51,790
So without any yield curve intervention, which is

454
00:17:51,790 --> 00:17:55,570
always in the cards, buying mortgage bonds of

455
00:17:55,570 --> 00:17:57,470
200 billion dollars from Fannie and Freddie has

456
00:17:57,470 --> 00:18:02,330
already been at least suggested from the president.

457
00:18:02,850 --> 00:18:05,770
So yield curve intervention is definitely and rate

458
00:18:05,770 --> 00:18:08,470
intervention is definitely not off the table when

459
00:18:08,470 --> 00:18:10,710
it comes to what we're seeing from policy.

460
00:18:11,710 --> 00:18:12,850
So what does that mean?

461
00:18:12,850 --> 00:18:16,250
I would expect it to benefit the types

462
00:18:16,250 --> 00:18:19,970
of equities that will do well in a

463
00:18:19,970 --> 00:18:21,550
in a steep yield curve environment.

464
00:18:23,570 --> 00:18:26,750
And so do you want to elaborate on

465
00:18:26,750 --> 00:18:28,630
that, who those are?

466
00:18:29,910 --> 00:18:31,630
Yeah, I think it's very similar to the

467
00:18:31,630 --> 00:18:33,410
2009-2019 playbook.

468
00:18:33,750 --> 00:18:36,070
The difference here is that inflation is not

469
00:18:36,070 --> 00:18:36,850
below 2 percent.

470
00:18:37,130 --> 00:18:39,030
So this is something that we're going to

471
00:18:39,030 --> 00:18:40,290
have to monitor very closely.

472
00:18:40,290 --> 00:18:44,330
If inflation expectations start to grow because we

473
00:18:44,330 --> 00:18:46,010
have negative real rates on the front end

474
00:18:46,010 --> 00:18:49,130
of the curve, then your growth stocks might

475
00:18:49,130 --> 00:18:49,690
not do as well.

476
00:18:49,930 --> 00:18:53,150
So diversification and asset allocation are very important.

477
00:18:53,770 --> 00:18:54,590
I do think this is going to be

478
00:18:54,590 --> 00:18:55,350
negative for the dollar.

479
00:18:56,250 --> 00:18:59,090
So I think this is likely continually positive

480
00:18:59,090 --> 00:19:00,130
for emerging markets.

481
00:19:00,310 --> 00:19:03,250
I think it's continually positive for gold with

482
00:19:03,250 --> 00:19:06,830
negative real real rates or my expectation of

483
00:19:06,830 --> 00:19:07,570
negative real rates.

484
00:19:08,370 --> 00:19:10,450
So, you know, our portfolios are going to

485
00:19:10,450 --> 00:19:12,370
be tilted towards, you know, I mentioned regional

486
00:19:12,370 --> 00:19:18,490
banks, I mentioned growth stocks, I mentioned gold.

487
00:19:18,850 --> 00:19:20,110
Those things are all going to be pieces

488
00:19:20,110 --> 00:19:20,710
of the portfolio.

489
00:19:21,830 --> 00:19:24,810
So, Brian, in your comments about 2025, you

490
00:19:24,810 --> 00:19:27,990
talked about AI and the different companies involved.

491
00:19:28,870 --> 00:19:33,010
So we're in 2026, the Nasdaq and some

492
00:19:33,010 --> 00:19:35,470
of those Mag 7 stocks are not off

493
00:19:35,470 --> 00:19:37,170
to a roaring start this year.

494
00:19:37,490 --> 00:19:39,010
They're kind of hanging out.

495
00:19:39,710 --> 00:19:43,810
Do you think the AI projections or thoughts

496
00:19:43,810 --> 00:19:47,410
of unlimited spending, you know, basically unlimited spending

497
00:19:47,410 --> 00:19:48,970
and these stocks just going to the moon

498
00:19:48,970 --> 00:19:52,490
is in the market of these companies like

499
00:19:52,490 --> 00:19:55,230
overpriced because the spending might not happen?

500
00:19:55,590 --> 00:19:57,190
Or do we have a long way to

501
00:19:57,190 --> 00:19:57,350
go?

502
00:19:57,410 --> 00:19:58,710
Are we really early in the cycle?

503
00:19:58,830 --> 00:20:01,450
And these companies who are some way connected

504
00:20:01,450 --> 00:20:04,850
to the AI boom, the AI future, are

505
00:20:04,850 --> 00:20:06,290
still worth looking at.

506
00:20:07,730 --> 00:20:09,130
I, you know, I don't look at the

507
00:20:09,130 --> 00:20:10,190
Mag 7 as a basket.

508
00:20:10,990 --> 00:20:12,750
It's just, you know, I know that people

509
00:20:12,750 --> 00:20:13,450
do on CNBC.

510
00:20:13,590 --> 00:20:14,910
I was just using that as a reference

511
00:20:14,910 --> 00:20:16,010
where they've kind of stalled.

512
00:20:16,850 --> 00:20:18,750
I mean, the sector in general, are we

513
00:20:18,750 --> 00:20:20,370
overblowing the sector?

514
00:20:20,570 --> 00:20:22,750
And, you know, is it time to pause?

515
00:20:23,290 --> 00:20:24,630
It jumped out at me because I don't

516
00:20:24,630 --> 00:20:26,850
know what every company has done up to

517
00:20:26,850 --> 00:20:27,830
date in the Mag 7.

518
00:20:28,050 --> 00:20:29,750
I know Google's done very well, and that's

519
00:20:29,750 --> 00:20:31,430
probably because I own a lot of Google.

520
00:20:32,090 --> 00:20:35,590
So I'm pretty, I'm pretty tuned in there.

521
00:20:35,690 --> 00:20:37,190
And a lot of our clients do in

522
00:20:37,190 --> 00:20:38,970
discretionary accounts as well.

523
00:20:39,590 --> 00:20:41,330
But to answer your question, I think a

524
00:20:41,330 --> 00:20:42,770
lot of the same, just because the calendar

525
00:20:42,770 --> 00:20:44,670
turned, I don't think the theme has changed.

526
00:20:45,930 --> 00:20:48,070
And I got some good reasons for that.

527
00:20:48,150 --> 00:20:51,590
So NVIDIA, the biggest hardware provider when it

528
00:20:51,590 --> 00:20:54,470
comes to the AI story, is projecting a

529
00:20:54,470 --> 00:20:57,410
half a trillion dollars in sales in 2026.

530
00:20:58,510 --> 00:21:00,650
They gave a full year guidance the last

531
00:21:00,650 --> 00:21:04,930
quarter, which is, you know, unheard of, really.

532
00:21:05,050 --> 00:21:06,510
I mean, sometimes you get a quarter, sometimes

533
00:21:06,510 --> 00:21:07,230
you get nothing.

534
00:21:08,730 --> 00:21:11,850
A full year, you know, in an earnings,

535
00:21:12,070 --> 00:21:14,970
a quarterly earnings call is pretty significant.

536
00:21:15,190 --> 00:21:16,690
And that means that they're pretty confident.

537
00:21:17,690 --> 00:21:19,070
And what does that mean?

538
00:21:19,210 --> 00:21:22,310
I think that, you know, they're expecting the

539
00:21:22,310 --> 00:21:24,130
hyperscalers to continue to spend as they've been

540
00:21:24,130 --> 00:21:24,410
spending.

541
00:21:24,630 --> 00:21:28,110
And they've been doing nothing but upping their

542
00:21:28,110 --> 00:21:29,410
CapEx forecast.

543
00:21:31,070 --> 00:21:33,510
You know, there's been, because of the giant

544
00:21:33,510 --> 00:21:34,950
numbers that are being thrown out, there's been

545
00:21:34,950 --> 00:21:37,890
some speculation about, you know, an AI bubble.

546
00:21:38,510 --> 00:21:40,590
And I think that's very appropriate to watch.

547
00:21:40,930 --> 00:21:42,470
It's very important to see how these companies

548
00:21:42,470 --> 00:21:44,130
are financing these buys.

549
00:21:45,050 --> 00:21:47,190
Lately, they've been financing it through cash flow.

550
00:21:48,110 --> 00:21:51,230
Some companies like Oracle and Facebook, to some

551
00:21:51,230 --> 00:21:55,570
degree, have been financing it through other means,

552
00:21:55,890 --> 00:22:00,690
Facebook through private credit, Oracle through public debt,

553
00:22:01,310 --> 00:22:05,290
and Oracle starting to look pretty indebted, which

554
00:22:05,290 --> 00:22:07,350
has weighed on their stock price significantly.

555
00:22:07,770 --> 00:22:10,670
So, you know, another thing is data centers,

556
00:22:11,050 --> 00:22:13,550
you know, just because you spend 50 billion

557
00:22:13,550 --> 00:22:15,350
dollars doesn't mean you get a data center

558
00:22:15,350 --> 00:22:15,790
right away.

559
00:22:15,790 --> 00:22:17,510
They take two to three years to build

560
00:22:17,510 --> 00:22:19,450
and sometimes longer for some of these bigger

561
00:22:19,450 --> 00:22:19,750
ones.

562
00:22:20,410 --> 00:22:22,310
And that even seems optimistic to me.

563
00:22:22,370 --> 00:22:22,510
Right.

564
00:22:23,890 --> 00:22:25,090
I don't know if anybody here has ever

565
00:22:25,090 --> 00:22:26,310
built a house, but I have some close

566
00:22:26,310 --> 00:22:26,950
friends that do.

567
00:22:27,270 --> 00:22:30,250
And just building a personal residence has taken

568
00:22:30,250 --> 00:22:32,390
over 12 months in both their cases.

569
00:22:32,470 --> 00:22:35,630
So two to three years sounds even optimistic

570
00:22:35,630 --> 00:22:36,010
to me.

571
00:22:36,070 --> 00:22:38,830
So most of the data centers that are

572
00:22:38,830 --> 00:22:41,150
under construction now broke ground in 2024 and

573
00:22:41,150 --> 00:22:45,010
2025, which means that compute won't come online

574
00:22:45,010 --> 00:22:48,950
until late 26, early 27 at best.

575
00:22:49,830 --> 00:22:52,050
So we won't know if we have a

576
00:22:52,050 --> 00:22:57,290
compute overhang for well more than 12 months.

577
00:22:59,370 --> 00:23:00,810
You know, there's going to be speculation, of

578
00:23:00,810 --> 00:23:03,530
course, and I think that's appropriate, but I

579
00:23:03,530 --> 00:23:05,190
don't think we'll know for sure until the

580
00:23:05,190 --> 00:23:06,090
boxes are lit up.

581
00:23:06,690 --> 00:23:10,610
And from every CEO that I listen to

582
00:23:10,610 --> 00:23:12,830
and from the CapEx projections, it doesn't seem

583
00:23:12,830 --> 00:23:14,330
like anybody thinks they have enough compute.

584
00:23:14,950 --> 00:23:17,310
But the idea of having too much seems.

585
00:23:19,310 --> 00:23:21,070
Almost crazy to them, like.

586
00:23:23,250 --> 00:23:26,550
Related to those comments, are you still optimistic

587
00:23:26,550 --> 00:23:28,950
about some of the big construction companies who

588
00:23:28,950 --> 00:23:31,190
are building these and utilities who will provide

589
00:23:31,190 --> 00:23:37,390
the electricity and, you know, a lot of

590
00:23:37,390 --> 00:23:39,730
people have talked about utilities, for example, as

591
00:23:39,730 --> 00:23:41,770
a big bottleneck, right?

592
00:23:41,830 --> 00:23:43,390
Because we need a lot of power to

593
00:23:43,390 --> 00:23:46,090
power these things, you know, an overwhelming amount,

594
00:23:46,190 --> 00:23:48,530
really, and from all types from from.

595
00:23:48,910 --> 00:23:51,150
But natural gas is probably going to drive

596
00:23:51,150 --> 00:23:51,330
it.

597
00:23:51,970 --> 00:23:54,410
There's been, you know, Aqua, for example, is

598
00:23:54,410 --> 00:23:57,750
a stock that's gone just vertical and they

599
00:23:57,750 --> 00:23:58,510
have no revenue.

600
00:23:58,990 --> 00:23:59,890
Why is it gone vertical?

601
00:23:59,890 --> 00:24:00,450
They.

602
00:24:01,770 --> 00:24:05,450
Believe they can build basically private nuclear reactors

603
00:24:05,450 --> 00:24:07,290
for a lot of these data centers, right,

604
00:24:07,290 --> 00:24:08,310
and they have a prototype.

605
00:24:08,790 --> 00:24:11,890
Constellation Energy in Canada is actually building something

606
00:24:11,890 --> 00:24:12,290
similar.

607
00:24:12,410 --> 00:24:14,090
So, you know, there's reason to believe that

608
00:24:14,090 --> 00:24:15,090
it's possible.

609
00:24:15,830 --> 00:24:18,650
I'd also we should note that you're getting

610
00:24:18,650 --> 00:24:20,970
a lot more compute for the power with

611
00:24:20,970 --> 00:24:22,870
each iteration of new chip.

612
00:24:22,870 --> 00:24:23,410
So.

613
00:24:26,390 --> 00:24:27,810
NVIDIA just came out with a new chip

614
00:24:27,810 --> 00:24:30,190
called Rubin, and apparently it's four times more

615
00:24:30,190 --> 00:24:33,150
efficient than Blackwell, the previous iteration, and they're

616
00:24:33,150 --> 00:24:34,730
coming out with a new iteration every year.

617
00:24:34,990 --> 00:24:37,450
So if they keep improving for for X,

618
00:24:37,690 --> 00:24:39,370
we're going to need a lot less power

619
00:24:39,370 --> 00:24:40,690
than what people are predicting now.

620
00:24:41,070 --> 00:24:42,390
And I think that is something that's going

621
00:24:42,390 --> 00:24:43,730
to be part of the.

622
00:24:45,130 --> 00:24:48,070
Part of the algorithm of making this work,

623
00:24:48,250 --> 00:24:50,210
just more efficiency when it comes to chips

624
00:24:50,210 --> 00:24:52,450
and power, and they've been doing that through

625
00:24:52,450 --> 00:24:54,870
software and doing that to, you know, more

626
00:24:54,870 --> 00:24:56,010
efficient chip technology.

627
00:24:57,490 --> 00:25:00,710
There's there's it's it's pretty amazing how quickly

628
00:25:00,710 --> 00:25:03,450
they're they're building and fixing this problem, in

629
00:25:03,450 --> 00:25:03,970
my opinion.

630
00:25:05,570 --> 00:25:09,470
So, Brian, you know, your comments broadly sound

631
00:25:09,470 --> 00:25:14,270
pretty positive and optimistic for the markets as

632
00:25:14,270 --> 00:25:15,110
we look ahead.

633
00:25:16,810 --> 00:25:21,170
It strikes me as, you know, interesting to

634
00:25:21,170 --> 00:25:23,250
think we had a down year in 2022,

635
00:25:23,490 --> 00:25:25,250
but that was several years ago now we're

636
00:25:25,250 --> 00:25:30,190
looking at 23 double digit returns, 24 double

637
00:25:30,190 --> 00:25:33,570
digit returns, 25 equities, double digit returns in

638
00:25:33,570 --> 00:25:34,250
all of these years.

639
00:25:35,990 --> 00:25:38,610
And now, you know, a generally a positive

640
00:25:38,610 --> 00:25:42,830
perspective as we look at 2026 and, you

641
00:25:42,830 --> 00:25:45,270
know, we've heard people talk about the 1990s

642
00:25:45,270 --> 00:25:46,550
as a comparison.

643
00:25:46,810 --> 00:25:49,450
You hear that because of the impact of

644
00:25:49,450 --> 00:25:53,310
technology, new technology, AI seems to be today's

645
00:25:53,310 --> 00:25:54,110
new technology.

646
00:25:56,510 --> 00:25:59,610
So we did have a 20 percent nearly

647
00:25:59,610 --> 00:26:05,330
downturn last year, but we still had big

648
00:26:05,330 --> 00:26:06,770
numbers for the year.

649
00:26:07,350 --> 00:26:09,130
And I guess where I'm going with this

650
00:26:09,130 --> 00:26:11,710
is we don't know when, but we do

651
00:26:11,710 --> 00:26:14,130
know inevitably that volatility occurs.

652
00:26:15,050 --> 00:26:18,290
And as investors set their expectations for a

653
00:26:18,290 --> 00:26:21,590
new year, I hear you to be saying,

654
00:26:22,050 --> 00:26:24,250
hey, we think generally there's some good things

655
00:26:24,250 --> 00:26:27,610
happening and there's still opportunity that abounds for

656
00:26:27,610 --> 00:26:29,770
profitability from companies.

657
00:26:31,050 --> 00:26:34,310
Talk a little bit about risk mitigation, risk

658
00:26:34,310 --> 00:26:34,790
management.

659
00:26:35,490 --> 00:26:38,410
How do you how are you thinking about

660
00:26:38,410 --> 00:26:38,810
this?

661
00:26:39,390 --> 00:26:41,370
You mentioned, well, we have to be mindful,

662
00:26:41,610 --> 00:26:44,350
be watchful for issues like a bubble or

663
00:26:44,350 --> 00:26:45,270
something like that.

664
00:26:45,810 --> 00:26:49,110
But what do you what do you how

665
00:26:49,110 --> 00:26:51,170
do you guide our listeners who may be

666
00:26:51,170 --> 00:26:53,850
thinking about, well, what if the other shoe

667
00:26:53,850 --> 00:26:54,390
drops?

668
00:26:54,710 --> 00:26:56,290
How do I position for that?

669
00:26:57,250 --> 00:26:59,230
The first line of defense is you guys,

670
00:26:59,490 --> 00:27:03,110
right, the financial plan, having personal conversations with

671
00:27:03,110 --> 00:27:04,750
people and making sure that they're not taking

672
00:27:04,750 --> 00:27:06,650
risks that they can't handle.

673
00:27:06,870 --> 00:27:10,170
And that personal conversation and that analysis of

674
00:27:10,170 --> 00:27:11,690
how much money they have, how much money

675
00:27:11,690 --> 00:27:14,510
they need builds a strategic allocation.

676
00:27:15,250 --> 00:27:17,450
And we don't differ too far from that.

677
00:27:17,690 --> 00:27:17,810
Right.

678
00:27:18,190 --> 00:27:20,430
If you are a conservative investor for us,

679
00:27:20,450 --> 00:27:22,330
that means you're going to have around 50

680
00:27:22,330 --> 00:27:23,350
percent in stock.

681
00:27:23,450 --> 00:27:24,990
If you're a very conservative investor, you can

682
00:27:24,990 --> 00:27:26,330
have around 30 percent in stock.

683
00:27:27,270 --> 00:27:28,990
You know, if you're aggressive investor, it's going

684
00:27:28,990 --> 00:27:30,110
to be eighty five to one hundred.

685
00:27:30,230 --> 00:27:32,350
It's going to be, you know, but that

686
00:27:32,350 --> 00:27:34,570
all comes from having these personal conversations and

687
00:27:34,570 --> 00:27:36,870
doing a financial plan and finding out how

688
00:27:36,870 --> 00:27:38,510
much volatility you can withstand.

689
00:27:39,110 --> 00:27:43,150
So the allocation decision is primary.

690
00:27:43,610 --> 00:27:45,530
You can add to that, you know, having

691
00:27:45,530 --> 00:27:48,810
liquidity reserves, you know, being part of that

692
00:27:52,190 --> 00:27:52,810
readiness.

693
00:27:52,810 --> 00:27:55,830
What else for things you might think about

694
00:27:55,830 --> 00:27:57,770
as you're structuring your portfolio?

695
00:27:57,910 --> 00:28:00,990
The the fixed income exposure is an important

696
00:28:00,990 --> 00:28:03,330
decision in that you talked a little bit

697
00:28:03,330 --> 00:28:04,310
about that already.

698
00:28:04,670 --> 00:28:06,230
And I don't know if there's anything else

699
00:28:06,230 --> 00:28:07,030
you want to talk about.

700
00:28:08,550 --> 00:28:11,270
Alternatives other than the traditional stock and bond.

701
00:28:11,810 --> 00:28:15,350
You did mention gold in the portfolio as

702
00:28:15,350 --> 00:28:18,290
one of those gold can be volatile, but

703
00:28:18,290 --> 00:28:21,990
is an alternative, doesn't move necessarily in a

704
00:28:21,990 --> 00:28:25,250
correlated manner to equities generally.

705
00:28:26,870 --> 00:28:28,350
So that's a good point.

706
00:28:29,070 --> 00:28:31,390
Jeff, what else, Brian?

707
00:28:31,990 --> 00:28:34,350
So as a general rule, and I just

708
00:28:34,350 --> 00:28:36,210
want to put an exclamation point on the

709
00:28:36,210 --> 00:28:38,910
previous point that I made, whether strategic allocation

710
00:28:38,910 --> 00:28:41,150
and controlling that volatility is important.

711
00:28:41,730 --> 00:28:44,090
If you are in a 50-50 active

712
00:28:44,090 --> 00:28:48,110
allocation portfolio with us, you know, the downturn

713
00:28:48,110 --> 00:28:51,390
that you experienced during the tariff tantrum in

714
00:28:51,390 --> 00:28:53,870
April was around 8 percent, a little less

715
00:28:53,870 --> 00:28:54,430
than 8 percent.

716
00:28:55,330 --> 00:28:57,270
And if you were in our 100 percent

717
00:28:57,270 --> 00:29:00,310
discretionary individual stock portfolio, you know, it was

718
00:29:00,310 --> 00:29:01,290
down 17 percent.

719
00:29:01,390 --> 00:29:03,310
So that's a big gap, right?

720
00:29:03,370 --> 00:29:04,750
If you have a million dollars, that's the

721
00:29:04,750 --> 00:29:06,770
difference between that's the difference of one hundred

722
00:29:06,770 --> 00:29:07,490
thousand dollars.

723
00:29:07,710 --> 00:29:10,010
And, you know, that might scare you out

724
00:29:10,010 --> 00:29:10,590
of the portfolio.

725
00:29:10,590 --> 00:29:11,930
If that scares you out of the portfolio,

726
00:29:12,010 --> 00:29:14,170
then you didn't realize the recovery.

727
00:29:14,390 --> 00:29:18,430
So finding that right balance is important and

728
00:29:18,430 --> 00:29:21,870
controlling for that volatility is also very important.

729
00:29:23,370 --> 00:29:23,470
Now.

730
00:29:25,370 --> 00:29:29,850
When the key to building a portfolio that

731
00:29:29,850 --> 00:29:32,970
has positive returns and minimal volatility is by

732
00:29:32,970 --> 00:29:34,890
grouping a bunch of non-correlated assets.

733
00:29:35,190 --> 00:29:38,690
So if I have two assets, they both

734
00:29:38,690 --> 00:29:42,910
have positive positive returns, but they move on

735
00:29:42,910 --> 00:29:45,550
a day to day basis in different directions

736
00:29:45,550 --> 00:29:48,150
in each other, then I've fundamentally lowered the

737
00:29:48,150 --> 00:29:49,630
volatility that you're going to experience.

738
00:29:50,130 --> 00:29:54,770
And I've also delivered a positive return over

739
00:29:54,770 --> 00:29:56,450
the over the term.

740
00:29:56,890 --> 00:29:59,950
So that's what the that's the science between

741
00:29:59,950 --> 00:30:01,730
owning both stocks and bonds.

742
00:30:01,830 --> 00:30:02,070
Right.

743
00:30:02,490 --> 00:30:07,610
Bonds are historically longer duration bonds historically have

744
00:30:07,610 --> 00:30:09,550
a negative correlation with equity.

745
00:30:09,850 --> 00:30:11,670
That doesn't mean it's always that experience.

746
00:30:11,670 --> 00:30:11,970
Right.

747
00:30:12,090 --> 00:30:15,610
And particularly in high inflationary environments, that's not

748
00:30:15,610 --> 00:30:19,550
the experience, especially in any single period which

749
00:30:19,550 --> 00:30:21,910
we experienced in twenty twenty two in twenty

750
00:30:21,910 --> 00:30:25,590
twenty two bonds fell almost 17 percent and

751
00:30:25,590 --> 00:30:28,430
equities were down north of 20 percent.

752
00:30:28,630 --> 00:30:31,250
So, you know, it's not always the case,

753
00:30:31,250 --> 00:30:32,470
but it's a good starting point.

754
00:30:32,930 --> 00:30:34,770
And since that's a good starting point, that

755
00:30:34,770 --> 00:30:35,830
should be the foundation.

756
00:30:36,070 --> 00:30:36,270
Right.

757
00:30:36,310 --> 00:30:38,150
How much equity should you have and how

758
00:30:38,150 --> 00:30:39,710
much in fixed income should you have?

759
00:30:40,130 --> 00:30:43,550
There are there are alternatives that might be

760
00:30:43,550 --> 00:30:45,670
correlated with one of these assets or the

761
00:30:45,670 --> 00:30:45,870
other.

762
00:30:46,990 --> 00:30:50,510
But maybe the correlation isn't as isn't as

763
00:30:50,510 --> 00:30:51,690
high as a one for one.

764
00:30:53,150 --> 00:30:56,350
Maybe the the the strength of the moves,

765
00:30:56,430 --> 00:30:57,570
you know, there might be correlated one for

766
00:30:57,570 --> 00:30:59,190
one, but the strength of the move isn't

767
00:30:59,190 --> 00:30:59,550
as strong.

768
00:30:59,970 --> 00:31:01,350
So you might be able to get some

769
00:31:01,350 --> 00:31:03,890
upside without experiencing as much as the downside.

770
00:31:04,730 --> 00:31:06,070
You know, at the same time, your upside

771
00:31:06,070 --> 00:31:07,210
is probably capped in that scenario.

772
00:31:07,930 --> 00:31:10,770
You might get something that, you know, kind

773
00:31:10,770 --> 00:31:13,730
of has an unpredictable move and unpredictable correlation

774
00:31:13,730 --> 00:31:16,430
with equities, which is kind of what gold

775
00:31:16,430 --> 00:31:16,690
has.

776
00:31:16,810 --> 00:31:16,910
Right.

777
00:31:17,010 --> 00:31:19,250
It has a it has a historically unpredictable

778
00:31:19,250 --> 00:31:20,010
correlation.

779
00:31:20,330 --> 00:31:23,050
Sometimes it's highly correlated, sometimes it's negatively correlated.

780
00:31:23,850 --> 00:31:26,790
And that unpredictability could be a good thing

781
00:31:26,790 --> 00:31:29,590
as long as the return going forward is

782
00:31:29,590 --> 00:31:30,170
positive.

783
00:31:30,470 --> 00:31:32,890
So, you know, part of what we call

784
00:31:32,890 --> 00:31:36,170
the active allocation is evaluating the situation we're

785
00:31:36,170 --> 00:31:40,190
in at the time and rejiggering the assets

786
00:31:40,190 --> 00:31:43,890
within that equity and fixed income decision to

787
00:31:43,890 --> 00:31:47,810
limit the volatility as much as possible by

788
00:31:47,810 --> 00:31:52,010
being in positive, relatively uncorrelated assets for the

789
00:31:52,010 --> 00:31:54,770
best we can in that in that particular

790
00:31:54,770 --> 00:31:55,570
scenario.

791
00:31:56,330 --> 00:31:58,490
One of the big things that we did

792
00:31:58,490 --> 00:32:01,950
that you guys know and during the tariff

793
00:32:01,950 --> 00:32:05,350
tantrum is we bought the VIX, which is

794
00:32:05,350 --> 00:32:06,830
something I had never done before.

795
00:32:07,210 --> 00:32:09,530
But this is the this was the ultimate

796
00:32:09,530 --> 00:32:11,390
expression of doing something that.

797
00:32:13,790 --> 00:32:15,730
It moves the opposite of the market, right,

798
00:32:15,830 --> 00:32:17,110
that the VIX is a fear gauge.

799
00:32:17,350 --> 00:32:18,750
It goes up when people get scared, when

800
00:32:18,750 --> 00:32:20,430
people get scared, they typically sell off their

801
00:32:20,430 --> 00:32:20,830
equities.

802
00:32:21,450 --> 00:32:23,090
They really sell off most of their assets,

803
00:32:23,230 --> 00:32:24,550
but the VIX goes up.

804
00:32:24,670 --> 00:32:25,590
So the VIX was positive.

805
00:32:25,670 --> 00:32:27,530
We made money on it while the market

806
00:32:27,530 --> 00:32:28,190
was falling down.

807
00:32:28,650 --> 00:32:30,090
And part of the part of the way

808
00:32:30,090 --> 00:32:31,530
that we got comfortable with that was.

809
00:32:32,630 --> 00:32:34,050
We thought, well, we could buy a small

810
00:32:34,050 --> 00:32:35,610
amount of the VIX, limit some of the

811
00:32:35,610 --> 00:32:36,090
downside.

812
00:32:36,090 --> 00:32:38,110
If the VIX does bad, that's actually good

813
00:32:38,110 --> 00:32:39,610
for us because that means everything else is

814
00:32:39,610 --> 00:32:40,030
going well.

815
00:32:40,630 --> 00:32:42,530
If the VIX does well, we limit some

816
00:32:42,530 --> 00:32:43,050
of the downside.

817
00:32:43,890 --> 00:32:45,330
So that's how we got comfortable with that.

818
00:32:45,470 --> 00:32:48,310
And that's that's one of the ways in

819
00:32:48,310 --> 00:32:51,010
every I'll say every every tantrum is different.

820
00:32:51,170 --> 00:32:52,710
I mean, we've bought municipal bonds in the

821
00:32:52,710 --> 00:32:53,790
past during tantrums.

822
00:32:53,890 --> 00:32:57,150
We've done really long term charities during tantrums.

823
00:32:57,250 --> 00:32:58,450
We've bought in the tantrums.

824
00:32:58,510 --> 00:33:01,110
We've done we've we've we've done the gamut

825
00:33:01,110 --> 00:33:01,750
of different things.

826
00:33:01,750 --> 00:33:04,410
But, you know, I think that's just the

827
00:33:04,410 --> 00:33:07,610
most recent example of a position that we

828
00:33:07,610 --> 00:33:09,310
did where we tried to really offset that

829
00:33:09,310 --> 00:33:09,730
correlation.

830
00:33:11,490 --> 00:33:11,590
Excellent.

831
00:33:12,210 --> 00:33:17,070
Well, it's obvious for our listeners to recognize

832
00:33:17,070 --> 00:33:22,130
that in every year there's different circumstances and

833
00:33:22,130 --> 00:33:23,470
new things to consider.

834
00:33:24,190 --> 00:33:27,070
But it's important, whether it's on the security

835
00:33:27,070 --> 00:33:30,850
level, on the macro level, there's a whole

836
00:33:30,850 --> 00:33:34,290
host of considerations to be thinking about, how

837
00:33:34,290 --> 00:33:36,550
should I be positioning my portfolio?

838
00:33:37,110 --> 00:33:39,910
And some of that relates to this this

839
00:33:39,910 --> 00:33:41,770
broad perspective on outlook.

840
00:33:42,210 --> 00:33:44,870
Some of it gets more into which industries

841
00:33:44,870 --> 00:33:47,590
will benefit, which will not.

842
00:33:48,130 --> 00:33:51,450
The fixed income, the interest rate environment, all

843
00:33:51,450 --> 00:33:54,270
of these are variables that we want to

844
00:33:54,270 --> 00:33:58,330
be responsive to how to be positioning the

845
00:33:58,330 --> 00:33:58,890
portfolio.

846
00:33:58,890 --> 00:34:02,230
And even more so, it's how does this

847
00:34:02,230 --> 00:34:03,550
fit into my context?

848
00:34:03,990 --> 00:34:05,430
What do I need for cash flow?

849
00:34:05,790 --> 00:34:08,429
How much am I demanding from this portfolio?

850
00:34:08,969 --> 00:34:11,449
How much can I tolerate downside risk?

851
00:34:12,130 --> 00:34:14,190
And that fits into a financial plan.

852
00:34:14,830 --> 00:34:17,449
So as you think about these issues, as

853
00:34:17,449 --> 00:34:20,790
you look ahead into this year, know for

854
00:34:20,790 --> 00:34:23,550
anyone who's our client, know we're paying attention

855
00:34:23,550 --> 00:34:24,830
and making adjustments.

856
00:34:25,429 --> 00:34:27,989
And Brian will be talking about that in

857
00:34:27,989 --> 00:34:30,630
an upcoming webinar for our clients.

858
00:34:30,949 --> 00:34:34,889
We'll make some of those comments, most of

859
00:34:34,889 --> 00:34:39,030
that available to our listeners on this YouTube

860
00:34:39,030 --> 00:34:41,650
channel as well and on our website.

861
00:34:42,050 --> 00:34:43,969
And we'll probably talk more about this with

862
00:34:43,969 --> 00:34:45,350
Brian on a future podcast.

863
00:34:45,750 --> 00:34:48,630
But and in the meantime, if you're listening

864
00:34:48,630 --> 00:34:51,170
and don't have the benefit of some of

865
00:34:51,170 --> 00:34:53,310
our insights, but would like to maybe get

866
00:34:53,310 --> 00:34:56,670
a chance to have a conversation, now's a

867
00:34:56,670 --> 00:34:57,250
perfect time.

868
00:34:57,350 --> 00:34:59,810
It's the time of year when people have

869
00:34:59,810 --> 00:35:01,830
a fresh set of eyes on things.

870
00:35:02,390 --> 00:35:04,190
We're happy to be a resource to you

871
00:35:04,190 --> 00:35:04,930
in that process.

872
00:35:05,510 --> 00:35:07,970
Complimentary consultation, really a two meeting process.

873
00:35:08,650 --> 00:35:10,510
Don't hesitate to take advantage of it.

874
00:35:10,750 --> 00:35:12,590
If we can be a resource to you,

875
00:35:12,810 --> 00:35:14,410
we're happy to do that.

876
00:35:14,890 --> 00:35:17,750
And with that in mind, guys, thanks so

877
00:35:17,750 --> 00:35:20,370
much for your time and for everyone.

878
00:35:20,370 --> 00:35:23,530
Until next time, keep striving for something more.

879
00:35:24,870 --> 00:35:26,850
Thank you for listening to something more with

880
00:35:26,850 --> 00:35:27,550
Chris Boyd.

881
00:35:27,870 --> 00:35:29,990
Call us for help, whether it's for financial

882
00:35:29,990 --> 00:35:33,930
planning or portfolio management, insurance concerns or those

883
00:35:33,930 --> 00:35:35,970
quality of life issues that make the money

884
00:35:35,970 --> 00:35:37,090
matters matter.

885
00:35:37,430 --> 00:35:39,570
Whatever's on your mind, visit us at something

886
00:35:39,570 --> 00:35:42,150
more with Chris Boyd dot com or call

887
00:35:42,150 --> 00:35:44,710
us toll free at eight six six seven

888
00:35:44,710 --> 00:35:47,530
seven one eight nine zero one.

889
00:35:47,530 --> 00:35:50,950
Or send us your questions to AMR dash

890
00:35:50,950 --> 00:35:53,390
info at Wealth Enhancement dot com.

891
00:35:53,790 --> 00:35:55,510
You're listening to something more with Chris Boyd

892
00:35:55,510 --> 00:35:58,130
Financial Talk Show Wealth Enhancement Advisory Services and

893
00:35:58,130 --> 00:36:00,270
Jay Christopher Boyd provide investment advice on an

894
00:36:00,270 --> 00:36:01,850
individual basis to clients only.

895
00:36:02,010 --> 00:36:03,970
Proper advice depends on a complete analysis of

896
00:36:03,970 --> 00:36:05,170
all facts and circumstances.

897
00:36:05,430 --> 00:36:07,250
The information given on this program is general

898
00:36:07,250 --> 00:36:09,290
financial comments and cannot be relied upon as

899
00:36:09,290 --> 00:36:10,890
pertaining to your specific situation.

900
00:36:11,070 --> 00:36:13,050
Wealth Enhancement Group cannot guarantee that using the

901
00:36:13,050 --> 00:36:15,050
information from this show will generate profits or

902
00:36:15,050 --> 00:36:16,170
ensure freedom from loss.

903
00:36:16,170 --> 00:36:18,530
Listeners should consult their own financial advisors or

904
00:36:18,530 --> 00:36:20,630
conduct their own due diligence before making any

905
00:36:20,630 --> 00:36:21,470
financial decisions.