Markets, Fears & AI: What’s Driving Today’s Rally?
In this episode of Something More, Chris Boyd and Brian Regan dive into the big questions oninvestors’ minds: fears of a market crash, dollar dominance, government debt, and inflation. But it is not all doom and gloom - NVIDIA’s blockbuster earnings call has the market buzzing, with staggering growth projections and margins that defy expectations. Plus, a surprise jobs report adds fuel to the optimism. We will explore what this means for AI, energy demands, and the future of investing. Stay tuned for insights you will not want to miss!
#Investing #Markets #AI #NVIDIA #Earnings #DollarDominance #Inflation #TechStocks
#FinancialPodcast #ChrisBoyd #EconomicTrends #StockMarket #JobsReport
For more information or to reach TEAM AMR, click the following link:
https://www.wealthenhancement.com/advisor-teams/amr-team
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On this episode of Something More, I'm with
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Brian Regan, we're talking about markets and fears,
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the dollar dominance and earnings, what's driving markets
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today.
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Welcome to Something More with Chris Boyd.
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Chris Boyd is a Certified Financial Planner Practitioner
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and Senior Vice President and Financial Advisor at
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Wealth Enhancement Group, one of the nation's largest
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registered investment advisors.
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We call it Something More because we'd like
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to talk not only about those important dollar
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and cents issues, but also the quality of
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life issues that make the money matters matter.
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Here he is, your fulfillment facilitator, your partner
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in prosperity, advising clients on Cape Cod and
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across the country.
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Here's your host, Jay Christopher Boyd.
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Welcome to Something More with Chris Boyd.
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I'm here with Brian Regan.
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We are both of the AMR team.
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Glad to have you joining us.
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Lots to talk about today.
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I think we've been getting these questions.
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It's not unusual.
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We get, sometimes it's a Facebook video, sometimes
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it's a email, newsletter, promo, all these things
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that play on fears that people have.
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So I thought we might touch on one
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of these that we got recently and just
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elaborate on, are these fears you should have
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or not?
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And there's a variety of them that come
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through routinely.
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These days, there's lots of things that people
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are worried about.
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They're worried about a crash.
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They're worried about dollar dominance.
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They're worried about the government debt.
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They're worried about inflation.
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There's so many things.
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So we're going to talk about some of
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those.
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But before we do, Brian, you were saying
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there's a lot of really good news today,
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in particular, based on a recent earnings call.
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Tell us about that.
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We got the conference call.
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It was much anticipated conference call from NVIDIA
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last night.
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And it was the best, I mean, probably
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the best conference call I've ever heard in
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my entire life.
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Not only are they growing north of 60
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% as a $5 trillion company, they gave
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guidance for all of 26 to the tune
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of $500 billion in sales.
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So half a trillion dollars in sales.
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Just unbelievable.
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They said they expect the hyperscalers to spend
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closer to $600 billion in 2026.
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About $450 billion here in 2025.
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The numbers are staggering.
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I mean, the press release says the AI
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GPU chip sales are off the And that's
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their words, not mine.
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But it's true.
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And not only that, they're selling these things
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at 75% margins.
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When was the last time you heard of
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a hardware company selling anything in a 75
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% margin?
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They got software like margins and sales that's
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almost hard to believe.
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If you weren't getting confirmation from all their
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biggest customers at the same time, I don't
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think I would believe it.
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I would say it's too good to be
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true, but it's just shocking.
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So the market's up nearly 2% as
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I speak this morning.
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And I think a lot of those fears
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have been pushed off into the future, at
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least with the anticipation of an AI bubble.
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The talk of an AI bubble, which was
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in a bubble, popped.
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This is great news for the market.
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One thing when you're investing in anything is
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you don't know the future.
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And when the biggest company in the world
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can come out and tell you that they
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have pretty good views on the next 12
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months, and not only that, but their view
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is a $500 billion number in sales, that's
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the most you could possibly ask for.
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We talk about the consistency and growth.
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What's better than that?
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The fear is that, of course, they're going
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to overbuild and the cost of compute is
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going to come down and a lot of
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these data centers and the people funding them
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will get stressed financially.
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And I think that's almost inevitable.
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It's part of the animal spirits of the
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United States.
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We're going to build as long as we
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think there's an opportunity.
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And if people are buying, you're going to
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go into debt to supply the product until
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there's too much of that product.
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It's kind of a classic business cycle.
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But I don't think there's any, I think
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we've got confirmation that there's no signs of
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that right now.
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It's incredible.
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That's fabulous.
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And that's good news for investors who've had
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this worry.
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Are we toppy?
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Are we worried about things slowing down?
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And then the kicker on top of that,
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we got a jobs report today.
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We haven't had one in a while because
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of the government shutdown.
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And it was a banger number, 119,000
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jobs added.
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We were expecting flat, negative, and that's a
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solid number.
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I mean, there's a lot of caveats in
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that and one data point certainly doesn't make
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a trend, but that's good news to me.
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One of the things people worry about, it
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seems when it comes to the whole AI
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story is the energy implications and the demands
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that it has for that and how that
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will be satisfied, whether that will affect rates
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for consumers.
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Talk to that issue and how that's being
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addressed and what's your crystal ball sharing with
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us on that today, as far as what
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do you think is happening there?
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I don't have a crystal ball, of course,
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but what I think is going to happen
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is the compute per watt is going to
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continue to decline.
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I say continue because with each iteration of,
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let's just talk about what NVIDIA talked about
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last night, with each iteration of their product
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that they've produced, they may really get more
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compute power per watt of energy.
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More efficiency essentially then, huh?
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Yeah.
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Of course, they use more energy because they're
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adding and adding more and more tokens, but
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if you get more and more and more
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efficient chips, you might solve that issue in
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the data center just by getting more and
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more advanced chips.
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I think that's the hope and part of
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the reason why you're seeing NVIDIA with $500
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billion in AI sales in 2026, where to
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my knowledge, no other company is coming anywhere
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close to that number.
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Explain to us NVIDIA's role in all this.
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Do they provide the technology, the software that
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is in these chips, or do they actually
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create the hardware?
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Both.
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This is something that's very important to understand
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because the way I've always evaluated these things
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is that software dominates.
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This comes back from, if you go back
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on analysis of IBM, what happened between IBM
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and Microsoft and then even Compaq and Dell,
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the hardware providers kind of fell to the
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wayside, right?
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They became commoditized.
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The software producer became the standard bearer across
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all PCs and ended up dominating for, you
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know, Microsoft still dominating.
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When evaluating the AI landscape, the software provider
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became very important to me.
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It's one of the things that made me
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think that the big winners were going to
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be the cloud providers because the cloud providers
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can build their own software that app developers
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can build on.
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Now, there is some of this going on.
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If the cloud computing companies, which are the
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hyperscalers for lack of a better word, really
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Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, if they build their own
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thing, they can diversify the types of chips
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they're going to use.
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That's all well and good, but the standard
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so far is NVIDIA software.
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They're loading a program called CUDA onto these
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chips.
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We say chips, and I think people think
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of like a little, you know, microchip that's
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in your PC.
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These are really just servers, right?
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They're big computers at this point.
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And they run a program called CUDA on
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it, which helps you do the pre-training,
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the post-training, and the inference for all
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these LLMs. So, they have a dominant leadership
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role in both the hardware and the software,
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which I don't have a parallel for.
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I mean, that's pretty amazing.
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That would be like if Microsoft also had
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the dominant PC.
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I guess in some ways it would be,
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you know, Apple was a good kind of
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closest thing, but they didn't have anywhere near
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the market share, right?
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The Apple computer, the Mac, you know, never
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became the standard in PCs.
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It's widely used as we know.
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They did become the standard in mobile.
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So, it'll be interesting to see how this
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plays out over time, and it's something that
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you need to continue to monitor, but nothing
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but good news.
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I'm actually surprised the market's not up more.
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Yeah.
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Very good.
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Well, thanks for sharing that.
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Let's talk about some of these recurring things
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that play on people's fears.
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We see these routinely.
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I mean, you and I, we've been doing
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this for a while.
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We've seen this with particular clients who get
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on a mailing list or an email list,
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and they're particularly susceptible to all these come
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-ons, I'll call it, because they're trying to
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sell a book or sell gold or sell,
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you know, some alternative way of doing things
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or a newsletter or something.
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But in this case, I had a client
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share a video that, you know, obviously it
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spoke of a variety of concerns, and, you
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know, my impression was it created some anxiety
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for them, and they were saying, hey, help
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me navigate this.
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So I suspect these kind of things get
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presented to people all the time, and it
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gnaws at them a little bit.
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And so I thought, let's try to demystify
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some of these a little bit.
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So one particular one that, gosh, I hear
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a lot is this question of the dollar's
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dominance being eroded, and is this something that's
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imminently problematic, that we do see China trying
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to do business, Russia trying to do business
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outside of the dollar, because, of course, we've
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tried to use the banking system to try
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to create problems for them, to punish them
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for activities that we consider improper or undesirable.
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So there is this move to, you know,
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we see it for China paying for oil
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outside of the dollar, right, things like this.
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So is this something that's imminently problematic?
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What's the percentage of activity that's done in
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the dollar, maybe you don't have to know
265
00:11:29,510 --> 00:11:33,310
often, but in ballpark, of all the transactions
266
00:11:33,310 --> 00:11:34,390
that happen in the world?
267
00:11:36,150 --> 00:11:38,730
So this isn't an issue at all.
268
00:11:40,230 --> 00:11:41,250
I'll start there.
269
00:11:42,770 --> 00:11:44,470
I always tell my wife that she buries
270
00:11:44,470 --> 00:11:45,870
the lead, especially when all my kids go
271
00:11:45,870 --> 00:11:47,110
to the doctor, you know, so I'm not
272
00:11:47,110 --> 00:11:47,730
going to bury the lead.
273
00:11:47,730 --> 00:11:49,550
This is a non-issue.
274
00:11:51,970 --> 00:11:55,150
Could it someday be an issue?
275
00:11:55,570 --> 00:11:59,170
Maybe, you know, that's a long way off
276
00:11:59,170 --> 00:12:01,270
before that's something to be worried about.
277
00:12:01,730 --> 00:12:03,690
I'm going to address your question, but I
278
00:12:03,690 --> 00:12:08,030
have a little preamble on getting information on
279
00:12:08,030 --> 00:12:10,630
social media before I do that.
280
00:12:10,910 --> 00:12:13,690
So don't get your information on social media.
281
00:12:14,370 --> 00:12:15,390
That's it, right?
282
00:12:15,550 --> 00:12:17,770
That's the main sentence.
283
00:12:18,450 --> 00:12:21,570
The video that I was shared, you know,
284
00:12:22,570 --> 00:12:25,370
I wrote two articles on LinkedIn based on
285
00:12:25,370 --> 00:12:26,530
the same Wall Street Journal article.
286
00:12:27,250 --> 00:12:30,930
One of them was, you know, why people
287
00:12:30,930 --> 00:12:32,230
are stressed economically.
288
00:12:32,290 --> 00:12:33,650
It was a pretty negative article.
289
00:12:34,110 --> 00:12:36,550
It got four times as many opens and
290
00:12:36,550 --> 00:12:38,730
reads than the positive spin I put on
291
00:12:38,730 --> 00:12:39,150
it afterwards.
292
00:12:40,630 --> 00:12:43,190
So that's all you really need to know
293
00:12:43,190 --> 00:12:47,810
about how your social media feed is giving
294
00:12:47,810 --> 00:12:48,010
you.
295
00:12:48,210 --> 00:12:50,930
It's going to serve you people who are
296
00:12:50,930 --> 00:12:51,810
preying on your fears.
297
00:12:52,590 --> 00:12:55,270
So with that, I'll try to answer your
298
00:12:55,270 --> 00:12:55,470
question.
299
00:12:55,590 --> 00:12:58,550
The overwhelming amount of international transactions are still
300
00:12:58,550 --> 00:12:59,230
done in the dollar.
301
00:13:00,050 --> 00:13:02,830
It is true that there is a decline
302
00:13:02,830 --> 00:13:07,630
in treasury bank assets, central bank assets, particularly
303
00:13:07,630 --> 00:13:10,270
in countries that, you know, you might consider
304
00:13:10,270 --> 00:13:10,750
foes.
305
00:13:11,010 --> 00:13:15,510
And this started more heavily during when we
306
00:13:15,510 --> 00:13:18,090
cut off access to the Swiss system with
307
00:13:18,090 --> 00:13:20,910
Russia when they invaded Ukraine.
308
00:13:21,030 --> 00:13:23,650
So this essentially made it very difficult or
309
00:13:23,650 --> 00:13:25,870
impossible to get the dollars that they had
310
00:13:25,870 --> 00:13:27,830
in central banks across the world.
311
00:13:28,290 --> 00:13:30,730
So they resorted to other things.
312
00:13:32,010 --> 00:13:33,230
Excuse me, I'm fighting a cold.
313
00:13:33,690 --> 00:13:34,830
They resorted to other things.
314
00:13:34,890 --> 00:13:36,190
Most notably, they started buying gold.
315
00:13:37,470 --> 00:13:39,050
And that's part of the reason why we've
316
00:13:39,050 --> 00:13:41,010
seen a big gold run up in the
317
00:13:41,010 --> 00:13:41,790
last few years.
318
00:13:42,710 --> 00:13:44,590
But no, I don't think this is an
319
00:13:44,590 --> 00:13:44,810
issue.
320
00:13:44,950 --> 00:13:47,870
I think this is mostly preying on fears
321
00:13:47,870 --> 00:13:51,110
of people with a kernel of truth, which
322
00:13:51,110 --> 00:13:52,910
I think is pretty common.
323
00:13:53,750 --> 00:13:55,730
The other part of that article, Chris, was
324
00:13:57,350 --> 00:13:58,930
the erosions of the rule of law in
325
00:13:58,930 --> 00:13:59,470
the United States.
326
00:13:59,570 --> 00:14:01,530
And I actually think this could be a
327
00:14:01,530 --> 00:14:02,110
real problem.
328
00:14:02,570 --> 00:14:02,670
Right.
329
00:14:03,610 --> 00:14:06,710
Me and you and Jeff often talk about
330
00:14:06,710 --> 00:14:09,770
things and how it might affect the markets.
331
00:14:10,650 --> 00:14:15,030
And usually in the past you had, you
332
00:14:15,030 --> 00:14:16,350
know, you had a good guidepost.
333
00:14:16,450 --> 00:14:17,410
You say, well, that's illegal.
334
00:14:17,790 --> 00:14:18,550
It's not going to happen.
335
00:14:18,850 --> 00:14:20,270
So if the market goes down based on
336
00:14:20,270 --> 00:14:22,050
that news, you knew it was a buying
337
00:14:22,050 --> 00:14:22,570
opportunity.
338
00:14:23,010 --> 00:14:23,390
Right.
339
00:14:23,790 --> 00:14:27,870
But now one party controls both parts of
340
00:14:27,870 --> 00:14:30,390
Congress and in the Supreme Court.
341
00:14:31,130 --> 00:14:35,250
So there's an overwhelming amount of power in
342
00:14:35,250 --> 00:14:37,390
the executive branch.
343
00:14:37,970 --> 00:14:40,450
And the reality is that overwhelming amount of
344
00:14:40,450 --> 00:14:43,530
power needs to be checked or the laws
345
00:14:44,210 --> 00:14:45,310
aren't really that applicable.
346
00:14:46,130 --> 00:14:48,230
So this is a real concern.
347
00:14:48,530 --> 00:14:54,150
You have less assurance on what the outcome
348
00:14:54,150 --> 00:14:55,330
of certain events is going to be.
349
00:14:55,790 --> 00:14:58,110
Now, despite that, the markets have done very
350
00:14:58,110 --> 00:14:58,430
well.
351
00:14:58,830 --> 00:15:02,890
So they've seemed to have brushed this, let's
352
00:15:02,890 --> 00:15:07,310
call it political event where, you know, things
353
00:15:07,310 --> 00:15:08,810
might change in a year, things might change
354
00:15:08,810 --> 00:15:09,450
in three years.
355
00:15:10,910 --> 00:15:12,770
And, you know, the market's looking through that
356
00:15:12,770 --> 00:15:15,530
and they're concentrating on things like unbelievable earnings
357
00:15:15,530 --> 00:15:18,690
from the AI part of the market, which
358
00:15:18,690 --> 00:15:20,690
I think is the more important thing to
359
00:15:20,690 --> 00:15:22,930
focus on on a day to day basis.
360
00:15:23,590 --> 00:15:24,850
One of the things that you need to
361
00:15:24,850 --> 00:15:26,410
remember about the U.S. political system, at
362
00:15:26,410 --> 00:15:30,150
least today, is that we have elections every
363
00:15:30,150 --> 00:15:33,430
two years, which can reshape the government.
364
00:15:34,590 --> 00:15:36,250
And stocks are long term assets.
365
00:15:37,030 --> 00:15:39,630
When we evaluate and we value stocks, we
366
00:15:39,630 --> 00:15:40,530
look at the 10 year treasury.
367
00:15:40,990 --> 00:15:42,370
We don't look at the two year treasury.
368
00:15:43,030 --> 00:15:44,850
So a lot of these fears that people
369
00:15:44,850 --> 00:15:47,570
might be latching onto might just be looked
370
00:15:47,570 --> 00:15:49,690
through by the market.
371
00:15:49,690 --> 00:15:52,990
And it could be confusing to the average
372
00:15:52,990 --> 00:15:53,330
person.
373
00:15:56,160 --> 00:16:03,800
So it's one of these situations where we
374
00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:06,920
as a society, we have to be ever
375
00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:09,900
vigilant when it comes to the enforcement of
376
00:16:10,390 --> 00:16:12,880
the rule of law, because it affects us
377
00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:13,180
all.
378
00:16:14,140 --> 00:16:21,960
And it can impact the desirability of people
379
00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:25,840
willing to invest in the United States as
380
00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:27,120
compared to other options.
381
00:16:29,060 --> 00:16:31,140
I mean, tariffs are a good example of
382
00:16:31,140 --> 00:16:31,260
that.
383
00:16:31,500 --> 00:16:32,120
I was just going to go there.
384
00:16:32,380 --> 00:16:33,800
I mean, this is a little political in
385
00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:35,900
our nature, but in our conversation.
386
00:16:36,180 --> 00:16:38,280
But tariffs have been one of these issues
387
00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:44,380
this year that have created tensions with other
388
00:16:44,380 --> 00:16:45,400
parts of the world.
389
00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:49,980
How is this impacted, or do you envision
390
00:16:49,980 --> 00:16:52,740
this as having a prolonged impact in any
391
00:16:52,740 --> 00:16:57,780
way, on how others view investing in the
392
00:16:57,780 --> 00:16:58,380
United States?
393
00:16:58,780 --> 00:17:02,360
And how is this maybe impacted the dollar
394
00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:05,960
with regard to treasury investments as well?
395
00:17:06,540 --> 00:17:08,160
Look, it's no coincidence that we saw the
396
00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:10,099
dollar decline after April 2nd.
397
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:11,900
That's no coincidence in my mind.
398
00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:12,839
So what does that mean?
399
00:17:14,020 --> 00:17:17,339
Foreign buyers are buying less treasuries, bottom line.
400
00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:18,880
We've seen that in terms of central banks.
401
00:17:19,020 --> 00:17:20,200
They've had a preference for gold.
402
00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:22,900
Whether that's a long-term problem, I don't
403
00:17:22,900 --> 00:17:23,380
think so.
404
00:17:23,940 --> 00:17:25,720
When it comes to tariffs, to me, they're
405
00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:26,680
obviously illegal.
406
00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:28,300
This is a good example.
407
00:17:28,940 --> 00:17:30,820
It's before the Supreme Court right now.
408
00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:34,980
The Supreme Court, which has a, let's just
409
00:17:34,980 --> 00:17:38,040
call it President Trump bias, because many of
410
00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:42,460
the justices were appointed by President Trump, were
411
00:17:42,460 --> 00:17:44,240
at least asking some very, very hard questions
412
00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:47,880
to the administration's lawyers.
413
00:17:48,300 --> 00:17:51,000
I mean, it's so illegal that even the
414
00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:55,540
biased Supreme Court may reject it, which would
415
00:17:55,540 --> 00:17:56,180
be a good thing.
416
00:17:56,480 --> 00:18:00,300
The power to tax lies with Congress, by
417
00:18:00,300 --> 00:18:00,980
the Constitution.
418
00:18:01,740 --> 00:18:02,580
It's very clear.
419
00:18:03,120 --> 00:18:04,540
To me, this is cut and dry, but
420
00:18:04,540 --> 00:18:06,920
it's a great example of how do you
421
00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:07,580
act on that.
422
00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:12,460
It's a gigantic drag on the US economy.
423
00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:15,640
We're seeing it increase inflation.
424
00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:17,760
We're seeing it affect certain sectors.
425
00:18:18,420 --> 00:18:19,800
I think it would be great if the
426
00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:22,820
Supreme Court did the right thing and struck
427
00:18:22,820 --> 00:18:23,240
these down.
428
00:18:23,900 --> 00:18:27,460
Let's talk about topics that are other common
429
00:18:27,460 --> 00:18:35,520
fears that aren't necessarily these prompted by a
430
00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:39,160
video or something, but we've got worries of
431
00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:44,580
inflation, concerns about borrowing costs being higher.
432
00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:46,960
You talked about some of these in our
433
00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:51,560
recent video for clientele, our webinar, where, and
434
00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:53,380
this is, by the way, available on our
435
00:18:53,380 --> 00:18:55,540
website or on YouTube if you want to
436
00:18:55,540 --> 00:18:59,420
see Brian's most recent economic and market outlook.
437
00:18:59,920 --> 00:19:01,720
What can you tell us about some of
438
00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:06,680
the challenges that are occurring within the economy
439
00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:07,240
today?
440
00:19:08,060 --> 00:19:12,960
Student loan debt rising, the challenges of buying
441
00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:13,680
a home even.
442
00:19:14,060 --> 00:19:16,460
How is this working into the economy?
443
00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:19,900
Is this something investors should be paying attention
444
00:19:19,900 --> 00:19:21,600
to and have as a concern?
445
00:19:22,580 --> 00:19:24,920
Yeah, I think those are interesting issues.
446
00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:28,440
They're not necessarily related to tariffs like we
447
00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:30,060
were just talking to, but student loans and
448
00:19:30,060 --> 00:19:32,680
home buying and car buying, I think, are
449
00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:34,060
very much related.
450
00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:36,820
It's very hard to try to find data
451
00:19:36,820 --> 00:19:38,260
on this, so I wish I had some
452
00:19:38,260 --> 00:19:40,540
more facts, but you can do some common
453
00:19:40,540 --> 00:19:42,240
sense analysis, right?
454
00:19:42,540 --> 00:19:45,460
So between 2028-2029- Between my tie
455
00:19:45,460 --> 00:19:47,400
-in with the tariffs in my mind there,
456
00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:49,640
I guess that was probably where I tried
457
00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:50,900
to connect those dots.
458
00:19:51,020 --> 00:19:52,260
Well, in the webinar, I put them all
459
00:19:52,260 --> 00:19:52,760
together, right?
460
00:19:52,860 --> 00:19:54,780
They were part of things that were drags
461
00:19:54,780 --> 00:19:55,380
on the economy.
462
00:19:55,700 --> 00:19:59,480
So I think student loans may be being
463
00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:02,640
overlooked and how it's affecting stocks like CarMax.
464
00:20:02,820 --> 00:20:05,320
If they just fire their CEO, their stock's
465
00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:06,340
down 50% this year.
466
00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:11,800
So between 2020 and 2024, people did not
467
00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:12,740
need to pay their student loans.
468
00:20:13,460 --> 00:20:14,220
So what did they do?
469
00:20:14,620 --> 00:20:15,600
They paid down all their debt.
470
00:20:15,740 --> 00:20:16,920
They improved their credit scores.
471
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:18,160
They bought cars.
472
00:20:18,260 --> 00:20:19,200
They bought houses.
473
00:20:19,340 --> 00:20:23,220
We saw rapid inflation in those areas, right?
474
00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:26,580
Now, we're seeing as people need to pay
475
00:20:26,580 --> 00:20:30,740
their student loans again, you're seeing default rates
476
00:20:30,740 --> 00:20:32,140
go back up to the historical norm.
477
00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:37,220
Nothing crazy outside the historical norm, but when
478
00:20:37,220 --> 00:20:39,660
you go from zero for four years to
479
00:20:39,660 --> 00:20:42,560
the historical norm of 10% with 4
480
00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:45,460
million people, 4 to 5 million people getting
481
00:20:45,460 --> 00:20:47,440
hit on their credit scores by 150 basis
482
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:47,760
points.
483
00:20:48,420 --> 00:20:50,820
150 points, I say two years the same
484
00:20:50,820 --> 00:20:51,240
basis points.
485
00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:57,400
So let's say you go into this with
486
00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:03,460
a 720 prime borrower, doing well, able to
487
00:21:03,460 --> 00:21:05,400
buy a house, able to finance a car.
488
00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:07,500
You miss your student loan payment.
489
00:21:08,180 --> 00:21:10,900
You go down to 570, you're subprime.
490
00:21:11,340 --> 00:21:12,820
You can't buy a house.
491
00:21:12,980 --> 00:21:14,060
You can't buy a car.
492
00:21:14,700 --> 00:21:15,420
What's going to happen?
493
00:21:15,700 --> 00:21:20,440
Well, what we're seeing is people aren't buying
494
00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:21,140
cars, right?
495
00:21:21,340 --> 00:21:22,120
At least not used cars.
496
00:21:22,120 --> 00:21:24,560
You slow down in these kinds of possibilities.
497
00:21:24,820 --> 00:21:24,940
Yeah.
498
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:29,440
So new cars are doing okay, I'd say,
499
00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:32,600
but the used cars market is in trouble
500
00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:33,400
right now.
501
00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:34,420
And I think this is a big part
502
00:21:34,420 --> 00:21:34,680
of it.
503
00:21:35,540 --> 00:21:39,520
You can agree or disagree, but anecdotally, it
504
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,320
certainly seems like the housing market is correcting
505
00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:43,360
to me.
506
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:45,460
I live in the Northeast.
507
00:21:46,580 --> 00:21:48,120
Supposedly, this is one of the better markets
508
00:21:48,120 --> 00:21:50,060
in the country, and I'm seeing nothing but
509
00:21:50,060 --> 00:21:54,080
price declines, or houses sitting on the market
510
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:54,900
for a long time.
511
00:21:55,460 --> 00:21:57,420
And we all know between 2020 and 2024,
512
00:21:57,620 --> 00:21:59,020
if you tried to buy a house, there
513
00:21:59,020 --> 00:21:59,960
was a line at the door at the
514
00:21:59,960 --> 00:22:04,100
open house, and you were damn lucky if
515
00:22:04,100 --> 00:22:07,680
you got an offer accepted that was waiving
516
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:08,380
contingencies.
517
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:12,420
So to me, the housing market's cooled.
518
00:22:13,140 --> 00:22:15,120
The car market's cooled significantly.
519
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,140
Maybe not to the degree that make it
520
00:22:19,140 --> 00:22:21,980
possible for people to buy, but in a
521
00:22:21,980 --> 00:22:24,940
liquid market like the housing market, it takes
522
00:22:24,940 --> 00:22:25,380
time.
523
00:22:25,540 --> 00:22:27,500
How long does your house need to be
524
00:22:27,500 --> 00:22:28,580
on the market for you to cut the
525
00:22:28,580 --> 00:22:28,960
price?
526
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:34,900
30, 60, 90, 120 days.
527
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:36,380
It depends.
528
00:22:36,580 --> 00:22:38,080
If you have a 3% mortgage on
529
00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,140
that, or if it's paid off, you might
530
00:22:40,140 --> 00:22:41,600
keep it on there until the market turns.
531
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:42,940
You might wait for the spring market.
532
00:22:43,360 --> 00:22:46,640
At least in Massachusetts, there's basically...
533
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,020
The house buying tends to start in April,
534
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:51,860
and it ends by August, because you want
535
00:22:51,860 --> 00:22:53,580
to close before kids go to school.
536
00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:57,960
So it might be a function of that
537
00:22:57,960 --> 00:22:59,400
as well, but we're seeing it across the
538
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:00,540
country that this is the case.
539
00:23:00,660 --> 00:23:02,600
And I do think it's one of the
540
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:04,020
drugs that we're having on the economy right
541
00:23:04,020 --> 00:23:06,640
now, which importantly is being offset by this
542
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:07,400
boom in AI.
543
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:10,520
And that's maybe an important perspective.
544
00:23:10,780 --> 00:23:12,980
So you've talked about this, that there's these
545
00:23:12,980 --> 00:23:17,620
two ends of this story, one being some
546
00:23:17,620 --> 00:23:19,240
of the challenges that we face, but at
547
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:21,660
the same time, there is this very favorable
548
00:23:21,660 --> 00:23:27,060
economic impact, and obviously market benefit, the AI
549
00:23:27,060 --> 00:23:28,720
story and how it's playing out.
550
00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:30,440
There's this great chart we have in the
551
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:33,600
webinar where we show the decline in building
552
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:36,580
for office buildings and the increase for data
553
00:23:36,580 --> 00:23:38,560
centers, and they're almost a one-for-one
554
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:38,960
change.
555
00:23:39,660 --> 00:23:42,120
So if you were banking on construction workers
556
00:23:42,120 --> 00:23:44,300
losing their jobs across the country because we
557
00:23:44,300 --> 00:23:46,420
were going to build less houses because of
558
00:23:46,420 --> 00:23:50,600
less demand, and we were going to build
559
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:53,180
less office buildings, well, that's been offset by
560
00:23:53,180 --> 00:23:54,060
this AI economy.
561
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,180
And I think it's important not to focus
562
00:23:57,180 --> 00:24:00,600
on one or the other, because they're both
563
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:01,480
important, right?
564
00:24:02,180 --> 00:24:03,200
It's a yin and a yang.
565
00:24:03,580 --> 00:24:08,420
And I find that people struggle to put
566
00:24:08,420 --> 00:24:10,920
both sides of that economy together, and it
567
00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:11,540
is a struggle.
568
00:24:13,360 --> 00:24:15,640
Yeah, because it affects different people in different
569
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:16,020
ways.
570
00:24:19,180 --> 00:24:21,760
We have an individual stock portfolio with the
571
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:24,280
AMR team here at Wealth Enhancement, and I
572
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:26,760
noticed that we tend to outperform if AI
573
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:29,180
is kind of not as in vogue that
574
00:24:29,180 --> 00:24:32,820
day, and we underperform if it's in vogue.
575
00:24:33,180 --> 00:24:33,880
And why is that?
576
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:36,200
Because, you know, NVIDIA is 8% of
577
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:36,900
the S&P 500.
578
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:38,680
I don't have an 8% position in
579
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:39,020
anything.
580
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:44,400
And because I have this yin and yang
581
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:45,200
in my brain, right?
582
00:24:45,380 --> 00:24:48,380
So when things are going really, really well,
583
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:50,320
we'll do well too, but not as well.
584
00:24:50,700 --> 00:24:54,260
And when things in the AI tend to
585
00:24:54,260 --> 00:24:59,040
ebb, we might actually outperform on the risk
586
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:00,020
adjusted side.
587
00:25:01,180 --> 00:25:02,880
So, you know, an interesting way of how
588
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:06,340
this view is expressed in our individual stock
589
00:25:06,340 --> 00:25:08,660
portfolio and how it actually affects day-to
590
00:25:08,660 --> 00:25:09,600
-day performance and volatility.
591
00:25:11,380 --> 00:25:12,920
Well, I think we should at some point
592
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:16,740
have a follow-up conversation about AI in
593
00:25:16,740 --> 00:25:19,160
one of the things people worry about is
594
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:23,340
how will this adversely affect, you know, disrupt
595
00:25:23,340 --> 00:25:24,860
the workforce?
596
00:25:25,300 --> 00:25:29,000
But is there, again, the yin and yang
597
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:29,500
of that?
598
00:25:30,380 --> 00:25:33,660
When there's disruption, there's also new efficiencies.
599
00:25:34,100 --> 00:25:37,400
There can be new opportunities in terms of
600
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:40,460
where there's job opportunity as well.
601
00:25:40,620 --> 00:25:43,540
So it's one of those things people worry
602
00:25:43,540 --> 00:25:43,880
about.
603
00:25:43,940 --> 00:25:45,660
Will this put people out of work?
604
00:25:45,820 --> 00:25:48,560
But it may also create some opportunities that
605
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:51,560
people haven't maybe even conceived of yet.
606
00:25:51,900 --> 00:25:53,220
Well, we don't know much, right?
607
00:25:53,460 --> 00:25:55,060
But we do know a few things.
608
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:56,460
It is going to put people out of
609
00:25:56,460 --> 00:25:57,240
work.
610
00:25:57,820 --> 00:25:59,380
It's not going to happen like a light
611
00:25:59,380 --> 00:25:59,700
switch.
612
00:25:59,860 --> 00:26:01,200
It's going to happen gradually.
613
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:04,720
And hopefully those folks will get retrained doing
614
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:05,760
something else over time.
615
00:26:07,220 --> 00:26:08,700
You know, I don't think that's as easy
616
00:26:08,700 --> 00:26:10,540
in the world these days as maybe it
617
00:26:10,540 --> 00:26:12,680
was in prior technological changes.
618
00:26:13,360 --> 00:26:15,040
It doesn't seem like much of a desire
619
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,840
to actually retrain people in the workforce these
620
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:18,100
days.
621
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:24,200
You know, every major technological change has come
622
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,880
with more productivity, more growth, and more jobs.
623
00:26:28,620 --> 00:26:29,840
I hope that's the case.
624
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:32,560
Elon Musk, he thinks that we have a
625
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:34,600
future of optional work.
626
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:36,780
I don't know.
627
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:37,820
It sounds great, I guess.
628
00:26:37,820 --> 00:26:38,420
Nice.
629
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:43,480
Well, to be discussed more fully another time.
630
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,740
With that, Brian, thanks for sharing some insights,
631
00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:48,760
both a little bit of optimism, I would
632
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:50,920
say, with a dose of realism.
633
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:53,580
You know, we've got our challenges.
634
00:26:54,120 --> 00:26:55,440
There are these issues.
635
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:57,740
We hear from clients about certain concerns.
636
00:26:58,220 --> 00:26:59,740
Thanks for putting a little light on that.
637
00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:04,740
But also this really encouraging news in today's
638
00:27:04,740 --> 00:27:08,220
market that maybe helps people feel a little
639
00:27:08,220 --> 00:27:10,680
bit easier about the question of a bubble
640
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:13,180
when it comes to the AI story.
641
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:15,540
With that, if you need help with thinking
642
00:27:15,540 --> 00:27:18,000
about your portfolio, you need a second opinion,
643
00:27:18,180 --> 00:27:20,520
you want to talk about right-sizing some
644
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:22,680
of your positions, maybe you have some tax
645
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:24,140
challenges that you're dealing with.
646
00:27:25,140 --> 00:27:27,200
Maybe you're just dealing with, hey, I'm not
647
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:28,380
sure I want to be the one who
648
00:27:28,380 --> 00:27:31,300
deals with this as the prime decision maker.
649
00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:33,100
I'd like to delegate some of this work.
650
00:27:33,100 --> 00:27:35,120
See if we're a good fit for you.
651
00:27:35,380 --> 00:27:37,480
Certainly come in for a complimentary consultation.
652
00:27:38,100 --> 00:27:41,400
We're available to you whenever it's desirable.
653
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:43,840
We'd love to be a help as you
654
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:44,980
go into a new year.
655
00:27:45,360 --> 00:27:46,600
It might be a good time to be
656
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:50,380
thinking about a conversation with getting some assistance.
657
00:27:50,500 --> 00:27:53,220
Until next time, keep striving for something more.
658
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:55,800
Thank you for listening to Something More with
659
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:56,500
Chris Boyd.
660
00:27:56,820 --> 00:27:58,980
Call us for help, whether it's for financial
661
00:27:58,980 --> 00:28:02,900
planning or portfolio management, insurance concerns, or those
662
00:28:02,900 --> 00:28:04,960
quality of life issues that make the money
663
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:06,040
matters matter.
664
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:09,660
Whatever's on your mind, visit us at somethingmorewithchrisboyd
665
00:28:09,660 --> 00:28:12,880
.com, or call us toll-free at 866
666
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:18,400
-771-8901, or send us your questions to
667
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:22,360
amr-info at wealthenhancement.com.
668
00:28:22,500 --> 00:28:24,480
You're listening to Something More with Chris Boyd
669
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:25,320
Financial Talk Show.
670
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:27,940
Wealth Enhancement Advisory Services and Jay Christopher Boyd
671
00:28:27,940 --> 00:28:30,220
provide investment advice on an individual basis to
672
00:28:30,220 --> 00:28:30,800
clients only.
673
00:28:31,020 --> 00:28:32,940
Proper advice depends on a complete analysis of
674
00:28:32,940 --> 00:28:34,140
all facts and circumstances.
675
00:28:34,420 --> 00:28:36,220
The information given on this program is general
676
00:28:36,220 --> 00:28:38,260
financial comments and cannot be relied upon as
677
00:28:38,260 --> 00:28:39,840
pertaining to your specific situation.
678
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:42,020
Wealth Enhancement Group cannot guarantee that using the
679
00:28:42,020 --> 00:28:44,020
information from this show will generate profits or
680
00:28:44,020 --> 00:28:45,140
ensure freedom from loss.
681
00:28:45,340 --> 00:28:47,500
Listeners should consult their own financial advisors or
682
00:28:47,500 --> 00:28:49,600
conduct their own due diligence before making any
683
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:50,380
financial decisions.