In the News - Google’s Court Ruling, Stablecoin Regulation, and Presidential Power

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Welcome to Something More with Chris Boyd.

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Chris Boyd is a certified financial planner, practitioner,

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and senior vice president and financial advisor at

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Wealth Enhancement Group, one of the nation's largest

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registered investment advisors.

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We call it Something More because we'd like

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to talk not only about those important dollar

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and cents issues, but also the quality of

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life issues that make the money matters matter.

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Here he is, your fulfillment facilitator, your partner

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in prosperity, advising clients on Cape Cod and

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across the country.

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Here's your host, Jay Christopher Boyd.

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Welcome.

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Thanks for being with us for another episode

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of Something More with Chris Boyd.

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I'm here with Jeff Perry and Brian Regan.

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We are all of the AMR team at

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Wealth Enhancement and glad to have you joining

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us.

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We're talking about things that are in the

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news.

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Some really interesting things have been evolving.

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Brian wanted to lead us off because of

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a recent court decision as it related to

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Google that could have some significant consequence in

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terms of...

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Now, Google had this court decision a while

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back, but it was about this antitrust consequence

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and what kind of requirements were going to

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be placed upon them.

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Is that essentially the gist?

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Yeah, they were found to have maintained an

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illegal monopoly in internet search, but the news

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was the remedy that the court put on

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them, which was viewed as the market is

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pretty insignificant.

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There were some serious outcomes that could have

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come, including divesting Chrome and Android and YouTube,

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none of which came to pass.

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It was viewed as very good news.

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They do have to share some search index

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data.

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They basically have to share their algorithm, which

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has been their competitive advantage for 20 years

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with likely qualified rivals.

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They can't do exclusive contracts.

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For example, they've had an exclusive contract with

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Apple to be their default search provider on

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the iPhone, which as you can imagine is

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a big competitive advantage.

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Apple was getting something to the tune of

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$30 billion a year in order to be

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that search provider.

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Now, in search, that wasn't deemed to be

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a bad deal, but for new products going

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forward, as you can imagine, the Gen AI

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products, you're not going to be able to

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have those exclusive agreements.

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You can have non-exclusive agreements, but you

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can't have exclusive agreements.

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So you saw Apple rally on the news,

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right?

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Because they're going to be able to still

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partner with Google as long as they're quote

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unquote non-exclusive.

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I'm not quite sure how that would work.

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But ultimately, even though their search platform was

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hurt and they're not going to be able

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to do the same types of things by

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having exclusive contracts with Apple, for example, for

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the next Gen AI products, their real distribution

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network wasn't hurt too much, right?

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From a strategic standpoint.

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So if you use Google and you use

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Google on Chrome, you use Google on Apple,

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you use Google through your Android, you're probably

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still going to be able to use Google

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on your Android, on your iPhone and through

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Chrome.

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So all that was viewed as very, very

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positive, both for Apple and Alphabet.

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YouTube's going to remain, Chrome's going to remain,

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Android's going to remain.

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So this was very positive.

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And this was definitely something that was keeping

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Google's rating down.

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I don't really like to talk about price

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earnings ratios, but this could likely have a

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re-rating closer to where the other mega

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cap growth names are sitting rather than the

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sub-market PE ratio that they've been enjoying.

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Ryan, wasn't part of the perception as to

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why the judge was maybe a little more

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lenient than expected?

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Because perhaps with the AI evolution that people

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are using some of these tools in a

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way that they might've at one time used

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Google, but there's naturally evolving greater competition to

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Google for the search engine.

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Yeah, I agree with that.

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I mean, I think this ruling might be

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10 years too late.

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They might've made a real difference a decade

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ago, but today, like Chris mentioned, there's all

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sorts of competition from these new entrants, whether

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it be OpenAI or ChatGPT or Grok or

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Facebook's product or Amazon's product.

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There's tons of competition there now.

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I think these exclusive right deals will be

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interesting to see how, if anybody could end

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up being the dominant AI, gen AI platform

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going forward.

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But what I suspect is if you use

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an Android, if you use Chrome, you're probably

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going to be a Gemini user.

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That's what I'm expecting.

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I think that's the assumption under this ruling.

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And if you're used to using Google on

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Apple, you might continue to continue to use

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Google on Apple and probably more likely to

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become a Gemini user over everything else.

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So I think that's the general reaction today.

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I think there's still question marks for the

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future, but I think there's certainly less question

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marks than there were before this ruling.

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I'll be honest, when I first got the

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headline alert pushed to my phone, I thought

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Google would be down.

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But then reading more and understanding more about

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it, I think this is the appropriate response.

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More like a relief rally, right, Brian?

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The fears of what this judge could have

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done as a remedy didn't happen, so the

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market responded accordingly.

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That's how I viewed it.

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I just don't think anybody's building a new

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search engine.

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They have to share search engine details, but

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that's old tech.

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That's relevant five years ago, it's not necessarily

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as relevant today.

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The judge talked about that in his decision,

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how some of these companies in the last

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20 years didn't exist or the format, they

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didn't exist, and it's very difficult for the

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courts to handle a case like this.

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And we have to remember, this is a

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district court case, so it's certainly relevant to

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the facts of this case, but it doesn't

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hold any precedential value.

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It's not a Supreme Court case, it's not

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an appellate court case.

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Although there's some dicta, there's some language in

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there about how companies should behave, every situation

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is different, so who knows what happens.

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What's interesting is Google's probably still going to

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appeal.

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The Department of Justice is holding this up

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as a victory and the market doesn't think

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it's a victory for the Department of Justice.

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And Google's going to appeal and that's going

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to stretch out for another few years.

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So they're going to be able to continue

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to have search without sharing any data and

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still continue to monetize search for years before

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there's any kind of negative influence.

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And then by then, it could be moved.

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I think what's important is their ability to

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distribute Gemini, which I think was giving some

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landing gear here in this ruling, which is

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probably the most important thing.

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Very interesting.

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And so for investors, I guess that's encouraging

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for Google, encouraging for Apple, anyone who has

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an index fund has plenty of both, alphabet.

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Yeah.

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I guess the question is, who's the little

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guy that's being undermined in the process that

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people are using their search engine that they'd

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benefit from getting some of this data that

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presumably Google might have to share in time?

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Well, I think the big one would be

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Microsoft, right?

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They would have to share their algorithmic data

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with Bing.

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So if you own a mega cap growth

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ETF and maybe Google's slightly negatively hurt and

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Microsoft benefits, you're going to be fine in

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the aggregate, right?

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Does anyone, I've heard of this thing, I

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don't know, it's like a duck or something.

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What's that?

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It's like a- Duck, duck, go.

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Duck, duck, go.

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Right.

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I wonder if there's a lot of users

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for that.

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But I mean, I understand it essentially gets

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rid of that tracking your data type perspective.

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I mean, Google has an 89% market

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share in search, 89%.

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And they only recently fell under 90 for

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the first time since like 2002 or something

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like that.

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So they've been very, very dominant in the

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market for a long, long time.

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So I probably shouldn't be using Ask Jeeves

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anymore.

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You can if you want to, Chris.

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I do remember that one.

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That was very, you know, it just goes

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to show- Ultra Vista, wasn't that another

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one?

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Yeah.

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The early creators are not always the dominant

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force.

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One more comment that I have on Google

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is the judge, you know, certainly talked about,

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and it's a relevant element of an antitrust

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in a breakup situation is, has the consumer

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been harmed?

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Yeah.

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And it's tough to make a case that

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the worldwide American, however you want to frame

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it, consumer has been harmed by Google's alleged

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monopoly.

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I mean- I mean, it's certainly not

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something that comes at a cost in terms

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of premium paid.

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I guess it's a question of how that

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data is used that should evaluate the cost

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or the harm, which is kind of hard

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to do.

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So that's an interesting point, Chris.

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On appeal, the argument that Google is going

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to make is that sharing this data would

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undermine the privacy of their users.

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And so the remedy would actually hurt the

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consumer, which I think is probably a pretty

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strong case.

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Yeah.

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If the whole point of antitrust is to

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protect the consumer, then, you know, this could

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arguably, arguably hurt them.

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So if you look at the consumer as

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the ad, advertiser though, right?

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Like the customers, I don't know if that

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would be a stretch, I would say then

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- No, I think you could, I think

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the need to look at that, not just

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beyond the retail consumer, right?

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The customer of Google is a business.

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Yeah.

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So they compete over AdWords and they bid

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on AdWords.

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And if they could do it across multiple

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different platforms on search, then you would think

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that maybe they could get a lower price.

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But I don't know.

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If they were manipulating the market, right?

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I mean, so the argument, counter argument is

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there's alternatives, there's Facebook, there's all these social

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media outlets.

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You could make the argument that they're the

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only ad exchange for search, right?

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So if there was one stock exchange, for

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example, the margins that they would get for

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exchanging stocks between traders could be much wider

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than it is if there's competition between exchanges.

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I think you could make a similar argument

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here or there.

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00:11:57,480 --> 00:11:59,340
But I think, I can't help but to

274
00:11:59,340 --> 00:12:03,180
think about comparing this case to the Microsoft

275
00:12:03,180 --> 00:12:07,880
case in, was it 95, 96?

276
00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:09,220
Okay.

277
00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:12,180
It might have finally been settled in 2001.

278
00:12:12,980 --> 00:12:15,740
So correct me if I'm wrong, if you

279
00:12:15,740 --> 00:12:17,980
guys remember this more clearly than I do,

280
00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:20,460
but I believe the argument was that they

281
00:12:20,460 --> 00:12:24,560
were preloading Internet Explorer into Windows, which was

282
00:12:24,560 --> 00:12:27,840
the dominant software operating system provider.

283
00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:30,600
Netscape was getting pushed out, or at least

284
00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:32,180
they felt like they were being pushed out.

285
00:12:33,740 --> 00:12:35,580
And why is this similar?

286
00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:39,660
Well, these exclusive contracts that they can distribute,

287
00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:47,040
their search product isn't too dissimilar to Internet

288
00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:50,860
Explorer being preloaded into a dominant software operating

289
00:12:50,860 --> 00:12:51,680
system provider.

290
00:12:52,580 --> 00:12:53,540
I think that's right.

291
00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:56,400
The case is very similar.

292
00:12:57,240 --> 00:12:57,340
Yeah.

293
00:12:57,600 --> 00:13:00,160
Now, if you think about what happened with

294
00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:05,860
Microsoft between 2001 and today, they're all right.

295
00:13:06,780 --> 00:13:08,600
And once again, no breakup.

296
00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:13,420
The court did not, as we know, order

297
00:13:13,420 --> 00:13:15,620
a breakup of Microsoft.

298
00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:19,180
They encouraged or mandated behavioral changes, as that

299
00:13:19,180 --> 00:13:19,760
court said.

300
00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:24,020
And Windows is still dominant too, right?

301
00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:25,120
Windows is still dominant.

302
00:13:25,700 --> 00:13:25,980
No doubt.

303
00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:28,760
And that's still the bulk of how they

304
00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:32,060
make a lot of their money, excluding Azure,

305
00:13:32,220 --> 00:13:32,420
I guess.

306
00:13:32,620 --> 00:13:37,200
But the enterprise productivity services is still the

307
00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:38,160
bulk of Windows.

308
00:13:39,580 --> 00:13:42,660
It didn't stop their really monopolistic power, I

309
00:13:42,660 --> 00:13:43,400
guess is what I'm saying.

310
00:13:43,780 --> 00:13:47,940
And that case was before some of this

311
00:13:47,940 --> 00:13:49,940
technology, in the early stages of where we

312
00:13:49,940 --> 00:13:51,900
are in technology, but it is consistent.

313
00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:55,380
And this court noted that, that the trend

314
00:13:55,380 --> 00:13:57,560
is not to break up these companies, but

315
00:13:57,560 --> 00:14:02,360
to attempt to have them have behavioral changes.

316
00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:05,240
So, maybe the days of breaking up standard

317
00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:06,840
oil don't exist anymore.

318
00:14:07,660 --> 00:14:09,240
Or AT&T.

319
00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:11,240
Or AT&T, the more contemporary.

320
00:14:11,780 --> 00:14:11,880
Yeah.

321
00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:12,800
All right.

322
00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:13,880
Let's...

323
00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:14,280
Oh, sorry.

324
00:14:14,380 --> 00:14:16,060
You got one other thing to say there,

325
00:14:16,340 --> 00:14:16,600
Brian?

326
00:14:17,980 --> 00:14:18,500
Yeah.

327
00:14:18,580 --> 00:14:20,060
Obviously, I have a lot to say on

328
00:14:20,060 --> 00:14:20,440
this subject.

329
00:14:20,580 --> 00:14:21,560
I think it's very interesting.

330
00:14:23,820 --> 00:14:26,640
But we talked about all the new competition

331
00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:28,900
in the market, and there's this big push

332
00:14:28,900 --> 00:14:30,780
for private investments lately.

333
00:14:31,420 --> 00:14:33,000
And while I was thinking about this topic,

334
00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:36,880
I couldn't help but to think, people get

335
00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:38,760
the sense or feel like they can't get

336
00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:41,920
into these large language models providers because they're

337
00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:42,300
private.

338
00:14:43,780 --> 00:14:46,100
And I can't help but think, but that's

339
00:14:46,100 --> 00:14:46,840
not really true.

340
00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:51,320
Microsoft owns a significant portion of OpenAI.

341
00:14:51,780 --> 00:14:56,420
It's under negotiation how much they're going to

342
00:14:56,420 --> 00:14:58,740
own, because they're going to change their structure

343
00:14:58,740 --> 00:14:59,940
from nonprofit to profit.

344
00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:02,640
But if you own Microsoft, you own a

345
00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:04,660
substantial amount of OpenAI.

346
00:15:05,700 --> 00:15:10,880
If you own Amazon, you own a significant

347
00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:12,080
portion of Anthropic.

348
00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:16,700
So if you do want access to these

349
00:15:16,700 --> 00:15:18,410
things, I guess this is...

350
00:15:20,060 --> 00:15:23,860
I think this case illustrates how the rich

351
00:15:23,860 --> 00:15:25,180
are going to continue to get richer.

352
00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:28,760
And this kind of opens up some avenues

353
00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:34,040
for these companies with large moats and large

354
00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:37,580
pockets to actually continue to create large moats

355
00:15:37,580 --> 00:15:39,040
and large pockets for the future.

356
00:15:39,260 --> 00:15:42,360
So I think in general, these companies that

357
00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:45,580
had a ton of power and were investing

358
00:15:45,580 --> 00:15:48,660
into the future are going to be able

359
00:15:48,660 --> 00:15:51,320
to continue to do that under this ruling,

360
00:15:51,740 --> 00:15:53,800
or given more license to do that under

361
00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:54,240
this ruling.

362
00:15:55,740 --> 00:15:56,380
I agree with that.

363
00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:57,120
All right.

364
00:15:57,420 --> 00:16:00,820
In the theme of in the news, we

365
00:16:00,820 --> 00:16:02,720
were also interested in talking a little bit

366
00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:10,260
about some technological developments and some application of

367
00:16:10,260 --> 00:16:13,700
that as it relates to evolving views relating

368
00:16:13,700 --> 00:16:21,200
to profitability derived from things like cryptocurrency or

369
00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:21,740
stablecoin.

370
00:16:22,140 --> 00:16:26,280
So let's talk about the recent legislation that

371
00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:31,480
provided some governance surrounding stablecoin, which is essentially

372
00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:36,400
a form of cryptocurrency, but tied to a

373
00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:38,520
dollar in, a dollar out, the idea that

374
00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:42,720
it's stable in terms of not speculative, not

375
00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:46,360
trying to make money from the growth of

376
00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:49,020
the value of the currency as much as

377
00:16:49,020 --> 00:16:54,580
providing continuity of the value of what you

378
00:16:54,580 --> 00:16:59,100
put your money into a given stablecoin.

379
00:16:59,900 --> 00:17:03,540
So essentially, Brian, let's start with what's the

380
00:17:03,540 --> 00:17:07,920
legislative backdrop that's evolved here?

381
00:17:09,180 --> 00:17:12,420
So I don't know all the details of

382
00:17:12,420 --> 00:17:13,680
the Genius Act, and I'm not going to

383
00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:15,240
pretend like I do, but one of the

384
00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:18,540
important stipulations is exactly what you just said,

385
00:17:18,579 --> 00:17:22,099
Chris, the regulation of stablecoin to make sure

386
00:17:22,099 --> 00:17:26,579
that it's backed by real tangible assets.

387
00:17:27,300 --> 00:17:29,040
So in this case- Or it was

388
00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:30,220
just a promise, right?

389
00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:32,800
It was like, I could buy your stablecoin

390
00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:34,540
and you could promise me that it'll be

391
00:17:34,540 --> 00:17:37,160
worth the same amount, but I didn't have

392
00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:40,300
any real, as an entity, there was no

393
00:17:40,300 --> 00:17:42,040
regulatory backdrop.

394
00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:46,720
You have to have treasuries or some mechanism

395
00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:51,080
to represent that value appropriately.

396
00:17:52,060 --> 00:17:52,160
Yeah.

397
00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:53,740
And some of them in the past weren't

398
00:17:53,740 --> 00:17:56,180
backed by much of anything of real value.

399
00:17:56,420 --> 00:17:58,760
So this is a significant change.

400
00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:02,000
This is going to make transacting in stablecoins

401
00:18:03,100 --> 00:18:05,120
much more reasonable to do.

402
00:18:05,420 --> 00:18:08,580
So if you are one of these people

403
00:18:08,580 --> 00:18:12,660
that believes that we're going to be able

404
00:18:12,660 --> 00:18:15,200
to do cross-border transactions over stablecoin and

405
00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:17,920
it'll be more efficient than doing a Western

406
00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:20,400
Union or a wire or an ACH or

407
00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:24,200
something like that, it'll be more efficient, it'll

408
00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:25,200
be cheaper, it'll be faster.

409
00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:27,660
If you're somebody that believes that, this is

410
00:18:27,660 --> 00:18:27,980
great.

411
00:18:28,500 --> 00:18:31,400
Stablecoins make this a much more trusted, much

412
00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:32,700
more rational way to do it.

413
00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:34,940
If you were to do it with Bitcoin,

414
00:18:35,060 --> 00:18:36,880
for example, you don't know what the value

415
00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:38,700
is going to be from one day to

416
00:18:38,700 --> 00:18:39,000
another.

417
00:18:39,260 --> 00:18:41,480
It could change pretty dramatically.

418
00:18:41,620 --> 00:18:42,740
But with a stablecoin, you know you're going

419
00:18:42,740 --> 00:18:43,600
to get dollar for dollar.

420
00:18:44,740 --> 00:18:46,800
So this opens up all sorts of shadow

421
00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:50,640
banking activity, all sorts of smart contract activity

422
00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:53,100
that could be executed on the blockchain, where

423
00:18:53,100 --> 00:18:55,740
if the belief is that it's more secure

424
00:18:55,740 --> 00:18:59,220
and it's more efficient, that it could drive

425
00:18:59,220 --> 00:19:00,840
a lot of new activity.

426
00:19:01,420 --> 00:19:03,160
I want you to continue on.

427
00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:05,160
I just want to put a caveat for

428
00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:07,780
those listening who might be interested in our

429
00:19:07,780 --> 00:19:12,160
views on how this stablecoin applies to our

430
00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:13,940
clientele at this point in time.

431
00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:18,360
And I would want to make the clarification

432
00:19:18,360 --> 00:19:21,220
or be clear, this is not something we're

433
00:19:21,220 --> 00:19:22,780
advocating for our clients.

434
00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:25,160
It's not something we utilize in our portfolio

435
00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:25,740
management.

436
00:19:26,100 --> 00:19:29,540
It's not to say that someday there might

437
00:19:29,540 --> 00:19:30,620
not be a place for it.

438
00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:33,640
It's just right now, I think we could

439
00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:38,340
easily argue we prefer a centralized finance, something

440
00:19:38,340 --> 00:19:41,540
that the central bank has the ability to

441
00:19:41,540 --> 00:19:47,060
step in and offer stabilizing characteristics directly with

442
00:19:47,060 --> 00:19:47,740
the banks.

443
00:19:48,540 --> 00:19:51,920
And so we would maybe be inclined to

444
00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:55,920
make use of treasuries, money market funds, and

445
00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:58,040
bank accounts.

446
00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:04,140
But we're not using necessarily stablecoin as a

447
00:20:04,140 --> 00:20:08,440
way to offer people an investment vehicle, which

448
00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:11,680
is different from saying, hey, this has evolved

449
00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:15,280
into something that has less risk than what

450
00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:16,200
it once had.

451
00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:18,000
Okay.

452
00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:20,320
And you wanted to go on to talk

453
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:22,020
about this in the point of view that

454
00:20:23,060 --> 00:20:24,560
how some of this could apply.

455
00:20:24,660 --> 00:20:27,060
You were talking about smart contracts and things

456
00:20:27,060 --> 00:20:27,640
of that sort.

457
00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:28,920
Yeah.

458
00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:32,460
I co-signed everything you said, but I

459
00:20:32,460 --> 00:20:36,200
think it's interesting that this is evolving into

460
00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:38,260
some more practical use and the Genius Act

461
00:20:38,260 --> 00:20:40,460
is certainly helping that along.

462
00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:46,080
And I think it's important as me personally,

463
00:20:46,300 --> 00:20:48,140
I've been a crypto skeptic, but that doesn't

464
00:20:48,140 --> 00:20:49,540
mean you put your head in the sand.

465
00:20:49,860 --> 00:20:52,240
I mean, if something changes, something evolves, you

466
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:53,680
got to change your mind with the facts.

467
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:55,920
And I think that's maybe an important distinction

468
00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:57,700
between what I'm saying now and what I've

469
00:20:57,700 --> 00:20:58,320
said in the past.

470
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,680
So back to stablecoins, if you could transact

471
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:05,380
here, if the government's Genius Act is going

472
00:21:05,380 --> 00:21:06,740
to make it more likely that you're going

473
00:21:06,740 --> 00:21:08,840
to transact, the idea is that the market

474
00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:11,340
of trading in stablecoins will get much bigger.

475
00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:14,140
Stablecoins are at least the two biggest ones

476
00:21:14,140 --> 00:21:16,160
from my understanding trade on the Ethereum network.

477
00:21:16,340 --> 00:21:17,300
Now this was news to me.

478
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:18,920
I did not know that anything other than

479
00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:21,420
Ethereum could trade on the Ethereum network.

480
00:21:22,180 --> 00:21:24,960
And on the Ethereum network, there are validators.

481
00:21:25,380 --> 00:21:28,940
Validators are people who get paid transaction fees.

482
00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:31,660
They're often coined in the industry as gas

483
00:21:31,660 --> 00:21:34,180
fees, but they're really a transaction fee to

484
00:21:34,180 --> 00:21:38,820
validate whether the transaction on the network follows

485
00:21:38,820 --> 00:21:40,480
along the terms of the smart contract.

486
00:21:40,820 --> 00:21:43,080
And these fees can be anywhere between 3

487
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,840
% and 7%, depending on the changes.

488
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:48,100
So what we're seeing here from these validators

489
00:21:48,100 --> 00:21:52,800
is real transactions and real cash flows coming

490
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:56,700
from something that was formerly viewed as just

491
00:21:56,700 --> 00:21:57,580
a speculative asset.

492
00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:01,120
Now we're actually having real transactions, practical value

493
00:22:01,120 --> 00:22:02,720
and cash flows from real companies.

494
00:22:02,980 --> 00:22:04,640
You can almost think of this as a

495
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,120
combination between MicroStrategy and Visa.

496
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:11,040
They hold the underlying asset, but they're also

497
00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:15,100
executing the secure transaction for a fee.

498
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:17,580
And as we know with Visa, it can

499
00:22:17,580 --> 00:22:19,240
be very, very lucrative to be in the

500
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:20,160
middle of those transactions.

501
00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:26,160
So the point here is, as much as

502
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:31,960
we have been and would argue that cryptocurrency

503
00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:39,280
generally is a speculative endeavor for our clientele

504
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:43,900
who tend to be retirees, largely not appropriate

505
00:22:43,900 --> 00:22:46,640
as something they would want to participate in,

506
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:49,640
your point here is to say, hey, look

507
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:50,180
at this.

508
00:22:50,340 --> 00:22:52,140
We've looked at cryptocurrency in the past and

509
00:22:52,140 --> 00:22:55,980
said, no interest, not interested, thanks anyway, because

510
00:22:55,980 --> 00:22:58,440
I can't point to anything that has a

511
00:22:58,440 --> 00:22:59,220
valuation.

512
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:03,700
Now you're saying there are some examples of

513
00:23:03,700 --> 00:23:06,980
companies that may be behind the stable coin

514
00:23:06,980 --> 00:23:13,220
and the transaction going on between parties that

515
00:23:13,220 --> 00:23:17,360
can create a revenue source, an opportunity for

516
00:23:17,360 --> 00:23:21,380
a company to have profitability so that that

517
00:23:21,380 --> 00:23:25,480
could have some interest potentially for an investor

518
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:27,460
that you could point to and say, oh,

519
00:23:27,460 --> 00:23:28,660
that's more interesting to me.

520
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:31,020
Yeah, I'll give you two examples too.

521
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:32,960
So Circle is a company that recently went

522
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:33,320
public.

523
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:36,300
Circle is a stable coin issuer.

524
00:23:36,740 --> 00:23:38,620
So basically they'll issue stable coins and they'll

525
00:23:38,620 --> 00:23:40,000
hold treasuries on their balance sheet.

526
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:42,680
They will get the 4% from the

527
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:43,120
treasuries.

528
00:23:43,700 --> 00:23:45,640
The stable coin pays no interest, but it

529
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:49,840
allows for a token that can be exchanged

530
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:50,560
dollar for dollar.

531
00:23:51,500 --> 00:23:52,680
So what's their cash flow?

532
00:23:52,780 --> 00:23:54,580
Their cash flow is going to be the

533
00:23:54,580 --> 00:23:56,080
interest from the treasury security.

534
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:58,800
And the larger and larger the network gets,

535
00:23:59,380 --> 00:24:01,120
the more and more they're going to be

536
00:24:01,120 --> 00:24:03,780
able to leverage that treasury asset.

537
00:24:04,860 --> 00:24:07,180
And you can imagine 4% is not

538
00:24:07,180 --> 00:24:09,760
a huge amount of money, but if you

539
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,920
grow your balance sheet big enough, it could

540
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:13,320
be a significant cash flow.

541
00:24:14,140 --> 00:24:15,960
If you put a little leverage underneath it,

542
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:18,280
sky's the limit, right?

543
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:21,760
Your return on invested capital could be very

544
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:27,040
large, not dissimilar to how some banks work.

545
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,040
Another example is Bitmine Immersion, which I've learned

546
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:31,580
more about recently.

547
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:36,980
This doesn't seem to have the documents that

548
00:24:36,980 --> 00:24:38,800
you would like to see yet from the

549
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:39,060
SEC.

550
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:41,000
So buyer beware there.

551
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,940
And I'm not suggesting anybody for the viewers

552
00:24:44,940 --> 00:24:46,420
that should go out and buy this.

553
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:48,520
You should do your own due diligence for

554
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:49,340
compliance purposes.

555
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:51,460
But what I think is interesting is what

556
00:24:51,460 --> 00:24:53,120
they're doing is they want to get in

557
00:24:53,120 --> 00:24:55,660
the middle of that transaction, that stable coin

558
00:24:55,660 --> 00:24:59,120
Ethereum transaction and collect the staking fee or

559
00:24:59,120 --> 00:25:01,380
the validator fee of that 3% to

560
00:25:01,380 --> 00:25:02,060
7%.

561
00:25:02,060 --> 00:25:05,780
So there's some real businesses here that are

562
00:25:05,780 --> 00:25:07,380
going to have real cash flows that I'm

563
00:25:07,380 --> 00:25:11,140
finding to be more interesting than I did

564
00:25:11,140 --> 00:25:12,980
before the Genius Act.

565
00:25:13,500 --> 00:25:15,920
This reminds me a little bit about 15

566
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,020
minutes ago when we were talking about the

567
00:25:18,020 --> 00:25:20,280
Google and where all that got started and

568
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:22,400
some of the companies that appeared to have

569
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:26,960
a strong place, whether that be AOL or

570
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:30,840
Netscape or the list of the dead companies

571
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:32,760
along the side of the road, who appeared

572
00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:35,400
to be the leaders in this new technology

573
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:39,660
called the internet and web search, they're not

574
00:25:39,660 --> 00:25:41,380
always the ones that win in the end.

575
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:45,720
So I know we said this is less

576
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:48,100
speculation, but it is certainly, in my mind

577
00:25:48,100 --> 00:25:52,540
anyway, clearly in the speculation category and buyer

578
00:25:52,540 --> 00:25:53,760
beware, as Brian said.

579
00:25:54,780 --> 00:25:58,500
I think whenever there's an emerging business model,

580
00:25:59,180 --> 00:26:02,420
a good amount of skepticism is warranted, right?

581
00:26:03,420 --> 00:26:05,520
I would consider it circled just one public,

582
00:26:05,660 --> 00:26:06,580
maybe a month ago.

583
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:13,980
It's worth mentioning too, just for a compliance

584
00:26:13,980 --> 00:26:17,400
note, that mention of specific stocks is not

585
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,700
a recommendation or an offer.

586
00:26:20,360 --> 00:26:23,000
Individual investors should do their own due diligence

587
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:26,680
to determine appropriateness for their own circumstances and

588
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:29,820
your best to consult your financial advisor in

589
00:26:29,820 --> 00:26:30,460
the process.

590
00:26:32,120 --> 00:26:34,920
When we're talking about some of these names,

591
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:37,720
I want to keep that perspective here that

592
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:40,220
what we're talking about is not intended to

593
00:26:40,220 --> 00:26:42,260
be any kind of a recommendation, just making

594
00:26:42,260 --> 00:26:44,180
a point that things are evolving.

595
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:47,620
What we once said was, Hey, no way,

596
00:26:47,700 --> 00:26:48,160
no how.

597
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:50,880
Now Brian's saying, Hey, look at this.

598
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:52,860
There's some earnings coming out of a company

599
00:26:52,860 --> 00:26:55,520
that we can point to that can change

600
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:58,740
the way we think about something as having

601
00:26:58,740 --> 00:27:01,720
appeal or not potentially, but we'll see.

602
00:27:02,060 --> 00:27:02,420
We'll see.

603
00:27:03,100 --> 00:27:05,560
So anything to add there?

604
00:27:05,660 --> 00:27:07,360
Should we move on to other items in

605
00:27:07,360 --> 00:27:07,840
the news?

606
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:10,520
Let's move on.

607
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:12,100
All right, here we go.

608
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:14,420
So I was on vacation and by the

609
00:27:14,420 --> 00:27:16,620
way, took the kids out to Boston.

610
00:27:16,860 --> 00:27:18,500
Two of our kids live in Boston.

611
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:20,100
We went to Porto.

612
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:21,200
You ever been there, Brian?

613
00:27:22,140 --> 00:27:24,960
Porto and down in Prudential Center.

614
00:27:25,620 --> 00:27:26,000
Excellent.

615
00:27:26,180 --> 00:27:26,720
Had a great time.

616
00:27:27,340 --> 00:27:29,860
Got a chance to go to Provincetown while

617
00:27:29,860 --> 00:27:33,640
I was on vacation and enjoyed that and

618
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:35,640
took a sail around the point of the

619
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:37,740
case, that sunset sail.

620
00:27:38,020 --> 00:27:38,700
Fabulous, right?

621
00:27:38,700 --> 00:27:41,000
So I also was watching what was going

622
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:42,780
on in the news and I'd started writing

623
00:27:42,780 --> 00:27:44,260
some of these things down over the last

624
00:27:44,260 --> 00:27:44,960
couple of weeks.

625
00:27:45,100 --> 00:27:46,540
You really shouldn't do that on vacation.

626
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:48,260
Yeah, probably not a good idea.

627
00:27:49,140 --> 00:27:53,480
And I started getting kind of surprised by

628
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:55,520
all these examples of what I would think

629
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,780
of as government overreach and not typically characteristic

630
00:27:58,780 --> 00:28:06,420
with my ideological evolution, you know, how I

631
00:28:06,420 --> 00:28:07,900
think of the role of government.

632
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:12,720
So we saw more and more talk of

633
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:16,980
the president wanting to send National Guard troops

634
00:28:16,980 --> 00:28:21,480
into cities across the country and the idea

635
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:25,540
of even whether that's legal, right?

636
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:29,180
We've had some judge ruling that this violated

637
00:28:29,180 --> 00:28:33,700
when in Los Angeles, the Posse Comitatus.

638
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:34,820
Is that the right way to say that?

639
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:35,540
That's exactly right.

640
00:28:35,740 --> 00:28:38,180
Late 1800s statute that says you can't use

641
00:28:38,180 --> 00:28:40,960
the military for law enforcement purposes in the

642
00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:41,640
United States.

643
00:28:42,460 --> 00:28:47,140
I saw the government is buying shares of

644
00:28:47,140 --> 00:28:47,520
Intel.

645
00:28:48,260 --> 00:28:50,020
No, no, they're not buying.

646
00:28:50,380 --> 00:28:51,320
They're extorting.

647
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:53,760
They're extorting shares of Intel.

648
00:28:54,500 --> 00:28:57,960
Normally you'd think of this because they're socialization

649
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:00,660
of a company or something.

650
00:29:02,020 --> 00:29:03,340
Seems odd to me.

651
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:06,680
Seems like inconsistent with the kind of thing

652
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:09,920
that a Republican would want to do.

653
00:29:10,060 --> 00:29:13,080
The idea that, I don't know, Solyndra came

654
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:14,420
to my mind, but the idea of picking

655
00:29:14,420 --> 00:29:15,480
winners and losers.

656
00:29:16,660 --> 00:29:20,460
I realize we have the CHIPS Act and

657
00:29:20,460 --> 00:29:22,760
maybe there's an effort to say, oh, let's

658
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:25,460
just not give this infrastructure away.

659
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:27,860
But I don't know, it just doesn't resonate

660
00:29:27,860 --> 00:29:29,580
with me with the free market principles.

661
00:29:30,260 --> 00:29:35,600
We saw John Bolton, Ambassador John Bolton's house,

662
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:39,260
raided by government officials shortly after.

663
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:42,120
Bolton's known to be a critic of the

664
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:42,480
president.

665
00:29:43,540 --> 00:29:46,920
He's a former Trump administration in the prior

666
00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:54,420
administration, a national security advisor, but it seems

667
00:29:54,420 --> 00:29:55,320
like a retribution.

668
00:29:55,700 --> 00:29:56,880
We have to be one of the themes

669
00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:58,020
the president ran on.

670
00:29:58,420 --> 00:30:02,220
It seems like a kind of inappropriate extension

671
00:30:02,220 --> 00:30:03,020
of power.

672
00:30:03,540 --> 00:30:05,120
Perhaps, perhaps time will tell.

673
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:06,780
Yeah, I think that's fair.

674
00:30:06,940 --> 00:30:09,000
That one may be, is there something inappropriate

675
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:09,640
going on there?

676
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:13,880
But optics sure are questionable.

677
00:30:14,220 --> 00:30:15,380
Optics are questionable, yeah.

678
00:30:15,380 --> 00:30:18,800
Put into that, we saw the president continuing

679
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:22,880
to try to, or actually fire, Fed Governor

680
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:23,800
Lisa Cook.

681
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:29,620
She's suing to question whether that's legal, but

682
00:30:29,620 --> 00:30:32,520
in an effort to pack the Fed with

683
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:35,340
people who will do his bidding to reduce

684
00:30:35,340 --> 00:30:36,260
the interest rates.

685
00:30:38,180 --> 00:30:40,200
I think you could add to that.

686
00:30:40,460 --> 00:30:46,460
We saw recently the Bureau of Labor Statistics

687
00:30:46,460 --> 00:30:50,160
had, what, a CPI report last week.

688
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:51,900
That was the BLS.

689
00:30:52,020 --> 00:30:54,860
But we saw a CPI where inflation was,

690
00:30:55,060 --> 00:30:56,940
what, at an annual rate of around 2

691
00:30:56,940 --> 00:30:59,860
.7%. And then we saw jobs a couple

692
00:30:59,860 --> 00:31:05,480
of weeks ago with 118,000 revision over

693
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:09,820
the year, and new jobs about 73,000.

694
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:13,500
And the administration didn't really like the report

695
00:31:13,500 --> 00:31:16,160
and fired the BLS commissioner.

696
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:21,100
Just see a lot of things that are

697
00:31:21,100 --> 00:31:25,540
kind of, what's going on here with, struck

698
00:31:25,540 --> 00:31:30,040
me as somewhat an extent of, I would

699
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:33,280
argue, some government overreach, not in keeping with

700
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:36,220
the typical kind of role we tend to

701
00:31:36,220 --> 00:31:39,800
think of for Republicans as saying, smaller government,

702
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:44,660
federal government, closer to the people for the

703
00:31:44,660 --> 00:31:45,420
implementation.

704
00:31:45,700 --> 00:31:48,660
So state governments, city governments, and so forth.

705
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:50,760
I don't know.

706
00:31:50,940 --> 00:31:53,340
I dumped a lot of my frustration out

707
00:31:53,340 --> 00:31:55,920
there, but anybody have something to add to

708
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:56,160
that?

709
00:31:57,900 --> 00:31:58,440
Well, certainly.

710
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,360
And I think this period of this Trump

711
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:04,600
second term is going to be viewed as,

712
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:09,900
from a constitutional perspective, as a clear period

713
00:32:09,900 --> 00:32:14,880
when the power of the president is determined,

714
00:32:15,140 --> 00:32:15,360
right?

715
00:32:15,420 --> 00:32:16,820
All these, I mean, there's a lot of

716
00:32:16,820 --> 00:32:17,580
things here, right?

717
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:19,300
And most of them have to do with

718
00:32:19,300 --> 00:32:20,380
the president's power.

719
00:32:20,940 --> 00:32:24,600
And you didn't even mention tariffs, the decision

720
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:25,380
on tariffs.

721
00:32:25,700 --> 00:32:28,700
So just to throw- Executive orders we

722
00:32:28,700 --> 00:32:31,180
could point to in abundance, right?

723
00:32:32,540 --> 00:32:36,280
Appropriateness, applicability, lawfulness, and so forth.

724
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:36,860
Yeah.

725
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:39,620
So I think all of these things and

726
00:32:39,620 --> 00:32:42,680
more are all going to be tested through

727
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:43,200
the courts.

728
00:32:43,860 --> 00:32:48,500
And thankfully, we have three branches of government,

729
00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:50,060
independent branches of government.

730
00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:54,860
And thus far, the courts seem willing, totally

731
00:32:54,860 --> 00:32:57,460
willing to push back on some of these

732
00:32:57,460 --> 00:32:57,840
things.

733
00:32:58,340 --> 00:33:01,620
But foundationally, these things that we hold dear,

734
00:33:01,780 --> 00:33:04,760
this is not my Republican party, so I'm

735
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:05,960
not defending the party.

736
00:33:06,220 --> 00:33:09,640
Parties change, and leaders of parties change.

737
00:33:09,900 --> 00:33:12,260
And we could talk about the crazy left

738
00:33:12,260 --> 00:33:12,580
too.

739
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:16,300
But constitutionally, which is more important than any

740
00:33:16,300 --> 00:33:19,620
political party, I think this term is going

741
00:33:19,620 --> 00:33:22,620
to be remembered in history when the power

742
00:33:22,620 --> 00:33:25,400
of the presidency was clearly put in check

743
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:28,200
because of many of these actions and probably

744
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:29,080
more to come.

745
00:33:29,580 --> 00:33:34,220
So that's a needed thing in our constitutional

746
00:33:34,220 --> 00:33:38,860
democracy, republic, that when one branch of government

747
00:33:38,860 --> 00:33:41,260
goes outside the lines, so to speak, it

748
00:33:41,260 --> 00:33:43,680
is brought back in by the other branches

749
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:44,340
of government.

750
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:49,060
And so while it doesn't feel healthy at

751
00:33:49,060 --> 00:33:51,320
the time, feels a little scary sometimes for

752
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:55,360
people who cherish due process and individual rights

753
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:58,940
and a smaller government, I think ultimately it

754
00:33:58,940 --> 00:34:01,180
will make our country stronger that we have

755
00:34:01,180 --> 00:34:04,580
the ability to and the will to restrain

756
00:34:04,580 --> 00:34:08,340
a branch of government that is operating outside

757
00:34:08,340 --> 00:34:09,179
the constitution.

758
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:12,880
I hope we do see that.

759
00:34:13,020 --> 00:34:15,400
I hope we do see some restraint.

760
00:34:15,639 --> 00:34:17,260
I think that's a great way to frame

761
00:34:17,260 --> 00:34:17,480
it.

762
00:34:19,100 --> 00:34:25,880
I think that it's no doubt that we

763
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:27,480
face various challenges.

764
00:34:28,340 --> 00:34:30,500
You can point to all these various topics

765
00:34:30,500 --> 00:34:34,179
and say, identify issues that have challenge.

766
00:34:35,179 --> 00:34:42,239
But I don't see Congress providing the kind

767
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:46,679
of oversight I would expect when the executive

768
00:34:46,679 --> 00:34:50,880
branch seems to be overreaching.

769
00:34:52,580 --> 00:34:54,159
I think we can point to some of

770
00:34:54,159 --> 00:34:55,139
these kind of instances.

771
00:34:55,980 --> 00:34:57,500
Well, I think one of the examples of

772
00:34:57,500 --> 00:34:59,420
when this is going to be tested, not

773
00:34:59,420 --> 00:35:00,820
the court part of it, which was going

774
00:35:00,820 --> 00:35:02,420
to be tested for the entire four years,

775
00:35:02,540 --> 00:35:05,520
but if the tariff decision holds that President

776
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:08,500
Trump exceeded his authority in these broad-based

777
00:35:08,500 --> 00:35:09,540
tariffs, blah, blah, blah.

778
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:10,520
Yeah, it looks like.

779
00:35:10,580 --> 00:35:12,700
Oh, yeah, that was another court.

780
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:16,580
Yes, they will kick it back to Congress.

781
00:35:16,900 --> 00:35:17,880
The court will kick it back.

782
00:35:18,100 --> 00:35:20,960
They will overtly mention in their decision that

783
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:23,180
this is a congressional authority and leave it

784
00:35:23,180 --> 00:35:25,280
for Congress to act and probably give Congress,

785
00:35:25,460 --> 00:35:27,480
if you're looking at other cases, a period

786
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:28,000
of time.

787
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:29,400
Mm-hmm.

788
00:35:29,420 --> 00:35:33,420
And that's when we'll see if the Republicans

789
00:35:33,420 --> 00:35:36,440
in charge are willing to go along with

790
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:38,840
giving their authority because that's what they're doing.

791
00:35:38,860 --> 00:35:40,780
Retaining that authority or giving that authority.

792
00:35:40,860 --> 00:35:41,320
That's right.

793
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:42,340
That's right.

794
00:35:42,540 --> 00:35:46,640
And that's a different analysis than letting Congress

795
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:49,260
doesn't have a role to stop an executive

796
00:35:49,260 --> 00:35:50,280
from doing something.

797
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:51,680
They don't have a role there other than

798
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:52,100
impeachment.

799
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:55,480
That's the purview of the courts.

800
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:57,320
But if they have to overtly do something

801
00:35:57,320 --> 00:35:59,360
and say, we are willing to give up

802
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:03,780
our Article 1 powers to an Article 2

803
00:36:03,780 --> 00:36:04,320
president.

804
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:05,280
Yeah.

805
00:36:05,380 --> 00:36:06,480
That's a different analysis.

806
00:36:06,700 --> 00:36:08,000
And I think the- There are some

807
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:11,000
oversight involvements on various things.

808
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:14,460
I don't know how this fits into Congress,

809
00:36:14,700 --> 00:36:19,880
but when abundance of the leaders of the

810
00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:25,660
CDC basically walk out, what's going on?

811
00:36:25,660 --> 00:36:28,020
That's an oversight function, but it's not a

812
00:36:28,020 --> 00:36:31,520
power that Congress has to change that particular

813
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:31,980
thing.

814
00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:37,980
But if tariffs, for example, is an Article

815
00:36:37,980 --> 00:36:41,700
1 power of Congress, the president is exercising

816
00:36:41,700 --> 00:36:44,100
them on some pre-delegated powers that the

817
00:36:44,100 --> 00:36:45,820
court has said that he exceeded.

818
00:36:46,380 --> 00:36:48,240
If it comes back to Congress to have

819
00:36:48,240 --> 00:36:51,380
to overtly do something, I expect that you'll

820
00:36:51,380 --> 00:36:53,300
see a number of Republicans who are still

821
00:36:53,300 --> 00:36:56,640
there, still conservative, and say, no, I'm not

822
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:57,320
willing to give.

823
00:36:57,620 --> 00:36:58,780
And you have to look at this, even

824
00:36:58,780 --> 00:37:00,800
if you're a pro-Trump person, a MAGA

825
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:02,960
person, you have to look at this, not

826
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:04,400
in the context of the tariffs.

827
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:06,800
You have to look at it like, if

828
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:12,540
there's a strongly left liberal president, do you

829
00:37:12,540 --> 00:37:14,820
want that person to have these same powers

830
00:37:15,380 --> 00:37:16,100
and authority?

831
00:37:16,380 --> 00:37:17,720
You can't look at it like, oh, I

832
00:37:17,720 --> 00:37:18,840
like what this is doing.

833
00:37:18,980 --> 00:37:19,820
I like my president.

834
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:20,400
Yes, exactly.

835
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:21,400
You have to look at it like-

836
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:22,800
The office, not the individual, right?

837
00:37:22,940 --> 00:37:23,100
Yeah.

838
00:37:23,100 --> 00:37:24,800
Do you want the president to have the

839
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:27,360
unilateral authority to do these things?

840
00:37:27,860 --> 00:37:28,020
Right?

841
00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:28,880
Right.

842
00:37:29,220 --> 00:37:31,520
And I don't, frankly.

843
00:37:31,780 --> 00:37:32,440
I'm not concerned.

844
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:35,720
Our founders created Congress first, Article 1.

845
00:37:35,860 --> 00:37:39,240
They intended that the elected representatives across the

846
00:37:39,240 --> 00:37:42,340
country would be the predominant party, the predominant

847
00:37:42,340 --> 00:37:45,160
branch of government for a good reason.

848
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:49,020
Yeah, again, closer to the people in many

849
00:37:49,020 --> 00:37:49,340
respects.

850
00:37:49,340 --> 00:37:52,600
They were so concerned about it, they specifically

851
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:54,940
delegated the powers in Article 1.

852
00:37:57,890 --> 00:38:00,130
Well, I know we're going long, and I

853
00:38:00,130 --> 00:38:02,330
went down the rabbit hole there with a

854
00:38:02,330 --> 00:38:05,030
slew of things to drop on everybody.

855
00:38:05,210 --> 00:38:07,270
But there were a couple other quick things,

856
00:38:07,330 --> 00:38:07,910
I will say.

857
00:38:08,070 --> 00:38:11,530
One of them was the Fed chair, Jackson

858
00:38:11,530 --> 00:38:11,910
Hole.

859
00:38:12,530 --> 00:38:18,550
The market reacted to his comments, expecting the

860
00:38:18,550 --> 00:38:24,250
possibility of an interest rate drop, decline.

861
00:38:25,650 --> 00:38:27,570
Brian, I think we were talking, and you

862
00:38:27,570 --> 00:38:29,130
said, well, you never know, right?

863
00:38:29,410 --> 00:38:30,590
Things can change.

864
00:38:31,590 --> 00:38:33,690
But we'll see where that leads.

865
00:38:33,770 --> 00:38:38,110
Seems like markets have clearly expected that, right?

866
00:38:40,510 --> 00:38:42,310
Yeah, the market's expecting like a 100%

867
00:38:42,310 --> 00:38:44,070
chance of a cut here in September.

868
00:38:44,410 --> 00:38:46,470
But we're also going to get a jobs

869
00:38:46,470 --> 00:38:50,570
report following the firing of the head of

870
00:38:50,570 --> 00:38:57,930
the BLS, and that's likely going to be

871
00:38:57,930 --> 00:39:03,770
good, or very good, because the former one

872
00:39:03,770 --> 00:39:06,130
was fired because it was a disappointing jobs

873
00:39:06,130 --> 00:39:06,670
report.

874
00:39:07,630 --> 00:39:11,370
But Brian, if you're a Fed governor, if

875
00:39:11,370 --> 00:39:12,790
you're one of the people making this decision,

876
00:39:12,790 --> 00:39:15,010
and you have a great jobs report, doesn't

877
00:39:15,010 --> 00:39:16,830
that push you the other way?

878
00:39:16,950 --> 00:39:18,590
Like, we don't need to have a rate

879
00:39:18,590 --> 00:39:18,790
cut.

880
00:39:20,230 --> 00:39:22,050
Yeah, I mean, that was what would normally

881
00:39:22,050 --> 00:39:24,090
happen, but I don't think you can trust

882
00:39:24,090 --> 00:39:25,550
the new jobs report, right?

883
00:39:25,570 --> 00:39:26,910
You're going to have to look at ADP,

884
00:39:27,010 --> 00:39:27,970
you're going to have to look at initial

885
00:39:27,970 --> 00:39:29,030
claims, you're going to have to look at

886
00:39:29,030 --> 00:39:30,550
continuing claims, you're going to have to look

887
00:39:30,550 --> 00:39:32,710
at some more reliable sources of data, since

888
00:39:32,710 --> 00:39:35,130
this one is obviously going to be politically

889
00:39:35,130 --> 00:39:35,670
charged.

890
00:39:35,670 --> 00:39:38,230
And you've got the beginnings of a politically

891
00:39:38,230 --> 00:39:43,490
motivated Fed governors, right?

892
00:39:43,570 --> 00:39:46,310
There's been recent appointments, and you're starting to

893
00:39:46,310 --> 00:39:50,410
get this politicization of the Fed.

894
00:39:51,390 --> 00:39:55,010
Well, you didn't even get into the attempted

895
00:39:55,010 --> 00:39:58,470
firing of board governor Cook, which, you know,

896
00:39:58,690 --> 00:40:00,090
we were talking about things- That's about

897
00:40:00,090 --> 00:40:00,750
it, yeah.

898
00:40:01,230 --> 00:40:02,070
Did you mention it?

899
00:40:02,170 --> 00:40:02,770
I missed it, I'm sorry.

900
00:40:03,370 --> 00:40:06,330
But yeah, I mean, that's another item on

901
00:40:06,330 --> 00:40:07,650
a long list of things that are just

902
00:40:07,650 --> 00:40:09,050
completely, obviously illegal.

903
00:40:10,630 --> 00:40:13,630
But, you know, the court doesn't dismiss them

904
00:40:13,630 --> 00:40:14,090
right away.

905
00:40:14,730 --> 00:40:17,130
They might disagree, but they push it off

906
00:40:17,130 --> 00:40:19,350
to the next appellate court until it gets

907
00:40:19,350 --> 00:40:20,150
to the Supreme Court.

908
00:40:20,550 --> 00:40:23,030
And, you know, we'll see what happens.

909
00:40:23,030 --> 00:40:29,350
But luckily, most of the bond market reacts

910
00:40:29,350 --> 00:40:30,530
on market forces.

911
00:40:31,050 --> 00:40:33,550
And, you know, you might be able to

912
00:40:33,550 --> 00:40:35,970
adjust the short term part of the curve,

913
00:40:36,930 --> 00:40:39,630
but the reaction function on the longer end

914
00:40:39,630 --> 00:40:41,890
is going to be based on inflation and

915
00:40:41,890 --> 00:40:42,670
growth expectations.

916
00:40:43,210 --> 00:40:45,490
And it might have the exact opposite effect

917
00:40:45,490 --> 00:40:49,870
that the administration wants if they force policy.

918
00:40:51,130 --> 00:40:52,890
And, you know, it might have a self

919
00:40:52,890 --> 00:40:55,290
-regulating effect, or at least that's what I

920
00:40:55,290 --> 00:40:57,410
hope, and I think the market probably thinks.

921
00:40:58,050 --> 00:40:59,650
Hey, you know, there was one other big

922
00:40:59,650 --> 00:41:02,090
news event that occurred during the week.

923
00:41:02,450 --> 00:41:06,110
And of course, that was Taylor Swift got

924
00:41:06,110 --> 00:41:06,630
engaged.

925
00:41:07,710 --> 00:41:09,950
Who knew, right?

926
00:41:10,190 --> 00:41:13,330
The world stopped and took notice, apparently.

927
00:41:13,550 --> 00:41:14,270
So that's great.

928
00:41:15,390 --> 00:41:18,210
Hopefully many years of happy marriage when they

929
00:41:18,210 --> 00:41:19,090
tie the knot.

930
00:41:19,670 --> 00:41:23,690
In any case, we have a great tool.

931
00:41:24,810 --> 00:41:27,250
We have a good tool for the people

932
00:41:27,250 --> 00:41:28,890
looking to get married, an ebook.

933
00:41:30,010 --> 00:41:30,770
Go Patriots.

934
00:41:31,030 --> 00:41:31,330
Yeah.

935
00:41:31,570 --> 00:41:32,730
All right.

936
00:41:32,930 --> 00:41:34,230
We're into football season.

937
00:41:34,830 --> 00:41:36,830
Anyway, lots to talk about, lots to think

938
00:41:36,830 --> 00:41:37,170
about.

939
00:41:37,330 --> 00:41:38,890
It all factors into the way you think

940
00:41:38,890 --> 00:41:43,030
about your portfolio, your financial planning, lots to

941
00:41:43,030 --> 00:41:43,430
navigate.

942
00:41:43,750 --> 00:41:45,410
If you need help in the process, don't

943
00:41:45,410 --> 00:41:47,210
hesitate to reach out to our team.

944
00:41:48,030 --> 00:41:49,230
Guys, thanks very much.

945
00:41:49,810 --> 00:41:51,050
Keep striving for something more.

946
00:42:19,030 --> 00:42:29,710
Transcribed

947
00:42:29,710 --> 00:42:40,390
by

948
00:42:40,390 --> 00:42:45,610
https://otter.ai Readers should consult their own financial

949
00:42:45,610 --> 00:42:47,830
advisors or conduct their own due diligence before

950
00:42:47,830 --> 00:42:49,250
making any financial decisions.